- The Sacramento Kings are +230 underdogs in their first-round playoff series against the Golden State Warriors.
- That’s the longest odds for a No. 3 seed in a first-round playoff series in the last 30 years.
- Golden State defeated Sacramento 3-1 in four regular season meetings this season.
The Sacramento Kings set the record for the longest playoff drought in the history of the NBA at 16 seasons. By finishing 3rd in the Western Conference team standings this year, they ended that dubious streak. Now that they are in the postseason, they have set another mark.
The Kings have opened as +230 betting underdogs in their first-round Playoff series against the Golden State Warriors. That’s the longest opening series odds for a No. 3 seed in a Playoff matchup versus the No. 6 seed in the last 30 years.
Nobody Expected the Kings to Be Here
The season began with not many expectations for the Kings who won only 30 games last year. The team entered the 2022-23 campaign without a 40-win season since the 2005-06 campaign when they won 44 games.
But after starting the Summer League with a 2-0 record, this group of fans was laughed at when they predicted the team would win 40 games this year:
These Sacramento Kings fans were HYPED after a summer league win.
"We're getting 40 wins this year!" 😂pic.twitter.com/YmADtU56Pf
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) July 4, 2022
It turned out, they were correct.
Sacramento was given a low 34.5-win total by the top NBA sportsbooks before the season began. They cashed the OVER on that bet on their 60th game and with still 22 left to spare. Betting sites also gave the Kings a +450 odds to make the playoffs. They opened Sacramento with the longest odds to win the Pacific Division at +20000.
They also debuted with the worst odds to win the Western Conference at +25000 and hit the opening betting boards with the third-worst odds to win the 2022-23 NBA championship at +75000.
In fact, one top NBA sportsbook reported taking two futures bets totaling $18,000 last summer which would combine to win $10.3 million if the Kings win it all this season. That’s still 16 wins away if the Kings aren’t eliminated along the way.
And while the bets may not end up getting cashed, that online sportsbook is starting to sweat right now as the Kings have so far defied the odds.
The Kings finished the regular season with a 48-34 record and they could have easily taken the second seed from the Memphis Grizzlies.
Sacramento struggled to close out the season, going just 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played, including losses in each of their last three games. Had they won those final 3 games, they would have tied Memphis with 51 wins and would have been the 2nd seed because they owned the tiebreaker versus the Grizzlies.
Still, finishing as the 3rd seed and having an 18-win improvement versus the previous season is an impressive feat.
Dubs Have Dubious Road Record
Many top NBA sportsbooks are already counting out the Sacramento Kings in the postseason. As stated earlier, BetOnline has them as a +230 underdog to win their first round series against the Golden State Warriors.
However, the same sportsbook has Game 1 of that series as a pick’em game with Golden State currently listed at -1 at the spread line and -112 at the Moneyline.
The Warriors entered the season as the defending champions. As such, they opened with the best odds to win the title again this year at +550. But Golden State has had a turbulent season.
From the incident where Draymond Green punched Jordan Poole in practice to the injuries that they suffered along the way, it has not been the year that fans in the Bay Area and bookmakers predicted.
The Dubs struggled to make the Playoffs and, up until the last day of the regular season, their final seeding was undetermined.
But the Warriors still finished the regular season with a 44-38 mark, tied with the 5th-seeded Clippers. Despite being just the 6th seed in the West, many believe that the Warriors will turn it around during the Playoffs. After all, this is a veteran team that has been here many times before.
But if there’s one chink in Golden State’s armor that could work against them in their upcoming series against the Kings, it’s that they struggled to win away from home this year.
The Warriors were one of the best home teams in the league this season with their 33-8 SU mark. However, they were just 11-30 when playing on the road. With Sacramento having a homecourt advantage in the series, that could spell trouble for the defending champions.
Golden State won their regular season series 3-1 and defeated the Kings in Sacramento 119-87 last April 7th. The Kings, however, played that game without their top three scorers as Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, and Kevin Huerter took the night off. Overall, this season, Sacramento posted a modest 23-18 SU home record.
Warriors vs. Kings in Round 1 🍿
Who ya got advancing? 👀 pic.twitter.com/TukUKpzQIn
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) April 9, 2023
Can the Kings Beat the Warriors?
Aside from homecourt advantage, the Kings may have another edge against the Warriors. Head Coach Mike Brown was Golden State’s Associate Head Coach from 2016-2022 and was with the team during three championship runs.
Brown’s familiarity with the team could be a factor in a seven-game series. Brown surged as the overwhelming betting favorite to win Coach of the Year honors after the All-Star break and is a cinch to win the award.
During their four-game regular season series, Steph Curry led the Warriors in scoring with 33.0 points per game. Andrew Wiggins averaged 25.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.3 steals per game in three games played versus the Kings this season. Wiggins is expected to be back for Golden State in Game 1.
Meanwhile, De’Aaron Fox will lead the Kings against the Warriors. Fox averaged a team-high 25.3 points per game with 8.0 assists per game against Golden State. On the other hand, Domantas Sabonis also put up big numbers against the Dubs at 21.3 points and 16.7 rebounds per game.
Online sportsbook Bet365 is predicting the series to go six games at +175 and is picking the Warriors to win the matchup 4-2 at +240 odds. At the same sportsbook, Sacramento’s best odds to win the series is in 7 games at +500, which is just slightly better than the odds of Golden State sweeping at +575 odds.
