NFL Draft Team First Pick Odds

  • The Houston Texans are the +240 betting favorites to pick first in the 2023 NFL Draft.
  • The Chicago Bears own the first pick but they are reportedly “leaning toward” trading the top pick after receiving offers from several teams.
  • Chicago is currently a +5000 to win the Super Bowl and +2000 to win the NFC Conference next season.

The rumors continue to heat up with less than two months to go before the 2023 NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears currently own the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. However, online sportsbook BetOnline says that the Texans are the +240 chalk to make the first selection at Union Station on Draft night or a 29.4% implied probability.

The reason? The Bears are reportedly leaning toward trading the number 1 pick and moving down in the Draft.

Bears Leaning Toward Trading the Top Pick

According to a report from ESPN, sources have told Adam Schefter that the Bears have been approached by several teams about a trade for the no. 1 pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, and Chicago is said to be “leaning toward moving the pick”.

Chicago entered Week 18 of the 2022 season with the no. 2 pick of the 2023 NFL Draft in the bag. But after the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts 32-31 in their final game, Chicago jumped Houston for the right to pick first in this year’s draft.

The Bears finished the 2022 regular season with a franchise-worst 10-game losing streak and ended with a 3-14 SU record, their second 3-win season since 2016.

Despite the disappointing year, the Bears saw progress from QB Justin Fields, who finished 64 yards shy of the Bears’ single-season quarterback rushing record. The Bears also finished with the league’s best rushing offense but were last in the NFL in passing.

Last month, Bears GM Ryan Poles reaffirmed the team’s commitment to Fields, whom they drafted 11th overall in 2021. Poles said that someone will have to “blow him away” to trade their franchise QB.

With the possibility that 8 to 12 NFL teams will be making a quarterback change next season, the teams that do not land the top QB free agents, like Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson, could be looking at trading for the top pick.

Per BetOnline, Carr is a +140 favorite to go to Carolina. Meanwhile, Las Vegas is favored to land Jimmy G. at +225 odds. Rodgers has not made an announcement after his darkness retreat but the same sportsbook has the Raiders as the -300 favorite to land his services. On the other hand, Jackson is listed at +300 to go to Atlanta.

Texans Favored to Pick First

The Texans were in the pole position to pick first in the 2023 NFL Draft for the majority of the 2022 NFL season before Chicago clinched it. Entering Week 18, it looked like they were a lock to secure that pick but a wild finish to the Texans’ final regular season game proved to be costly.

Houston TE Jordan Atkins caught a 28-yard pass from Davis Mills on fourth-and-twenty putting the Texans to within 30-31. They then went for the two-point conversion and succeeded, giving them a 32-31 win and an overall record of 3-13-1 SU, which ended up half a game better than the Bears’ mark.

Moving one spot lower won’t hurt Chicago, since they are projected to take one of the top defensive players. Plus, the Texans are expected to add a “deal sweetener” to make the Bears agree to move down. With Houston needing a franchise QB after losing Deshaun Watson, this one’s very plausible.

The Indianapolis Colts are next on the BetOnline odds boards, just slightly behind the Texans at +275. Indianapolis is coming off a 4-win season with 37-year-old Matt Ryan, so they are also in the hunt for a QB prospect.  

Las Vegas is next at +400 as the team recently released longtime QB Derek Carr. As stated earlier, the Raiders are also said to be in play for veterans like Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo but they will have plenty of competition.

The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers are both listed at +600 while the New York Jets are next at +800. The Washington Commanders, who just released Carson Wentz, are priced at +1000. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers who lost Tom Brady to retirement complete the BetOnline odds board at +1200 odds.

As for the Bears, BetOnline says they are a +450 to keep the no. 1 pick.

Bears Looking to Return to the Playoffs

Given that the main teams involved in this story are all looking to move up the odds boards, there’s a real possibility that the Top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft could be changing hands. Chicago is looking to return to the playoffs, and a draft day trade could help with this mission.

The Bears last won the NFC North Division in 2018 when they finished with a 12-4 SU record. But that campaign ended in the “double-doink” disaster against the eventual Super Bowl winners, Philadelphia Eagles, in the wild-card round.

Two seasons later, Chicago made its last playoff appearance where they lost to the Saints in the Wild Card round. The Bears moved on from QB Mitch Trubisky after that season and drafted Fields in 2021. However, the first two years of the Fields era have been tough with Chicago winning a combined 9 games.

Chicago is currently tied with the 5th worst odds to win Super Bowl LVIII at +5000. They also have the 4th lowest odds to win the NFC Conference, with only six teams having worse odds than them to win the NFC.

Meanwhile, the Texans are currently tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst odds to win the Super Bowl at +15000. The Colts are just one spot better at +10000 title odds. Houston and Indianapolis are also at the bottom of the AFC odds board at +8000 and +6000, respectively.

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Shane Acedera

Content covered on TSG: Blog and News

Shane turned a childhood love of the NBA into a successful writing career as he’s been covering basketball and other sports online since high school. Acedera branched out into sports betting over a decade ago and has been a reliable contributor to TheSportsGeek for the last five years. Shane loves to talk sports whether it’s with other enthusiasts or with his wife and three dogs.

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