- According to oddsmakers, the Miami Heat are the most likely landing spot for Damian Lillard in 2023-24.
- Star forward Jimmy Butler reportedly informed the Heat that trading for Lillard should be the team’s top priority in the offseason.
- Amid trade rumors, the Heat’s 2024 NBA Championship odds have shortened considerably.
Could Damian Lillard be packing up his bags for South Beach? According to oddsmakers at Bovada, the Miami Heat have established themselves as the clear favorites to land Lillard. Currently, Lillard has -400 odds to be traded to the Heat from the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Heat have an implied probability of 80% to acquire the seven-time NBA All-Star. Despite numerous individual accolades, Lillard has never been close to winning an NBA title. He has never reached an NBA Finals in his 11-year career. A trip to the Western Conference Finals in 2019 is the most success that he’s had in Portland.
As Lillard approaches 33 years old, the dynamic guard hopes to join a contender while still in his prime. Lillard is coming off a career-high season with 32.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field. He might be on the wrong side of 30, but Lillard is still one of the finest point guards in the NBA.
The Trail Blazers are under no obligation to part ways with Lillard. He has two years remaining on a four-year $176 million deal in Portland. However, with a player option for the 2024-2025 season, the Trail Blazers realistically would have one more season with Lillard.
Damian Lillard “only wants to play for the Miami Heat,” per @ShamsCharania pic.twitter.com/7AV8BPhKra
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 3, 2023
If the Trail Blazers aren’t ecstatic about their trade options at the moment, they could wait it out and evaluate their options closer to the start of the 2023-24 season or at the trade deadline. Dragging this out likely isn’t in anyone’s best interest, though.
Miami Heat Fresh Off Improbable Run To NBA Finals
Lillard would be joining a Heat team that is coming off a trip to the NBA Finals. Adding Lillard to the team would instantly make the Heat a significant contender to go back to the NBA Finals in 2024.
As a play-in team, the Heat had long odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy entering the playoffs. Following a loss to the Atlanta Hawks in the Play-In Tournament, the Heat had impossible odds at +37000.
A reminder that the Heat were +37000 to win the Finals after losing to the Hawks in the Play-In…
Here's some other bets with similar odds ⬇️
▪️ Carson Wentz to win MVP (+30000)
▪️ Cincinnati Reds to win the NL (+35000)
▪️ Colorado to win the CFB Natty (+40000) pic.twitter.com/xj3UT68pft— br_betting (@br_betting) May 31, 2023
Despite losing to the Denver Nuggets in five games, the Heat had a postseason run that not many people foresaw. After finishing eighth with a record of 44-38, the Heat elevated their play to beat the No. 1 seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the first round.
The Heat ran out of gas against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals. There probably wasn’t another team that was going to stop Jokic. However, it would have been interesting if they had an upgrade at point guard.
Gabe Vincent and Max Strus started in the backcourt, with Kyle Lowry coming off the bench for the Heat. Replace Vincent with Lillard and the Heat are a much different team.
Jimmy Butler Driving Force Behind Pursuit of Lillard
It comes as no surprise that Jimmy Butler supports a trade for Lillard. Butler and Bam Adebayo were left carrying the load for the Heat in the NBA Finals. They were the only players that were consistently contributing.
With Lillard in the backcourt, a considerable amount of weight would be lifted off his shoulders. When Butler says something the front office is going to listen. According to Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes, Butler approached the front office weeks ago.
“Jimmy Butler, I was told, let the Heat know as early as two weeks ago that Damian Lillard should be their No. 1 target this offseason.” Haynes added, “The Miami Heat are going in full steam to try to accomplish that”.
A trade for Lillard will likely involve Tyler Herro in a three-team deal. The 23-year-old guard recorded 20.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in 67 regular season games. However, he played in only one playoff game before going on the injury report with a right-hand injury.
Tyler Herro has removed “Miami Heat guard” from his bio and changed his header pic.twitter.com/JxwRAYbG8V
— NBACentral (@TheNBACentral) July 2, 2023
Apparently, Herro already has one foot out of the door in Miami. In addition to reportedly telling people that he expects to be traded, Herro has edited his Twitter profile. Prior to this past weekend, he had “Miami Heat guard” and a header image of practicing in the Heat’s gym.
That is no longer present on Herro’s Twitter account, as the rumors continue to swirl regarding a trade for Lillard. Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin are worth watching, as well. The Heat likely want to retain Martin, but he may have to be included in the trade package for the Trail Blazers to budge.
The Heat’s 2024 NBA Title Odds On The Move
The 2024 NBA Championship betting markets were impacted over the past few days. As the Lillard trade rumors heated up, oddsmakers adjusted the Heat’s title odds fairly significantly.
Following the Nuggets’ win in Game 5 to clinch the 2023 NBA title, the Heat opened at +1600 to win the 2024 NBA Championship at Bovada. The Heat’s odds remained unaffected until recently.
Currently, the Heat are +900 to win the NBA Finals in 2024. With +900 odds, the Heat have the fifth-best odds to capture the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Denver Nuggets, and Boston Celtics are ahead of the Heat.
Lillard heading to the Celtics on a trade can’t be completely ruled out yet. The Celtics have the second-best odds to acquire Lillard at +550. While it is unlikely to happen, according to the odds, the Celtics are one of only a few teams that have the assets to make it work.
At +500, the Celtics own the second-best odds to win the 2024 NBA Championship behind the Nuggets. A trade for Lillard could possibly move the Celtics to +450 or better to surpass Denver as the favorite going into next season.
