On Sunday, February 26, the 29th edition of the Screen Actors Guild Awards will celebrate the best in TV and Film live from the Fairmount Century Plaza in Los Angeles, CA.
This premier awards show is considered by many to be the lead-in to the Academy Awards which takes place on March 12, 2023. In fact, there is some overlap between awards won at the SAG Awards and the Oscars.
The SAG Awards consists of 13 major categories for TV and Film, which you can bet on at the top entertainment betting sites. We’ll take a look at these categories and make our 2023 SAG Awards predictions.
Where To Watch The 2023 SAG Awards
The SAG Awards will stream live on Netflix’s YouTube channel on Sunday night at 8:00 p.m. EST. Netflix signed a multiyear deal with the SAG Awards to be the exclusive broadcaster1.
This means that the SAG Awards will no longer be on TNT and TBS, which marks the first time in 25 years that a different broadcaster has the rights to this awards show.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards are coming to Netflix!
Starting in 2024, The SAG Awards will stream live on Netflix globally — and you can catch this year’s ceremony, live Feb. 26 on Netflix’s YouTube channel. pic.twitter.com/5WvhgKSIjW
— Netflix (@netflix) January 11, 2023
2023 SAG Awards Odds
The following SAG Awards betting odds are courtesy of BetUS.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role Odds and Pick
| Actor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brendan Fraser (The Whale) | -150 |
| Austin Butler (Elvis) | +225 |
| Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) | +250 |
| Bill Nighty (Living) | +3300 |
| Adam Sandler (Hustle) | +5000 |
The SAG Award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role is a two-actor race between Brendan Fraser and Austin Butler. Colin Farrell is on the outside looking in, but shouldn’t bet outright dismissed.
Butler was able to upset Farrell at the BAFTA Awards this past weekend as he took home the leading actor award over the favored Farrell2.
Fraser was also nominated, but wasn’t respected as strongly by oddsmakers as he is at the SAG Awards. The leading man in The Whale had long odds to win in London at the BAFTAs.
However, he is the favorite to win best male actor in a leading role a week later at the SAG Awards. Fraser is also a strong candidate to win an Oscar for his portrayal of Charlie in The Whale.
Charlie is an English teacher who lives alone, estranged from his family. He allows his health to deteriorate through depression and becoming severely overweight.
In an attempt to reestablish a relationship with his daughter, Charlie vows to make a difference in her life. The film is an emotional rollercoaster with Fraser making viewers forget it’s a movie at times.
Fraser’s peers have already spoken highly about his performance. During the Venice Film Festival in September, the audience brought him to tears following a 6-minute rousing applause3.
The comeback tour for Brendan Fraser is nearly complete. It’s likely that the SAG-AFTRA votes in his favor. Expect him to collect a SAG Award and be in a strong position to win an Oscar for his performance.
Congratulations to the nominees for Female Actor in a Leading Role: Cate Blanchett, @violadavis Ana de Armas, Danielle Deadwyler and Michelle Yeoh! We’re in for an amazing show! ✨🎉 #sagawards pic.twitter.com/QUMhCJZ0KQ
— SAG Awards® (@SAGawards) January 11, 2023
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role Odds and Pick
| Actress | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -135 |
| Cate Blanchett (TAR) | -105 |
| Danielle Deadwyler (Till) | +3300 |
| Viola Davis (The Woman King) | +2200 |
| Ana de Armas (Blonde) | +3300 |
There are two women that are in a tight race to win the SAG for outstanding female actor in a leading role. Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis, and Ana de Armas are deserving of nominations, but Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett are in their own sphere for this award.
Blanchett is coming off a win at the BAFTA Awards in London, as she scored the award for best leading actress4. The Australian was favored by oddsmakers to win the BAFTA. However, she is not the betting favorite to win the same award in Los Angeles at the SAG Awards.
