It is official. The 45th President of the United States has been indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. For the first time in U.S. history, a former President has been criminally prosecuted1. There have been Presidents and high-ranking officials with past legal woes, but none were ever indicted.
Trump has been charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The charges stem from hush money payments to two women before the 2016 presidential election2.
Stormy Daniels (Stephanie Clifford) is at the center of the media storm and charges in Manhattan. Daniels is an adult film actress and has spent time as an exotic dancer. Along with Daniels, Playboy model Karen McDougal reportedly received hush money payments from Trump, as well.
The legal woes of Mr. Trump are quite possibly the greatest reality show in the history of television or streaming platforms. The twists and turns of Donald Trump’s legal case have captured the nation and will keep millions of Americans on the edge of their seats.
Additionally, Trump’s legal issues and desire to run for President in 2024 have turned the political landscape upside down in America. This criminal drama has also turned into a highly popular betting opportunity.
You can bet on Trump’s current legal issues, 2024 Presidential odds, and the possibility of him going to jail, at the best political betting sites.
Donald Trump Odds
There are several Donald Trump prop bets available to wager on. We’ll examine the most recent political prop bets that focus on Trump’s indictment and potential for serving jail time.
How Many Indictments Will Trump Face?
The following Donald Trump prop bet is courtesy of BetOnline:
Total States/Feds to Indict Before Next Election:
| Over/Under | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | -140 |
| Under 2.5 | +100 |
In addition to the criminal charges in Manhattan, there are additional ongoing investigations against the former President. He may end up being charged with more crimes, which would increase the Trump indictment odds.
If you like Trump to be indicted in three states, and by the Feds, before the 2024 Presidential Election, you can bet on the Over 2.5 at -140 odds.
New York is one state, so Trump will have to be indicted by two more states for the Over to win. He is currently under investigation for the handling of classified documents, election interference in Georgia, and the January 6 insurrection on the Capitol.
A special counsel appointed by the Justice Department is investigating Trump’s handling of classified documents. The government reportedly tried for over 1.5 years to retrieve documents that were in his possession3.
In August 2022, the FBI raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Palm Beach, Florida. They discovered more than 100 classified documents.
The warrant included three criminal laws to justify the search:
- unauthorized retention of national security secrets (Espionage Act)
- obstruction
- concealing or destroying government documents4.
In Georgia, Trump and his associates are being investigated for violating several statutes in connection with interference in the 2020 Presidential Election.
Georgia’s district attorney’s office is spearheaded by Democrat Fani T. Willis, who will ultimately be responsible for bringing charges before a grand jury5.
We just announced a 34-count felony indictment of former President Donald J. Trump. Learn more: https://t.co/PTTh2zlsvv pic.twitter.com/IUE6JjdrS2
— Alvin Bragg (@ManhattanDA) April 4, 2023
Lastly, Trump’s involvement in the January 6 insurrection on the Capitol is under investigation. A House Committee has been responsible for investigating the role that Trump played in the incident6.
Trump’s legal team is attempting to get Willis tossed from the investigation. However, this is highly unlikely to happen. Trump’s team is aware that Willis is not on his side.
With the odds of a Trump indictment in Georgia likely, he needs one more indictment for this prop bet to go Over at online betting sites. An indictment for the illegal handling of classified documents is probable.
The January 6 insurrection indictment is questionable, but it is not required to go Over 2.5 indictments on this bet. Take the Over as the New York indictment has opened the flood gates.
Is Donald Trump Going To Jail?
Other than wondering when the cost of living will come back down, the biggest question on the minds of most Americans is whether or not Donald Trump will go to jail. BetOnline has a prop bet asking if he will serve time before 2025.
To Serve Jail Time Before 2025:
| Jail Time | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -2500 |
| Yes | +800 |
There is a difference between being indicted and going to jail. Trump might be indicted, but he can very well escape jail time.
On the other hand, Trump is also facing a maximum sentence of over 136 years in prison if he is convicted7. There is a chance, albeit a small one, that he can still receive a prison sentence.
If he is not guilty in Manhattan, Trump could be found guilty in one of the other investigations and receive jail time. The timeline for all of this happening is very tight.
Keep in mind, this prop bet is for Trump serving jail time before 2025. He is not due back in court until December 4, 2023, which is two months before the start of the Republican primaries8.
This is not going to be a short process. After his appearance in December, there will be another break before anything else occurs. A trial, which would likely include a mountain of evidence being presented, could potentially drag on for months or years.
