NFL Awards Picks Mahomes Bosa Jefferon

  • Five out of seven betting favorites won their respective awards at the NFL Honors program on Thursday night.
  • Patrick Mahomes won his second MVP award after closing at -1400 odds to win the award.
  • The only non-betting favorites to win on Thursday night were NY Jets WR Garrett Wilson and NY Giants head coach Brian Daboll who won the OROY and Coach of the Year awards, respectively.

Patrick Mahomes and four other candidates who closed as betting favorites won their respective awards at the NFL Honors program on Thursday night.

Mahomes opened at +900 odds to win the MVP award this season at online sportsbook BetOnline behind Josh Allen (+500) and Justin Herbert (+550). But with the Chiefs winning 10 out of their last 11 regular season games, he closed at -1400 odds and was the overwhelming favorite heading into Thursday’s award night.

The Chiefs’ signal caller got 48 out of 50 possible first-place votes with Eagles QB Jalen Hurts and Bills QB Josh Allen getting the other two. Overall, Mahomes finished with 490 points with Hurts coming in second at 193. Allen ended up third with 151 and Joe Burrow of the Bengals was last among the four finalists with 128 points.

Mahomes led the NFL this season in passing yards (5,250), touchdown passes (41), and Total QBR (77.5) while leading Kansas City to a 14-3 SU regular season record and the top seed in the AFC playoffs. He also set a new NFL record with 5,614 total yards this season and steered the Chiefs to their third Super Bowl appearance in four seasons.

The MVP award was the second in Mahomes’ six-year career.  He is the 10th player in NFL history to win the award at least two times and the third-fastest to win two MVP awards at the start of his career, after Jim Brown and Kurt Warner.

Nick Bosa Wins DPOY in Best Season of Career

Meanwhile, San Francisco 49ers DE Nick Bosa was named the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Like Mahomes, Bosa was not the betting favorite when the betting lines for the DPOY award went live last year.

The 25-year-old opened with +1200 odds (tied for 5th) but marched his way to the top of the odds boards with a career-best season. Bosa ended 2022 with insurmountable odds before closing at -1100 odds.

The second overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft recorded 9 sacks as a rookie but his 2020 season was cut short by an ACL injury. Since returning, Bosa has been a beast with 34 sacks in the previous two seasons.

He led the NFL in sacks with 18.5 to become the first 49ers player to do so while eclipsing his previous high of 15.5 sacks which he set last season. Bosa also led the NFL in quarterback hits with 48 in 2022. He also forced two fumbles and was tied for second in tackles for loss during the regular season.

The 49ers lost starting QB Trey Lance to a season-ending injury in Week 2 and back-up Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13. But with Bosa leading the way, the 49ers leaned on their defense to finish the regular season with 10 straight wins and nearly made it to the Super Bowl with 3rd string QB Brock Purdy running the offensive show.

Justin Jefferson is OPOY

Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson was listed at +1800 odds when the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds boards went live. But after a career-high 193 receiving yards and the “catch of the century” in mid-November, Jefferson unofficially held the title as OPOY betting favorite before closing at -800 odds.

Jefferson led the NFL with 1,809 receiving yards, 184 targets, 128 catches, and 106.4 receiving yards per game. The All-Pro First Team selection also scored 8 touchdowns for the Vikings.

Smith Earns Comeback Player of The Year

Seattle’s Geno Smith was named the Comeback Player of the Year winner after leading the league in completion percentage (69.8%) while also throwing for a career-best 4,282 passing yards with 30 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions. He accomplished those numbers in his first season as a starter in seven years.

Smith was off-the-board when the Comeback Player of the Year award betting lines opened. But after the Seahawks opened the season with a 6-3 SU record, Smith emerged as the betting favorite to win the CPOY award. He, however, had the longest closing odds among the favorites at +160 because he faced stiff competition in Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley.

Jets Win Both Rookie Awards

The New York Jets were the only team to have two winners on Thursday night with rookie CB Sauce Gardner and first-year wide receiver Garrett Wilson taking home the Defensive Rookie of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year awards, respectively.

At -1200 odds, Gardner had the second shortest closest odds among the betting favorites and took home 46 first-place votes to beat Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson for the top defensive rookie honors. Gardner led the NFL with 20 passes defended while also recording 2 interceptions and 75 tackles.

Teammate Garrett Wilson edged out betting favorite Kenneth Walker II to win the OROY award. Walker entered Thursday at -130 odds to win the award and had more first-place votes than Wilson at 19 versus 18. However, the Jets’ wideout earned 19 second-place votes to Walker’s 8 to win the award.

Despite the Jets’ QB issues, Wilson finished with 83 catches to lead all rookies while also ranking 15th in the entire NFL with 1,103 yards, the most ever by a Jets rookie. Wilson’s star shined brightly especially after fellow rookie standout Bryce Hall suffered a season-ending injury.

Meanwhile, the other betting favorite not to win the award on Thursday was 49ers’ bench tactician Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan was the +150 chalk entering Thursday night but New York Giants’ Brian Daboll won the award for Coach of the Year. Daboll led the Giants to the postseason and their first playoff win in 11 years.

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Shane Acedera

Content covered on TSG: Blog and News

Shane turned a childhood love of the NBA into a successful writing career as he’s been covering basketball and other sports online since high school. Acedera branched out into sports betting over a decade ago and has been a reliable contributor to TheSportsGeek for the last five years. Shane loves to talk sports whether it’s with other enthusiasts or with his wife and three dogs.

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