2023 NBA Finals Odds, Prop Bets, and Predictions

The 2023 NBA Playoffs are down to just two teams. In an unlikely matchup, the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets will square off for the top prize in professional basketball – the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.

Despite having to go through the Play-In Tournament, the Heat are still standing after a blowout Eastern Conference Finals victory in Game 7 over the Boston Celtics. In April, Miami had +12500 odds to win the NBA Championship at BetUS.

Betting on the Heat vs. Nuggets for the 2023 NBA Finals matchup before the Playoffs started also provided lofty odds. In other words, there weren’t too many bettors that had the Heat and Nuggets standing in June.

On Thursday, June 1, Game 1 of the NBA Finals tips off at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s check out the latest NBA Finals odds and prop bets at the top NBA betting sites. We’ll also make our predictions as to who will be the 2022-23 NBA Champions.

2023 NBA Finals Odds

The following NBA Championship betting odds are courtesy of BetUS:

The Nuggets are a large favorite to win the NBA title against the Heat. At -410 odds, the Nuggets have an implied probability of 80.39%. The Heat are not getting much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.

However, underdog status during the Playoffs is nothing new to the Heat. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Heat were heavy underdogs against the No. 1 seeded Boston Celtics. The Celtics were the fourth team in NBA history to claw back from a 0-3 deficit to force a Game 7.

There are still no teams to ever come all the way back and win the series, though. The Celtics were poised to be the first, but the Heat won as +240 underdogs in Boston at TD Garden. In any event, the Heat have a massive test ahead of them against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets.

Jimmy Butler: 30th pick in 2011 Draft & six-time All-Star

Nikola Jokić: 41st pick in 2014 Draft & five-time All-Star

Among all NBA players who began their careers in 1980 or later, Butler & Jokić are the only ones drafted 30th or lower to make at least 𝗳𝗶𝘃𝗲 All-Star teams. pic.twitter.com/mQZtU1AA6T

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) May 30, 2023

2023 NBA Finals Predictions

The Heat are the second No. 8 seed in NBA history to reach the Finals. However, a No. 8 seed has never won the NBA Championship before. Are they still going to be the focal point of your NBA betting strategy in the Finals?

This team is peaking at the right moment after failing to do the same last year. The Heat finished first in the Eastern Conference a year ago. They were two games ahead of the Celtics with a record of 53-29.

Miami traded for Kyle Lowry to give the backcourt a boost at the deadline. Despite the regular-season success, the Heat failed in the Eastern Conference Final against the Celtics. It was an unorthodox route to go back to the Conference Finals this year, but they made it work and then won Game 7.

Heat Peaking At The Perfect Time

The Heat were not in top form in the regular season. They notched a record of 44-38 to clinch a spot in the Play-In Tournament. Not peaking in the regular season was for the best. Now, the Heat are playing their best basketball when it matters the most in the Playoffs.

The Heat’s lineup is for the most part intact from last season. P.J. Tucker is with the Philadelphia 76ers, but Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Max Strus, and Lowry are on this roster. Tyler Herro is reportedly eyeing a return in Game 3 of the NBA Finals¹.

The analytic they won’t give you – the Miami HEAT are 100% Eastern Conference Champions. pic.twitter.com/ID5AyfJmKZ

— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) May 30, 2023

Defense is described as being the common denominator for having success in the postseason. If that is true, then it shouldn’t be any surprise that the Heat are in this position, despite being the No. 8 seed. The Heat were second in the regular season with 109.3 points allowed per game².

They just needed an offensive spark in the Playoffs to be a dangerous squad. The offense hasn’t flourished by any means, but 111.7 points per game has been good enough thanks to their defensive effort.

Life beyond the arc has been treating the Heat well. Miami is first in the Playoffs, with a three-point percentage of 39%³. If they can continue to hit from three, the Heat are going to have a chance in this series.

The Heat are second in the Playoffs with a point differential of +4.2. It goes without saying who has the best point differential. The Nuggets are well ahead of the rest of the NBA. Going into Game 1, the Nuggets own a point differential of +8.3⁴.

Do The Heat Have An Answer For Nikola Jokic?

Two-time MVP (and runner-up to Joel Embiid this year) Jokic has been playing on another level during this playoff run. He has been a point-getting-rebounding-assists machine for the Nuggets. The Heat pride themselves on their defense, but even this is going to be a daunting task.

