- The New York Mets’ World Series Odds bounced back after signing Justin Verlander on Monday.
- New York’s title odds had dropped from +1100 to +1700 after losing Jacob deGrom in free agency last week.
- The Mets improved to +900 on Tuesday morning, the 4th best odds to win next season’s Fall Classic.
The New York Mets went from losing their ace to acquiring another one in a span of days.
New York delivered its first 100-win season since 1988 this past campaign and opened at +1100 odds to win the 2023 World Series. Those odds, however, faltered to +1700 after watching Jacob deGrom get poached by the Texas Rangers last week. But just days after dropping in the World Series betting boards, the Mets bounced back by signing Justin Verlander on Monday.
Justin Verlander and the Mets have agreed on a two-year, $86M deal with a vesting option for a third year, per @JonHeyman pic.twitter.com/cTLSfZ8h3h
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 5, 2022,
Justin Verlander Headed to New York
Verlander and the Mets have agreed on a two-year $86 million deal with a vesting option worth $35 million for 2025. The soon-to-be 40-year-old triumphantly returned from Tommy John surgery to help the Houston Astros win their second World Series Championship last October. He had the lowest ERA in the majors and won his third Cy Young Award last season, becoming the first player to win the award after sitting out the previous campaign with an injury.
He posted an 18-4 record with an ERA of 1.75 and 185 strikeouts in a total of 28 starts during the 2022 season. Verlander led the majors in both ERA and WHIP while also pacing the American League in total wins. His ERA was the best for a pitcher who made at least 25 starts during his age-39 season since earned runs became an official stat in 1913.
Verlander also posted the lowest ERA by a pitcher of any age since Pedro Martinez’s 1.74 ERA in 2000. The 9-time All-Star completed at least 6 innings in 22 out of the 28 games he started and pitched in a total of 175 innings last season. Verlander is also just the second non-rookie ever to pitch a minimum of 15 starts with a sub-2.00 ERA despite not pitching in the majors the previous season.
Aside from winning the Cy Young Award, Verlander was also named to his 9th All-Star selection. He won Game 5 of the 2022 World Series in Philadelphia, his first-ever win in the Fall Classic, and then opted out of his $25 million player option last month.
Swapping Jacob DeGrom for Justin Verlander Improved Mets’ Odds
The Verlander signing comes just days after the Mets watched ace Jacob DeGrom leave for the Texas Rangers. DeGrom, arguably the best pitcher of his generation, agreed to a five-year $185 million free agent deal with the Texas Rangers last Friday. The two-time Cy Young winner previously opted out of the final two years of his contract after spending all of his 9 MLB seasons with the Mets.
No doubt, deGrom is arguably the best starter in the game when healthy. At his peak from 2018 to the first half of the 2021 season, deGrom posted a 1.94 ERA across 91 starts, the best pitching performance over years that MLB has seen since Pedro Martinez. DeGrom finished the 2022 season healthy but it remains to be seen if he can stay that way.
He threw just 64 ⅓ innings during the 2022 campaign and missed the first four months of the season with a stress reaction in his shoulder. During the past three seasons, DeGrom has pitched in only 224 ⅓ innings. While deGrom finished the 2022 season healthy, he did not look himself in his final five starts, including the postseason as he posted a 5.53 ERA and allowed 7 home runs in 27 innings.
Despite the risk that deGrom brings, the Texas Rangers saw their World Series odds climb from +4000 before the signing to +3000 after adding deGrom, and now +2500 in the latest BetOnline odds board. The Mets meanwhile, saw their World Series odds fade to +1700 after losing DeGrom but have moved up to 4th in the latest odds boards with Verlander on board. According to BetOnline, the Mets are now at +900 with only the Dodgers at +575, Houston Astros at +650, and Atlanta Braves at +850 having better odds than them.