Michelle Yeoh of Everything Everywhere All at Once is favored atop the SAG Awards odds. Yeoh’s performance in the film has been well-received by the public and critics.
She plays Evelyn Quan Wang in this crazy adventure comedy. Wang enters the multiverse for a wild ride to save the world with her newfound superpowers.
There is a lot going on in this film, whereas TAR is all about Cate Blanchett’s character. Blanchett plays Lydia Tar, a power-hungry orchestral conductor with narcissistic tendencies.
As a result of her self-serving interests, her relationships and life begin to deteriorate. Blanchett does a terrific job of carrying this film from the beginning to the end.
It only took 30 minutes or so for the audience to dislike her pretentious character. Director Todd Field wanted this unlikable character out of Blanchett and she delivered. Yeoh was great too, but Blanchett is a stronger bet at -105.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor In a Television Movie or Limited Series
| Actor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Evan Peters (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story) | -300 |
| Paul Walter Hauser (Black Bird) | +175 |
| Taron Egerton (Black Bird) | +1000 |
| Steve Carell (The Patient) | +1400 |
| Sam Elliot (1883) | +2200 |
Black Bird has two nominations for outstanding actor at the SAG Awards. Taron Egerton and Paul Walter Hauser are both on the nomination list.
However, comedian, Hauser, is the only underdog with realistic odds of winning. Yet, he is anything but a comedian in Black Bird.
Paul Walter Hauser plays rapist and serial killer Larry Hall in the Apple TV+ crime drama. Hall murdered up to 40 women from 1981 to 1994.
His crimes spanned across more than 12 states, including Michigan, Illinois, and Iowa5. In the show, Black Bird, authorities believe that Hall is responsible for killing 14 women, though only one body was recovered.
Egerton’s character, James Keene, transfers prisons to befriend Hall in an attempt to garner confessions. As a reward, Keene would earn an early release from prison. The real James Keene worked on the series as a producer6.
It isn’t easy going from a comedic actor to an unhinged serial killer. That said, Paul Walter Hauser manages to nail the performance. From the voice to his bizarre nuances, he hits the mark.
Unfortunately for Paul Walter Hauser, he has serious competition for this award. Evan Peters, the favorite to win, portrays one of the most prolific murderers in American history, Jeffrey Dahmer. Dahmer was a serial killer, rapist, and cannibal, with 17 murders between 1978 to 19917.
The Netflix series didn’t come without any controversy. Families of Dahmer’s victims were not informed about the series before it was released.
The mother of a Dahmer victim, Tony Hughes, was upset that Evans did not mention the victims in his victory speech at the Golden Globes8.
After scoring a Golden Globe for his portrayal of Dahmer, Peters is favored to win a SAG Award. Although I prefer Paul Walter Hauser’s performance, I believe the SAG voters will play it safe and give this award to Peters.
It’s time to announce the nominees for Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series 🎉 a huge round of applause to Emily Blunt, @jes_chastain, Julia Garner, @NiecyNash and @AmandaSeyfried. #sagawards pic.twitter.com/kZ8mPg01W1
— SAG Awards® (@SAGawards) January 11, 2023
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
| Actress | Odds |
|---|---|
| Amanda Seyfried (The Dropout) | -375 |
| Niecy Nash-Betts (Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story) | +250 |
| Jessica Chastain (George & Tammy) | +1800 |
| Emily Blunt (The English) | +1800 |
| Julia Garner (Inventing Anna) | +1600 |
There are five women nominated to win the best actress award in a television movie or limited series. However, Niecy Nash-Betts and Amanda Seyfried are likely alone going into Sunday night.
Upon further evaluation, Seyfried is probably on her own island for this SAG Award. Seyfried portrays Elizabeth Holmes, the disgraced former CEO of Theranos.
The Stanford dropout claimed that her company could diagnose a number of illnesses simply from a blood sample. Holmes’ Theranos was valued at $9 billion in 2014, but she was convicted by a jury of fraud eight years later9.