The Los Angeles Lakers threw everything they had at Jokic and he still found a way to put the ball in the basket. There wasn’t a spot on the floor where Jokic wasn’t dangerous. Consequently, Jokic has posted some incredible numbers in the NBA Playoffs.

With this assist, Jokic now holds the record for most triple-doubles in a single NBA postseason 📊 pic.twitter.com/I1kQfuQDjE

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 23, 2023

Jokic enters the NBA Finals averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, 10.3 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Additionally, the Serbian is lighting the net on fire from three. With a 47.4% three-point percentage, the Heat must get in his face early and often⁵.

It is important to mention Jamal Murray when discussing the Nuggets’ success in the Playoffs. For the Nuggets to reach the NBA Finals, they needed him healthy and playing well. Murray has satisfied both requirements.

In his first Playoffs since 2020, Murray is averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. The 26-year-old former Kentucky Wildcat from Kitchener, Ontario, is also shooting at a high clip with a 47% field goal percentage⁶.

Nuggets Wear Down Heat For First NBA Title

The largest enemy of the Heat may not be Jokic in the NBA Finals. The Heat are coming off a hard-fought series against a talented Boston Celtics squad. Following a seven-game series against the Celtics, a little the Heat could be running on fumes.

Perhaps, this wouldn’t matter as much if the Heat weren’t going to Denver. The Heat are already tired, and now they are heading to a high-altitude destination. The thin and dry air should work against a tired Heat squad in the NBA Finals.

In addition to being fatigued, the Heat have to draw up a defensive plan that will be successful. Under the perfect conditions, we are sure that the Heat could do it. They have the personnel and defensive philosophy to slow down the Nuggets.

However, it is tough to see it after a long and fatigue-inducing series against the Celtics. The Heat should compete early on, and win a game or two, but the Nuggets are likely too much.

The Timberwolves, Suns, and Lakers couldn’t stop Jokic and the Nuggets. Do not expect the Heat to do this either. We are betting on the Nuggets to finish off the Heat in six games. If -410 odds is too rich for you, consider backing the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals in five or six.

2023 NBA Finals Prop Bets

We have more NBA Finals odds if you are interested in unique Heat vs. Nuggets prop bets. NBA betting on the Finals provides an opportunity for several different angles to attack the NBA Finals odds. All of the following NBA Finals odds and prop bets can be found at BetUS.

NBA Finals MVP Odds

With the Nuggets favored to win the NBA Finals, Jokic is predictably the odds-on favorite to win the MVP award. Jokic could probably have an average Finals and still be in the running for the MVP.

As long as the Nuggets win, he is going to be the clear No. 1 contender to win the NBA Finals MVP. Voters will favor Jokic regardless, because of what he has done in the NBA Playoffs.

Nikola Jokic’s averages this postseason:

29.9 points
13.3 boards
10.3 assists

And a 12-3 record so far 🤯 #NBAFinals presented by @YouTubeTV start June 1 on ABC. pic.twitter.com/ojyp8bBMdS

— NBA (@NBA) May 25, 2023

For instance, Kawhi Leonard was not at his best in the 2019 NBA Finals. However, he was the default option to win MVP after everything he did to lead the Toronto Raptors in the Playoffs.

It is the same thought process as Jokic this year. That being said, Jokic is unlikely to slow down in the NBA Finals. He has been playing like an MVP in all three Playoff series and should continue in this direction.

The best value bet to win the MVP might be Murray at +900 odds. The only thing that Murray has done wrong is playing in the shadows of Jokic. If Murray is absent in the Playoffs again this year, the Nuggets would have found it difficult to get past the Suns.

With that said, Jokic is the clear choice for this award and prop bet.

NBA Finals Leading Scorer Prop

If you don’t like Jokic at -300 odds, you can find other Jokic prop bets on NBA betting apps. The leading scorer NBA Finals prop bet has +110 odds for Jokic.

Jokic is the logical choice. He has been on a tear during the Playoffs. The 28-year-old native of Sombor, Serbia, is averaging 30 points per game in the playoffs.

He is coming off a 30-point performance against the Lakers. This was his sixth 30+ point effort in six of his previous nine outings, including 53 points on May 7 against the Suns⁷.

