2023-24 NFC South Division Betting Preview and Predictions

The NFC South promises to be one of the gloomiest divisions in football. It’s unlikely that the road to Super Bowl LVIII is going through the NFC South, but crazier things have happened.

Similar to last season, the division is not setting up to be the most competitive in the NFL. However, there will have to be a winner and a team representing the NFC South in the playoffs.

In 2022, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the division with a record of 8-9, while the Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons fell short at 7-10.

Currently, the Saints have the best Super Bowl LVIII betting odds in the NFC South at +3500. Despite having the best odds, there are 13 teams with better odds to win the Super Bowl than the Saints.

The starting quarterbacks in the NFC South are half veterans and half young, inexperienced signal callers looking to make an impression. Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr represent the former, while Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young are the latter. The starters in the NFC South could look considerably different by the end of the season.

Let’s take a look at the latest 2023-24 NFC South odds and prop bets from the top NFL betting sites and make our predictions on the NFC South for the upcoming season.

Over/Under Odds and Exact Wins For NFC South Teams

The following NFC South odds and prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

New Orleans Saints 2023 Season Predictions

Derek Carr takes over the starting job for the Saints after playing the first nine years of his career in Oakland and Las Vegas with the Raiders. Carr didn’t appear enthused about leaving the Raiders’ organization, but they had to cut some costs.

The Raiders replaced a veteran with another veteran, as Jimmy Garoppolo is the new starter in Las Vegas. Carr inked a four-year, $150 million contract with the Saints in the offseason. He is scheduled to become a free agent following the 2026 season¹.

Carr could be playing with a chip on his shoulder in 2023. After the Raiders gave up on him, expect Carr to come out looking to prove something. He was serviceable last season, with 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions.

However, Carr’s completion percentage was the worst it has been since his rookie season at 60.8 percent². The Raiders believed that Carr wasn’t getting any better at 32 years old. That said, Carr has some weapons to work with in New Orleans.

If they can stay healthy, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas should be a fantastic duo for the Saints. It’s a big if for Thomas, though, whose last full season was in 2019. Thomas was one of the best receivers in the league that season, as he had 149 receptions, 1,725 yards, and nine touchdowns³.

The offensive line could be problematic, but they might work out some kinks as the season progresses. Trevor Penning’s development at left tackle will be critical for the Saints. He is entering his second season after taking over the starting job late last season.

Derek Carr is ready to go for the Saints. 😤 pic.twitter.com/QKq7IjSRal

— theScore (@theScore) August 14, 2023

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Saints Win Total Odds and Prediction

The Saints will need an above-average defense for this season to go better than expected. After losing several key cogs from last season, it’s difficult to look for any improvements. Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Shy Tuttle are all on different teams in 2023.

Rookie Bryan Bresee should provide the defensive line with some strength up front. But, he isn’t expected to be a game-changer as a rookie. Ultimately, Bresee should develop into a solid contributor, but there are voids that have to be filled on this roster.

Don’t expect too much, but the Saints’ defense is likely to be fine enough. The problem is that the defense has to be better than fine for the Saints to have success in the NFC. Also, keep in mind that they’ll be without Alvin Kamara for three games due to a suspension.

It could have been much worse after he assaulted someone in a nightclub in Las Vegas during Pro Bowl Weekend. The Saints catch a break with the light suspension, but will still be without him against the Tennessee Titans, Panthers, and Green Bay Packers to open the year.

There won’t be anything wrong with the Saints. They just won’t “wow” anyone, and should be vulnerable to an upset or two. Finishing the regular season without reaching double-digit wins is a reasonable expectation.

Saints Exact Win Total

We can most likely expect the Saints to compete for the NFC South title. This division could be a race to ten to win, but it’s probably not going to be required. Nine wins is probably the magic number in the NFC South.

Relying on Thomas staying healthy is asking a lot. If we knew that he’d play a full season, the Saints are a ten-win team. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him dealing with some ailment three or four weeks into the year.

Olave should have a big campaign, but he and Thomas on the field at the same time is key. Kamara, Olave, and Thomas would put a lot of pressure on defenses. It’s just how confident are you that they’re going to be together for a full season?

Expect a nine-win campaign for the Saints. They should fall just short of double-digit wins for a 9-8 season. This team is good, but not great.

Atlanta Falcons 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The Atlanta Falcons are looking to build on a 7-10 record from the last two years. After duplicating a seven-win season, expectations are higher for the Falcons now. In the final regular season game of 2022, Desmond Ridder outplayed Tom Brady with 224 yards and two touchdowns.

