- Aaron Judge is the +600 favorite at Bovada to lead the majors in home runs this season.
- Judge set the AL all-time record with 62 home runs last season and did so in dominant fashion, finishing 16 home runs ahead of 2nd place Kyle Schwarber.
- New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is next behind Judge at +900 odds.
New York Yankees’ outfielder Aaron Judge is the betting favorite to lead the majors in home runs this season.
Online sportsbook Bovada listed Judge as the +600 favorite to repeat as MLB’s home run leader this year. New York Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonso and Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are next at +900 odds.
According to BetOnline, Judge’s homerun over/under total is set at 44.5 with the under favored at -135 and the over currently listed at +105.
Meanwhile, Alonso’s homerun total has been set at 35.5 with the over going at -120 and the under at even money odds. Behind those two, Guerrero’s total at BetOnline is at 34.5 homers with the over currently pegged at -125 and the under at -105.
Interestingly, Mike Trout’s home run total at BetOnline is listed at 38.5 with both the over and under at -115 odds. Schwarber’s total is also at 38.5 but the under is favored at -125 odds while the over is at -105. Alvarez’s is set at 36.5 with the under at -125 and the over at -105.
It’s worth noting that the homerun title has been won by an AL player in each of the past four seasons. However, no player has led the majors in home runs during back-to-back seasons since Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011. Alex Rodriguez was the last player to lead the majors in home runs during three consecutive seasons.
All Rise, Aaron Judge just hit his second homer of the spring.
— Roundin’ Third Baseball Podcast 🎙 (@RoundnThird) March 26, 2023
All Rise, Again?
It doesn’t come as a surprise that Judge is favored to lead the majors in homers again this year. He appears to be locked in for another big year as he is coming off a strong Spring Training where he two home runs and a .350 batting average.
The New York Yankees’ slugger broke Roger Maris’ longtime AL homerun record with 62 dingers last season. Not only did Judge set the new AL standard in 2022, he also did it in dominating fashion.
Judge’s 16-homer gap between runner-up Kyle Schwarber was the largest in the majors since Jimmie Fox’s17-homerun margin in 1932. Judge also had 22 more home runs than the next player in the AL, giving him the largest gap by an AL player since Babe Ruth’s 27 in 1928.
He also became only the 4th player in MLB history to hit at least 62 home runs in a single season, joining Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa. Judge was the first Yankees player to lead the majors in home runs since Luke Voit had 22 during the COVID-19-shortened season. The last time that a Yankees player led MLB in home runs during a full season was Alex Rodriguez with 54 dingers in 2007.
Aaron was equally good on the road as he was at Yankee Stadium, with 32 home runs in 281 road at-bats. Judge had 30 homers in 289 at-bats in Yankee Stadium. During the playoffs, Judge hit two home runs in nine playoff games but batted just .139 as the Yankees were swept in the ALC by Houston.
But while there is no questioning Judge’s ability to hit homers, there are concerns about his ability to play a full season. Sure, he played in 148 and 157 games during the previous two seasons.
But remember, he played in only 28 of 60 in 2020, 102 games in 2019, and only 112 games in 2018. If Judge can stay healthy, then he has good value as a betting favorite.
Most regular season home runs since 2019:
Pete Alonso, 146 🔥🔥🔥
Aaron Judge, 137
Kyle Schwarber, 127
Eugenio Suárez, 126
Matt Olson, 123
Nolan Arenado, 113
Marcus Semien, 111
Mike Trout, 110
Rafael Devers, 108
Manny Machado, 108 https://t.co/xaXi93NrGv— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) March 5, 2023
Polar Bear is the Most Consistent Home Run Hitter Since 2019
When you talk about consistency, Pete Alonso is your guy. The Polar Bear has 146 total home runs since 2019, the most by any MLB player during that span. During his rookie year, he set the record for most home runs in a season by a first-year player with 53.
He was also the first Mets player to hit at least 50 home runs in a single season, setting the Mets’ home run record in the process. Alonso registered 40 home runs last season, tied with Mike Trout for third behind Judge.
Guerrero only had 32 home runs last year, but was the MLB leader in homers during the 2021 season with 48 dingers.
The second-generation baseball superstar is the youngest player from the Toronto Blue Jays to hit 100 home runs and was the 7th youngest player in MLB history to have 100 home runs and 100 doubles. He has the 6th best odds to win the AL MVP award at +1000 odds.
Trout is next in the home run odds board at +1000 odds. The 31-year-old center fielder from the Los Angeles Angels hit 40 home runs last season. During a five-game series against the Seattle Mariners last June, Trout became the first player in MLB history to hit four game-winning home runs during a single series and the fifth Angels player to hit five homers in one series. Trout is also second behind teammate Shohei Ohtani on the AL MVP odds board.
Also listed at +1000 odds is Houston Astros’ designated hitter Yordan Alvarez. ‘Air Yordan’ is known as one of the best clutch hitters in baseball. Last season, Alvarez hit the first-ever walk-off home run in the postseason by a team down multiple runs.
During the 2022 World Series, Alvarez also hit the go-ahead home run to win his first-ever world title. He finished 6th last season with 36 home runs.
Last year’s runner-up, and NL home run leader, Kyle Schwarber is next on the list at +1200. Also priced at +1200 is 2021 AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. The Angels’ dual-threat star was tied for 11th on the list last season with 34 home runs and had a career-best 46 dingers in 2021.
Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley is currently priced at +1400 after finishing 5th last year with 38 home runs. Meanwhile, Kyle Olson and Kyle Tucker are both listed at +2000 odds.