I am not going to argue against a pick on Jokic to be the leading scorer in the NBA Finals. However, there might be too much value to pass on Murray at +260 odds. Murray has been the most underrated player in the Playoffs.

Nikola Jokic & Jamal Murray have each scored 25 pts in the same game 7x this postseason.

That’s tied for the 2nd-most by any duo entering the Finals in NBA history.

2020 James & Davis LAL: 8
2023 Jokic & Murray DEN: 7
2012 Durant & Westbrook OKC: 7
1968 Baylor & West LAL: 7 pic.twitter.com/fQ2fyu6nLE

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 23, 2023

He has gone about his business methodically and efficiently over the last two months. Murray is also a big beneficiary of the passing ability of Jokic finding open lanes.

The 26-year-old Canadian is coming off a 25-point performance against the Lakers. He played a big role in the Western Conference Finals. In the four-game sweep, Murray averaged 32.5 points per game, with 30+ points through Game 3.

He has recorded at least 30 points in seven games in the 2023 NBA Playoffs⁸. Look for Murray to play a big role in the NBA Finals. He is a sneaky pick to be the leading scorer at +260.

NBA Finals Three Pointers Made Leader Prop

Are you not confident in Jamal Murray leading the NBA Finals in scoring? If not, you should be confident in Murray leading the series in three-pointers made.

This NBA Finals prop bet is total threes made and not the best three-point percentage. Therefore, players that aren’t scared of pulling up from three, have to be considered for this prop.

Murray led the Nuggets with 37 three-point attempts. In the regular season, Murray was sharp from three-point land. In 2022-23, he converted 39.8% of his shots after hitting 40.8% of his threes last season⁹.

If you want consistency, that is what you are going to get from Murray. He is converting 39.8% of his shots from three in the Playoffs. Overall, from the field, Murray is shooting 48% in 15 playoff games¹⁰.

Look for Murray to outduel teammate Michael Porter Jr. in the NBA Finals three-point race. Porter Jr. should be efficient, but Murray will likely have more attempts to pad his stats.

With the Heat collapsing on Jokic, Murray will have ample opportunities to connect from downtown.

NBA Finals Assists Leader Prop

Everything is pointing to Jokic lapping the field on total assists in the NBA Finals. Currently, Jokic is a massive favorite to finish with the most assists at -20000 odds.

If Jokic stays healthy, then he is going to win this prop bet. However, the chance of Jokic getting injured makes this a tough bet at -20000. That is the one caveat that you must be aware of when betting on this prop.

Nevertheless, Jokic has been a wizard with the basketball in his hands. We aren’t only talking about filling the bucket. Jokic’s vision has always been terrific, but he is in a different stratosphere recently.

In the regular season, Jokic averaged 9.8 assists per game. Through three series of playoff basketball, Jokic has notched 10.3 assists per contest¹¹. If there is an open player in a good spot, the two-time MVP is likely finding them.

Most rebounds + assists this playoffs:

353 — Nikola Jokic
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266 — Anthony Davis pic.twitter.com/pcPfiHTRNx

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 25, 2023

Butler has the second-best odds to win this prop at +2700. He averaged 5.3 assists per game through 64 games in the regular season¹². His postseason production has been in the same ballpark.

In other words, Jokic has -20000 odds for good reason. However, there is zero value in this prop bet. We are confident in Jokic, but going to pass at these odds.

NBA Finals Rebounds Leader Prop

The triple-double machine is heavily favored to lead the NBA Finals in rebounding. There are no surprises here. Jokic is the best rebounder in the NBA Finals by a wide margin.

In three of his previous four outings, he has pulled down at least 14 rebounds. In Game 1 against the Lakers, Jokic collected a staggering 21 boards.

Overall, Jokic had 11.8 rebounds in the regular season per game. In the 2023 NBA Playoffs, his production on the glass has risen to 13.3 points per contest¹³.

There aren’t any other elite rebounders in the NBA Finals that can compete with Jokic in this regard. Similar to assists, Jokic is alone in the discussion for most rebounds in the NBA Finals.

Likewise, there is no value on Jokic to win this prop bet. At -20000 odds, there is no room for him to get injured. We are confident in Jokic leading in assists and rebounds, but there is no value on the board.