- Nate Diaz’s odds against Khamzat Chimaev have shortened from +775 in the opening boards to +700 in the latest BetOnline board.
- 97% of the early bets have been on Diaz and he is already a six-figure liability at BetOnline.
- Juliana Pena was a +700 underdog when she defeated Amanda Nunes at UFC 269.
Nate Diaz opened as a massive betting underdog against Khamzat Chimaev. One month after the betting lines opened, the odds have moved – but just a bit, in Diaz’s favor. Still, the former TUF winner is a huge bottom dog against the still-unbeaten contender.
But while Diaz is the overwhelming underdog on the betting boards, he is an insanely popular bet at the internet betting site BetOnline.
Nate Diaz Already a Six-Figure Liability at BetOnline
Countdown for #UFC279 begins.
Khamzat Chimaev -1400 v Nate Diaz +700.
As I said when this fight opened, I believe this will be the biggest #UFC decision in history of @betonline_ag .
Early action supports this.
97% of early bettors on Diaz
Already 6 figure liability
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) August 21, 2022
Diaz has closed as the betting underdog in all but one of his last dozen fights. But he’s not closed at more than +385, the price at which he entered the fight against Leon Edwards the last time out. Meanwhile, Chimaev has been the betting favorite in all of his MMA fights but has never closed better than the -1050 he fought Rhys McKee with.
The big disparity in odds has not prevented bettors from taking their chance on Diaz. According to the online sportsbook BetOnline, 97% of the early bets have been wagered on Diaz, who is currently listed at +700 odds. Last month, Diaz opened at +775 odds at the same sportsbook.
Here are the opening odds for Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev:
Nate Diaz +775 (31/4)
Khamzat Chimaev -1100 (1/11)(odds via @betonline_ag) 👀 #UFC279 pic.twitter.com/aZOWXFlZiu
— Chamatkar Sandhu (@SandhuMMA) July 19, 2022
Meanwhile, Chimaev hit the opening betting boards at -1100 odds. Those odds ballooned to -2000 during the first couple of days after it went live despite the fact that Diaz was getting more than 90% of the early tickets. Right now, Borz stands at -1400 odds with less than three weeks to go before UFC 279.
BetOnline’s Dave Mason says that if the current betting trends continue, this bout could be the biggest decision in the sportsbook’s history, as far as MMA betting is concerned. Mason adds that with still 18 days left before fight night, Nate Diaz is already a six-figure liability at the said online betting sites.
Biggest Upset in UFC History
From a betting perspective, Shana Dobson holds the biggest upset in UFC history.
She entered her 2020 bout with Maria Agapova as a (+950)(19/2) underdog.#UFCVegas19 pic.twitter.com/u2i8WvouOy
— Andy Hickey MMA🇮🇪 (@AndyHickeyMMA) February 20, 2021
The biggest betting upset in UFC history was when Shana Dobson defeated Maria Agapova in 2020 at +950 odds. On the other hand, Holly Holm opened at +825 odds when she defeated Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 in 2015. Meanwhile, Matt Sera was the +800 bottom dog when he shocked Georges St. Pierre at UFC 69 in 2007.
Nate Diaz beating Khamzat Chimaev at his current +700 odds may not be the biggest upset in the history of the UFC. However, it would have the same weight as Julianna Pena defeating Amanda Nunes at UFC 269 as the Venezuelan Vixen entered the fight at a similar +700 odds. It would also probably be, as Dave Mason said, the biggest decision in BetOnline UFC betting history.
Nate Diaz is just 4-6 in his last 10 bouts while Khamzat Chimaev is unbeaten in 11 bouts, including five in the UFC. Diaz has not fought since June 2021 while Chimaev just fought last April 9th. Sure it looks lopsided, just as the odds are putting it right now.
But remember that Diaz was losing badly when he wobbled and hurt Leon Edwards late in their UFC 263 bout. Had he gone after Rocky, who knows what would have happened. Similarly, Edwards was losing badly against Kamaru Usman last weekend at UFC 278. Edwards caught Usman with a head kick with one minute to go in Round 5. And now he’s the new UFC welterweight champion.
