- The Arizona Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll has separated himself from the rest of the rookies in the National League.
- Carroll has an implied probability of 96.2 percent of winning the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year award.
- The 22-year-old rookie phenom is the first rookie in MLB history to record 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases before the MLB All-Star break.
The Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll appears to be in a one-man race for the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year over the next two months. Barring an unforeseen event, Carroll should have the award in his back pocket. Currently, Carroll has -2500 odds to win the NL Rookie of the Year at Bovada. Last week, he was -1500 to win the prestigious award.
-2500 gives Carroll a better than 95 percent chance of winning the annual award that goes to the best rookie in the National League. That does not constitute a lock. Massive favorites lose every day, but something would have to go terribly wrong for Carroll to give this up.
Carroll was the preseason betting favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year. He was +350 to win the award over the Los Angeles Dodgers’ James Outman, who had +400 odds before the first pitch in March. Outman has fallen well behind in the ROY race following a strong start to open the season.
Corbin Carroll for the lead! 👏
(via @Dbacks)pic.twitter.com/sAyESUmuBG
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) July 26, 2023
As of August 3, Outman’s NL Rookie of the Year odds are +10000. The Cincinnati Reds’ Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain are the only players with an outside chance of winning the NL ROY, according to odds at Bovada. De La Cruz is +1600, while his teammate McLain has +1800 odds to win the award.
21-year-old Mets’ catcher Francisco Alvarez has the fourth-best odds to win at +4000. Alvarez and players with worse odds could be taken off the board now. There is little to no chance they have a chance in this contest.
Record-Breaking Rookie Season
The 22-year-old native of Seattle, Washington, is off to an unprecedented start to his Major League Baseball career. There isn’t another player in baseball to notch a minimum of at least 15 home runs and 25 stolen bases before the All-Star break.
Carroll is one-of-one to pull off the impressive feat. However, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels still has one on Carroll. Trout needed 128 games to reach 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases in his career. Conversely, Carroll needed six more games with 134 matchups.
Corbin Carroll reached 25 HR and 35 SB in his first 134 career games, the 2nd-fewest needed by any player to debut since 1900.
Mike Trout needed 128 games. pic.twitter.com/Mf7zjbLPhf
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 1, 2023
Being compared to Trout is quite the achievement for Carroll. It remains to be seen if Carroll will have a career like Trout, but he is certainly on the right path. In 2011, Trout hit .220 with five home runs and 16 RBIs in 40 games. In his first full season in 2012, he hit .326 with 30 home runs and 83 RBIs in 139 games.
Carroll has two more months of regular season games to hit nine home runs and 24 RBIs to match Trout’s 2012 campaign. As of August 3, the Diamondbacks’ rookie is hitting .275 with a .353 OBP and 33 swiped bases. He tied with the Toronto Blue Jays’ Bo Bichette with the 15th-best WAR in the majors at 4.2.
Can Carroll Win The 2023 National League MVP?
While Carroll has been having a fantastic rookie campaign, he is not considered a contender to win the 2023 NL MVP award. According to Bovada, Carroll is tied with San Diego’s Juan Soto and Miami’s Luis Arraez for the fourth-best odds at +8500.
The Atlanta Braves’ Ronald Acuna Jr. is well ahead of the rest at -1000 odds. He doesn’t have much competition, as Freddie Freeman of the Dodgers has the next-best of winning the NL MVP odds at +750. So, it is highly improbable that Carroll can win the MVP as a rookie.
If Carroll does somehow find the necessary votes, he would join the Red Sox’s Fred Lynn and the Seattle Mariners’ Ichiro Suzuki as the only players to win the 2023 NL MVP. In other words, it has been over 20 years since someone has achieved the improbable accomplishment as a rookie.
Nevertheless, having the fourth-best odds to win the MVP award at 22 years old is incredibly impressive. Expect to see Carroll more involved in the NL MVP race in multiple seasons in the future.
Diamondbacks In Tight Race For NL Wild Card
Carroll has helped put the Diamondbacks in a position to reach the MLB postseason for the first time since 2017. The Diamondbacks have made the postseason just one time in their previous 11 seasons. However, this could be the year that the Diamondbacks make it twice in 12 years.
With a record of 57-52, the Diamondbacks are a game behind the 58-51 Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers. The San Francisco Giants have the No. 1 Wild Card with a record of 60-49. This is a crowded race that should come down to the final days of the regular season.
Currently, the 61-45 LA Dodgers have a 2.5-game advantage over the Giants in the NL West. Can the Diamondbacks make a run at the NL West crown? With a 5.5-game deficit behind the Dodgers, it’s not impossible but isn’t likely.
Down the line and for the lead ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/4B8ltvk9mg
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) August 3, 2023
The Diamondbacks are in the midst of a 3-7 run in their last ten games. They are coming off back-to-back losses to the Giants, and three losses in their previous four outings. When Carroll isn’t producing, the Diamondbacks tend to sink.
On July 23, Carroll was hitting .284 this season. However, his batting average has dropped to .275 since then. As a team, the Diamondbacks haven’t been in their best form since that point. The Diamondbacks’ playoff chances will ride or die on the bat and legs of the 2023 NL ROY favorite.