The Secret Service protection Trump receives for being a former President could also complicate a prison sentence. The courts will have to take this into consideration as well.
If Trump does happen to receive jail time, his sentence will not likely begin before 2025. Take the no option for this prop bet.
Will Trump Cut A Plea Deal?
The following Donald Trump odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
To Cut a Plea Deal With State/Federal Prosecutors:
| Plea Deal | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -500 |
| Yes | +300 |
Does anyone think that Trump will admit that he’s guilty of committing these crimes?
If Trump takes a plea for a reduced sentence, there will be some admission of guilt. He would try to spin it, but it would not look good on his reputation.
There are two variables working against Trump taking a plea.
First, and maybe the most obvious, Trump has an ego that will not allow him to admit that he broke the law. He has claimed his innocence for months now and is unlikely to turn around and take a plea. If Trump has to, he will likely go down fighting to the final day.
Donald Trump’s ‘knees don’t buckle’ and he will not take a plea deal in face of criminal charges, says lawyer https://t.co/zUdXj8N35x
— Sky News (@SkyNews) March 31, 2023
Second, Trump is a presidential candidate in the 2024 election. A plea deal involving a reduced sentence in exchange for not running in 2024 does not seem like a Trump thing to do.
We do not foresee him taking a plea deal for falsifying business records in Manhattan. In fact, we don’t see the former President taking a plea deal in any legal matter.
Trump does not look like a guy that is ready to admit guilt in any capacity. There will be a fall guy before Trump takes the fall.
Odds of Trump Winning 2024 Presidency and Going To Prison
Bovada has taken things to another level with this Trump prop bet. Can you imagine Donald Trump winning the Presidency in 2024 and having to go to prison?
Donald Trump To Win The 2024 US Presidential Election and Serve Part of His Term From Prison:
| Win Election and Serve Prison Time | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +500 |
| No | N/A |
Three things will have to happen for this bet to win at Bovada. He will have to win the GOP Presidential nomination, the 2024 presidential election, and then also serve time in prison.
The current odds of Trump winning the 2024 Presidential Election are +275 at Bovada. That makes him the second favorite behind Joe Biden. Currently, Biden has +190 odds to be reelected in 2024.
As a -140 favorite to win the Republican nomination, the odds are in his favor of completing this step. While Trump winning the presidential election is much better than a lot of people want to admit, it should be tough.
Is Donald Trump going to jail?
That is another tough one. Our prediction for Trump, if he is found guilty, is heavy fines and potentially home confinement.
Democrats are screaming for Trump to be put in jail and have the key thrown away. He may very well deserve prison time. However, The Former Presidents Protection Act of 2012 complicates this process.
The law guarantees that Trump will receive Secret Service protection for the rest of his life9. Consequently, he would require Secret Service even during his time in prison as an inmate.
We need higher odds than +500 to bet on the Yes prop at Bovada.
Sources
Donald Trump faces 34 criminal charges in historic indictment | Al Jazeera. Retrieved From “https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/4/former-us-president-trump-faces-34-charges-in-historic-first“
Read the indictment against Donald Trump, details of payments to porn star, Playboy model | CNBC. Retrieved From “https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/donald-trump-unsealed-indictment-ny-arraignment.html”
Timeline: The Fight to Get Trump to Return Presidential Material | The New York Times. Retrieved From “https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/us/politics/trump-documents-search-timeline.html”
Donald Trump Faces Several Investigations. Here’s Where They Stand. | The New York Times. Retrieved From “https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/us/politics/trump-documents-search-timeline.html”
Donald Trump Faces Several Investigations. Here’s Where They Stand. | The New York Times. Retrieved From “https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/us/politics/trump-documents-search-timeline.html”
Donald Trump Faces Several Investigations. Here’s Where They Stand. | The New York Times. Retrieved From “https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/26/us/politics/trump-documents-search-timeline.html”
Trump faces maximum sentence of 136 years in prison for 34-count indictment | Fox News. Retrieved From “https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-faces-maximum-sentence-136-years-prison-34-count-indictment”
Trump’s next court date pushes up against 2024 primaries | The Hill. Retrieved From “https://thehill.com/homenews/3934216-trump-december-court-date-2024-primaries/”
Timeline of Our History | United States Secret Service. Retrieved From “https://www.secretservice.gov/about/history/timeline”