If you have ever heard Holmes speak, you know it would require a certain actress to get her deep voice right. Getting her mannerisms down was going to be a huge task as well.
However, Seyfried made it look easy, as she was able to capture Holmes’ deep baritone voice and facial expressions. For that ability alone, Seyfried is going to get the most votes.
In Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, Niecy Nash-Betts is Glenda Cleveland, a neighbor of Jeffrey Dahmer in his apartment. While Nash-Betts does well, her performance is not as memorable as Seyfried’s effort.
It’s tough to steal the spotlight away from Seyfried, who is the focal point of The Dropout. Nash-Betts was good in a supporting role, but The Dropout is all about Seyfried. Expect her to get the nod for this award.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
| Actor | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | -1000 |
| Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin) | +450 |
| Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) | +1600 |
| Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) | +2000 |
| Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) | +5000 |
Ke Huy Quan is heavily favored to win the SAG Award for outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role. His biggest opponents are from The Banshees of Inisherin.
Quan appears to be in a league of his own for this category. While The Banshees of Inisherin have two nominations, Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson, Quan should be in the clear.
Gleeson does a fine job as Colin Farrell’s friend turned ex-friend, but you have to believe Quan’s peers reward him for his effort in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
As the onscreen husband of Michelle Yeoh, their chemistry is undeniable. He doesn’t take away the spotlight from Yeoh, but does enough to get attention. Look for Quan to get plenty of attention at the SAG Awards.
Quan most recently won a Golden Globe in this same category as best supporting actor. He is the first actor of Asian descent to win a Golden Globe for this category, in the last 40 years10.
The laundromat owner in Everything Everywhere All at Once is looking at another prestigious award this weekend. This isn’t the best value, but Quan is the smart bet for this category.
✨Let’s go girls!✨
The nominees for Female Actor in a Supporting Role are @ImAngelaBassett, Hong Chau, Kerry Condon,@JamieLeeCurtis and Stephanie Hsu🎉 #sagawards pic.twitter.com/nRTR2y2pCB
— SAG Awards® (@SAGawards) January 11, 2023
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
| Actress | Odds |
|---|---|
| Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) | -225 |
| Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) | +175 |
| Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | +1600 |
| Hong Chau (The Whale) | +2000 |
| Stephanie Chau (Everything Everywhere All at Once) | +2200 |
Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are in a dead heat to win the best supporting actress award at the SAG Awards. Both are well ahead of the competition according to the SAG Awards odds.
Bassett is favored to win at -225, but Condon is not far behind at +175. Condon is coming off a win for best supporting actress at the BAFTA Awards in London11. She beat out Dolly de Leon, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Bassett for the award. Can Condon do it again over Bassett?
These are two very different films, but two terrific performances from Condon and Bassett. The Banshees of Inisherin wouldn’t get nearly as much attention, as it has received, without the performance of Condon.
She is a standout alongside Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson in the film. This category is a coin flip against Bassett. In that regard, it does not make much sense laying -225 on the Wakanda Forever star.
In a close race to the wire, always take the better price. Condon winning best supporting actress at +175 is a solid value bet in this spot.
Other 2023 SAG Awards Predictions
Here’s a quick rundown of our picks for the rest of the 2023 SAG Awards. Betting odds are courtesy of BetUS:
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture Odds and Pick
There are multiple actors in Everything Everywhere All at Once that deserve recognition at the SAG Awards. While they all won’t win individual awards, expect to see the cast win this category.
SAG Awards Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
At BetUS, this category is listed as the best stunt ensemble in a comedy or drama series. However, the official name of the category is stunt ensemble in a television series. We have to note this to avoid any confusion.
With that out of the way, we likely have a three-show race between House of the Dragon, Andor, and The Boys. The Boys at +650 looks like a tempting bet. Their true SAG Awards odds should probably be in the +250 range.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Who do you have to win this category: Top Gun: Maverick or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever? There are many that believe Tom Cruise was snubbed for not receiving any nominations.