The former Cincinnati Bearcat had played in four games in his rookie season. He finished with 708 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions after taking over for Marcus Mariota⁴. Mariota was a liability, while Ridder didn’t cause any self-inflicted wounds.

That was enough to give Ridder the QB1 role entering the 2023 campaign. He is followed by Taylor Heinicke on the depth chart, which provides the Falcons with a decent option at backup. The Falcons should be in good shape with Ridder in this offense, though.

Ridder should develop a good rhythm with tight end Kyle Pitts and Drake London in the passing game. Mariota was unable to get Pitts involved in the offense last year, but Ridder should appreciate a big, athletic target.

If the Falcons’ passing game is serviceable, they should roll on the ground, which will allow the play action to open up downfield. The combo of rookie Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrelle Patterson will put up yardage. Robinson is expected to excel in this offense. The Texas Longhorn is the favorite to win the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Additionally, Robinson adds a layer to the passing game. He will play a role as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Robinson could also line up as a receiver in certain sets. They should win the time of possession battle often.

May we show you a Kyle Pitts TD? pic.twitter.com/r8Y2UThreZ

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) August 4, 2023

Falcons Win Total Odds and Prediction

The Falcons spent money improving their defense in the offseason. Losing cornerback Isaiah Oliver hurts the Falcons, but otherwise they should be deeper. Tre Flowers might turn into a key cog for the Falcons’ secondary.

Most of their money went to paying Calais Campbell, Jessie Bates, and David Onyemata. Jerry Gray has looked like a good acquisition for the secondary, too.

If two out of the three succeed, the Falcons will improve on their seven-win season. Fortunately, the offense should give the defense ample time to rest on the bench.

Ball control and time of possession is the forte of the Falcons. They try to beat teams with a thousand paper cuts. Ridder should be the perfect quarterback for this job. We have the Falcons eclipsing more than eight wins in 2023.

Falcons Exact Win Total

The Falcons are trending up, but they are not ready to be a top team in the NFC. However, the NFC South is a different story. They should have a chance to compete for the NFC South crown.

The offensive line has a chance to be a Top 10 unit in the NFL. Coupled with a deep backfield, the Falcons will move the ball on the ground. If Ridder is ahead of schedule in his development, the Falcons might surprise a few people.

Look for the Falcons to match the Saints with nine wins. While this isn’t the most competitive division, it should be a tight finish in December.

Carolina Panthers 2023 NFL Predictions

The Carolina Panthers were another one of the teams to finish 7-10 in the NFC South last season. They decided to trade up for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Chicago Bears were happy to give up their first to acquire multiple picks and D.J. Moore.

Surrendering draft picks and Moore had to sting. Since entering the league in 2021, Moore has been the top receiver for the Panthers. He will be missed, but the Panthers used the top pick to draft what they expect to be a franchise quarterback.

Bryce Young was selected with the No. 1 overall pick out of the University of Alabama. Young enters the NFL following a prolific collegiate career, which included a national championship and Heisman Trophy.

Additionally, Young broke the single-season passing yards and touchdown record at Alabama⁵. The Panthers drafted him with the inclination that he can have a prolific career in the NFL, too. Head coach Frank Reich isn’t wasting any time, as Young is atop the depth chart ahead of Andy Dalton.

With Moore in Chicago, Adam Thielen and DJ Shark figure to take on a prominent role in the offseason. Also, former Philadelphia Eagle Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard should give the Panthers solid depth in the backfield.

The offensive line was better than expected last season. They were projected to be one of the worst offensive lines in football, but held their own. If this unit is going to go from mediocre to good, Brady Christensen must be better at left guard.

.@Panthers fans are ready for Bryce Young 🔥

📺: #NYJvsCAR on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXevVUR pic.twitter.com/nrhoeIDqC0

— NFL (@NFL) August 12, 2023

Panthers Win Total and Prediction

The Panthers could win the division or finish last. It’s a wide open fight in the NFC South. The Buccaneers, who we are going to get to next, likely won’t allow the Panthers to finish last, though.

In our opinion, the Panthers are a year or two away from really competing. This season is a transition year of sorts, but Panthers fans should begin to see change in the near future. Before the Panthers take off, there are improvements required to their offensive line.

The defense has steadily improved over the last two years, with Frankie Luvu, Derrick Brown, and Brian Burns anchoring a well-balanced group. However, the Panthers are a couple years away from having a lockdown defense.

