- Tua Tagovailoa has fallen far back in the MVP betting boards after the Dolphins suffered their 4th consecutive defeat last weekend.
- Tagovailoa was at +500 odds when Miami was 8-3 but is at +12500 to +40000 with the Dolphins now at 8-7 on the season.
- Tua is even off-the-boards at SportsBetting.ag where their 2023 NFL odd boards is down to Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Jefferson.
This has been an up-and-down season for Tua Tagovailoa.
When healthy, Tagovailoa looked like one of the best QBs in the NFL and one of the top betting favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP award. But after his second trip to the NFL’s concussion protocol, the Dolphins’ QB has kissed his MVP hopes goodbye.
Tua’s MVP odds rose from +1000 to +500 after throwing 11 TD passes without an interception in his first five games back after missing a couple of games with a scary concussion. At that point, the Dolphins had won five straight games and were 8-3 SU on the season, the best record in the AFC East. However, Tua and the Dolphins have hit a brick wall since then.
Dolphins’ Path to the Playoffs
It’s simple for Dolphins: beat Patriots + Jets loss to Seahawks = Miami clinches a spot OR beat Pats and Jets get in without help.
More from @nflnetwork on Dolphins path, without Tua for the time being, to make the playoffs: pic.twitter.com/yDu562C2f5
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 27, 2022
With Miami losing four straight games, they have dropped to second behind the 12-3 SU Buffalo Bills at 8-7 SU in the AFC East race.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Miami’s playoff chances have decreased from 72% before their last loss to the Green Bay Packers to 62% heading to their final two games against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Week 17 and home against the New York Jets in Week 18. The Fins currently hold a one-game lead for 7th place in the AFC playoff race.
Of course, Miami makes the playoffs if they win out and finish at 10-7. They also make the postseason if they beat the Pats and the Jets lose to Seattle. They also enter the playoffs even if they lose to New England but win over the Jets in Week 18 and the Patriots also lose their Week 18 game against Buffalo.
However, if they lose their final two games or go 1-1 and finish in a tiebreaker with another AFC East team. If the Dolphins and Jets both finish at 9-8 SU, New York wins the tiebreaker by a season series sweep. Should Miami and New England end up tied at 9-8 SU, the Patriots would enter the playoffs with a better division record at 4-2 SU versus 3-3 SU.
Tua Back in the Concussion Protocol
From @NFLTotalAccess: #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is back in the concussion protocol. pic.twitter.com/8PcGrcP1W5
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 27, 2022
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol for the second time this season. According to head coach Mike McDaniel, Tua displayed and admitted to having concussion symptoms when he spoke with team doctors on Monday. The team immediately placed him in the protocol.
With Tua out, backup QB Teddy Bridgewater will take first-team snaps but McDaniel said it is too early to rule out Tagovailoa for Sunday’s game against the Patriots. However, the betting lines for that game have flipped with Miami going from a -2.5 chalk to the current +2.5 point spread underdogs on the road at Foxborough.
Like Miami’s Week 17 odds, Tagovailoa’s MVP odds have also dropped significantly. The Dolphins’ QB is now listed at +12500 to +40000 to win the award at the top NFL betting sites. At online sportsbook SportsBetting.ag, Tagovailoa is now off the board with their MVP race down to Patrick Mahomes (-600), Josh Allen (+600), Joe Burrow (+900), Jalen Hurts (+1100), and Justin Jefferson (+4000).
Mahomes has benefited from Jalen Hurts’ injury after Hurts had momentarily taken Mahomes’ spot as the 2023 NFL MVP favorite entering Week 15. Last week, however, it was the Chiefs QB back in the driver’s seat at -250 odds. Those odds are now much shorter and by the way, it looks right now, only Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are capable of catching up, if at all.
