The Odds Saints Super Bowl Derek Carr

  • The New Orleans Saints’ Super Bowl Odds improved from +4000 to +2500 at online sportsbook BetOnline after QB Derek Carr agreed to sign with the team.
  • Carr agreed to a four-year deal worth up to $150 million with the Saints on Monday.
  • New Orleans is also the +140 betting favorite to win the wide-open NFC South Division.

The New Orleans Saints saw their Super Bowl odds improve after former Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr agreed to sign with the team on Monday.

The financial terms of the deal were not announced but, according to a report from ESPN, Carr’s deal could be worth up to $150 million including up to $100 million in guaranteed money.

The 31-year-old will receive a fully guaranteed amount of $60 million upon signing and another $10 million in Year 3 of the deal. Carr will earn $60 million during the first two years of the contract.

Car refused to waive the no-trade clause in his previous contract and was released by the Las Vegas Raiders on Valentine’s Day.

The release prevented him from receiving a $40 million guarantee over the next two years and allowed him to immediately sign with an NFL team instead of waiting for the official start of the free agency period.

Saints’ Odds After Landing Derek Carr

New Orleans’s moved from +4000 to +2500 to win Super Bowl LVIII at BetOnline after news broke out. They are now tied with the Los Angeles Chargers with the 7th best odds to win it all next season and are ranked 11th in the latest Super Bowl odds boards.

The Saints also improved from +2000 to +1400 to win the NFC Conference. New Orleans also now has the 5th best odds to win the conference, which ties them with the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers at their current price.

At the online sportsbook Bet365, the Saints also established themselves as the favorites to win the NFC South Division. New Orleans is listed at the top of the divisional betting board at +140 odds, ahead of the Carolina Panthers who are at +250.

The Atlanta Falcons are third at +425 odds, while last season’s division winner Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at the bottom with their +450 odds.

Interestingly, it was the Carolina Panthers who were the +140 favorites to sign Carr at BetOnline. The Saints were next though at +150 odds, ahead of the New York Jets at +300, and the Bucs who were longshots at +900.

Raiders Failed to Live Up to Expectations

Expectations were high in Sin City last season after the team acquired Davante Adams in a blockbuster trade that reunited him with Fresno State teammate Carr. But, while Adams had an excellent first season in Las Vegas, Carr’s numbers regressed in 2022.

Adams caught a total of 1,516 yards last season, ranking him third in the entire league in that department. However, Carr ranked only 14th in passing yards with 3,522 and 12th in touchdowns with 24 while also ranking 30th overall with 14 interceptions.

That marked the first time in 5 seasons that Carr did not hit at least 4,000 passing yards and his 60.8% completion rate was his lowest since his rookie season. His 14 interceptions also matched a career-high that he set during the previous season.

The Raiders opened with a betting win total of 8 games which later jumped to 8.5 with the addition of Adams. Las Vegas also hit the betting boards as the -130 betting favorite to go over that projected win total but at the end of the 2022 regular season, the Raiders finished with only 6 wins and missed the playoffs.

Defense was the Raiders’ main issue last season. They ranked 28th overall in total yards allowed per game (365.6), 29th in passing yards allowed per game (242.9), and 26th in points allowed per game (24.6). The Las Vegas defense also did not create big plays as they were dead-last in the NFL in interception rate (1.02%) and sack rate (4.58%).

But with the Raiders missing the playoffs and the offense failing to rank in the Top 10 despite adding Adams, the team decided to move on from Carr, who had been their starter since 2014 when they drafted him 36th overall.

Wide Open NFC South

Although Carr’s addition did not make the Saints immediate Super Bowl contenders, New Orleans should figure heavily in an NFC South Division that is currently wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement.

Last season, Brady and his Buccaneers won the division with a sub-.500 record. At 8-9, the Buccaneers finished just one win better than the other three teams in the division, including the Saints. With Brady gone, Tampa Bay is not expected to keep its spot atop the NFC South in 2023.

If the season began today, the other quarterbacks in the NFC South would be Desmond Ridder for the Atlanta Falcons, P.J. Walker for the Carolina Panthers, and Kyle Trask for the Buccaneers. Although the teams could still swing for veterans like Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Rodgers, who could be available, nothing is certain.

The Saints meanwhile already have Derek Carr and he will be joining an offense with weapons like Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and Chris Olave.

Carr is also familiar with Saints head coach Dennis Allen. Allen was in his third year as coach of the then-Oakland Raiders when Carr arrived. In fact, Allen was one of those who pushed the team to draft Carr and made the decision to start him right away during his rookie year.

Since Drew Brees retired, the Saints have not found the right quarterback for them. Jameis Winston tore his ACL seven games into the 2021 season. The Saints re-signed him in 2022 after they failed to land Deshaun Watson. Winston suffered foot and back injuries at the start of last season and was inactive in Weeks 4 and 5. Andy Dalton started 14 games in 2022 and will be a free agent.

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Shane Acedera

Content covered on TSG: Blog and News

Shane turned a childhood love of the NBA into a successful writing career as he’s been covering basketball and other sports online since high school. Acedera branched out into sports betting over a decade ago and has been a reliable contributor to TheSportsGeek for the last five years. Shane loves to talk sports whether it’s with other enthusiasts or with his wife and three dogs.

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