The Panthers likely move sideways this year. In 2024, the team should be well-prepared to show significant gains, but this year is for Young to develop a rapport with the offense.

Panthers Exact Win Total

As we just said, the Panthers are likely moving sideways. Young needs a year to acclimate himself with the NFL. Additionally, there are a couple of pieces on the offensive line that could be improved.

The Falcons and Saints should be slightly better than last year. The Panthers will get there, but not quite yet. Another seven-win campaign sounds accurate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 NFL Predictions

Oddsmakers are being generous with the Buccaneers’ 2023-24 NFC South odds. It’s going to be difficult for the Buccaneers to scratch seven wins.

Currently, the Buccaneers are in the midst of a quarterback competition in training camp between Baker Mayfield and former Florida Gator Kyle Trask. Mayfield should ultimately grab the starting job and run with it until he falters.

The 28-year-old Sooner has spent time with the Panthers and Rams in the last two years. In 12 games, Mayfield passed for 2,163 yards, 10 touchdowns, and eight interceptions⁶. Late last season, he filled in for the Rams due to quarterback injuries.

Whether it’s Mayfield or Trask, the Buccaneers are regressing without Tom Brady. Even with Brady, it was clear that the Buccaneers lost plenty of shine from their Super Bowl team in 2021. The veterans didn’t look engaged or interested in winning games.

Despite capturing the NFC South title, Tampa did it with a record of 8-9. That isn’t something to be proud about. The rest of the division was so weak that the Buccaneers won by default without much effort.

Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return for the Buccaneers,  as does Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs and slot receiver Russell Gage. However, Mayfield or Trask, who has no starting experience, is throwing the ball up.

Baker Mayfield dropping dimes 🎯👀

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/rOwOLILjtO

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) August 11, 2023

Buccaneers Win Total and Prediction

The defense will need to exceed projected expectations for the Buccaneers to be competitive. Tampa is depending on many young newcomers to step up on the defensive side of the ball. The offense is aging, while the defense is relying on inexperienced players to fill in for depth.

Vita Vea returns to Tampa Bay for some veteran guidance, but the defense lacks punch on the edge. Generating a pass rush should prove to be difficult for the Buccaneers. And with the offense not inspiring much confidence, this is not a winning football team.

In conclusion, the Bucs are not in a position to be competitive. We have Brady’s former squad falling to win seven games.

Buccaneers Exact Win Total

If the Buccaneers won eight games with Brady, where do we see this team with Mayfield under center? Mayfield doesn’t have to be terrible, but it’s hard to expect the same production.

Expect Evans’ motivation to drop after the season begins to go awry for the Buccaneers. Mayfield needs Evans, but we can’t see him giving it his all with Brady retired. The locker room is not going to be what it once was in Tampa Bay.

All things considered, the Buccaneers appear like a five-win team. There isn’t enough depth or motivation from the veterans to take a run at the NFC South.

2023 NFC South Divisional Winner Odds

The following NFC South odds are courtesy of BetUS:

From our assessment of the NFC South odds, the Saints and Falcons should be vying for the divisional crown. If Young lights the league up right away, then the Panthers are in business.

However, he isn’t working with a strong enough offensive line and elite weapons around him. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence took his hits in his rookie season, and Young show follow a similar trajectory with the Panthers.

The NFC South is not the most talented division in football. However, we see the divisional race going down to the final week of the season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Saints and Falcons finish with the same record at 9-8.

𝗪𝗼𝘄: #Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson showed amazing skills here.

Dusted LB Troy Andersen on the route than making a spectacular catch on an overthrow 🔥

(🎥 @FalcoholicKevin) pic.twitter.com/2uHS31FujT

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) July 28, 2023

Who has the tiebreaker? We are leaning towards the Falcons. Atlanta’s running game is set to be a dominant force between Robinson and Allgeier in the backfield.

Ridder just has to avoid making mistakes and taking what the defense gives him. He did an excellent job of this in his limited work in the league as a rookie.

Consider wagering on the better value at football betting sites, with the Falcons winning the NFC South in 2023-24.

NFC South Finishing Position

We have the Saints, Panthers, and Buccaneers finished behind the Falcons in the NFC South. The division is wide open, but the Buccaneers should be too far behind to contend. They have the worst odds at +800 to win the division.

The best value on the board of these NFL prop bets has to be the Panthers to finish third. At +220 odds, the Panthers offer the best odds from our NFC South predictions. 

The Saints have +225 odds of finishing second. However, we have more confidence in the Panthers at No. 3, while the Saints and Falcons battle it out for the divisional crown.

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