That being said, Cruise and his team working on Top Gun: Maverick should get some recognition in the stunt ensemble category.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman has not been ignored for his role in Ozark since 2017. However, Bob Odenkirk of Better Call Saul is favored to win this category. Bateman will see some votes, but likely not enough to beat Odenkirk.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series Odds and Pick
Jennifer Coolidge is favored to win at -250. Her portrayal of Tanya McQuoid in White Lotus got her the nomination for best performance by an actress in a drama series.
The odds might point towards her winning. However, there is a lot of value to consider on Zendaya in Euphoria. She is worth taking with her odds at +300.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series Odds and Pick
Jenna Ortega has received plenty of hype and attention for her role in Wednesday. The Addams Family adaptation has been well-received, but Ortega is an underdog to win at +600.
The most likely winner has to be Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary. The 20-year-old Ortega might be a rising star, but Brunson should win this category at the SAG Awards.
Thank you @SAGawards for the #OutstandingEnsemble nomination.#BetterCallSaul#SagAwards
💙🙏 pic.twitter.com/WYGZUwgdcl— Patrick Fabian (@PatrickFabian) January 11, 2023
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series Odds and Pick
The White Lotus and Better Call Saul should be in the driver’s seat for this category. Expect The White Lotus to edge out Better Call Saul for the win.
SAG Awards Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series Odds and Pick
This is not the first time that Bill Hader has been nominated for an award for his role in Barry. Is he going to add another award to his mantle? Not if Jeremy Allen White of The Bear has anything to do with it.
SAG Awards Outstanding Ensemble by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series Odds and Pick
Abbott Elementary is the most logical pick at -450. However, there is enough doubt in this category to consider better odds.
The Bear might be a surprise contender at the SAG Awards in 2023. With odds of winning at +650, that is too much value to pass up.
Sources
1 How to Watch the 2023 SAG Awards Live. Retrieved From “https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/how-to-watch-sag-awards-netflix”
2 2023 Film Leading Actor | BAFTA Awards. Retrieved From “http://awards.bafta.org/award/2023/film/leading-actor”
3 Brendan Fraser Breaks Down in Tears as ‘The Whale’ Gets Huge 6-Minute Standing Ovation in Venice. Retrieved From “https://variety.com/2022/film/news/brendan-fraser-cries-the-whale-venice-standing-ovation-1235337836/”
4 Film in 2023 | BAFTA Awards. Retrieved From “http://awards.bafta.org/award/2023/film/”
5 How Many Girls Did Larry Hall Kill? How Many Bodies Were Found? Retrieved From “https://thecinemaholic.com/people-larry-hall-killed/”
6 Where Is James Keene Now? ‘Black Bird’ Is Based On His Memoir. Retrieved From “https://www.bustle.com/entertainment/where-is-james-keene-now-black-bird”
7 Jeffrey Dahmer | Crime Libary | Serial Killers. Retrieved From “https://www.crimemuseum.org/crime-library/serial-killers/jeffrey-dahmer/”.
8 Jeffrey Dahmer Victim’s Mom Slams Evan Peters Over Golden Globe Win. Retrieved From “https://www.tmz.com/2023/01/12/evan-peters-golden-globes-win-slammed-jeffrey-dahmer-victim-mom/”
9 Theranos scandal: Who is Elizabeth Holmes and why was she on trial? Retrieved From “https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58336998”
10 ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’ actor Ke Huy Quan wins Golden Globe for best supporting actor in a movie. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/everything-everywhere-actor-ke-huy-quan-wins-golden-globe-best-support-rcna65133”.
11 Kerry Condon beats Dolly de Leon, other noms for BAFTA Best Supporting Actress. Retrieved From “https://www.philstar.com/entertainment/2023/02/20/2245922/kerry-condon-beats-dolly-de-leon-other-noms-bafta-best-supporting-actress”
