Betting on Soccer is like watching paint dry. And I absolutely love Soccer. I will rise at 4:44 am to watch my beloved Chelsea FC play in the EPL. But let’s be perfectly honest here brother. Without sports gambling, Soccer might be too boring to deal with full-time. Paint dries, but so what?
Imagine paying a couple hundred dollars to go watch two teams not score. Yes, Americans have trouble relating to Soccer. We like Cheeseburgers with 7 layers and cheese and bacon and all that jazz. Soccer and Soccer betting often seems like a lukewarm glass of milk.
At least betting on Soccer makes it more tolerable?
I have bet on Soccer since falling in love with Chelsea and legend Didier Drogba a long time ago and have bet on the beautiful game here in now chillier and more populated Las Vegas as well as in online sportsbooks over that two-decade span.
Betting on Soccer is not easy. Yes, it makes the matches more exciting and we can actually win money. Sometimes. But the real truth here that we all know is that the bookies and the sportsbooks usually end up being the real winners.
We may win here or there, but they seem to always win in the end. So how do we do better against “they”? Isn’t that always the great existential rhetorical question in all of our busy lives?
Here we will discuss Soccer betting mistakes, how a Soccer betting mistake can lead to a long-term problem in your Straight bets, Parlays, and Live Wagering, and what the 5 biggest soccer betting Mistakes might actually be. And I promise you that it won’t surprise you.
When using Online Soccer Betting Sites, it can sadly become too easy to go to your Smartphone or PC and just keep betting the way you always have. But wise sports bettors do post-mortems on their action, be it in the daily games on the betting board of the more frequent Futures and Props.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at some of the most common macro (larger scale) Soccer betting mistakes seen in my time wagering on this great Sport.
Describe this player in one word _____ pic.twitter.com/GMJlaNX4zM
— FIFA World Cup (@FIFAWorldCup) November 1, 2022
The 5 Most Common Macro Soccer Betting Mistakes
1. Not Researching the Starting XI, Goalkeeper Before You Bet
One of the biggest Soccer betting mistakes, and one that is easily corrected, is Soccer bettors not looking into who will actually be on the pitch and in goal for the matches on which they want to bet on. This obviously will matter in both the Side and Totals (Over/Under) marketplaces.
And it is fairly easy to determine who the starting Goalkeepers (GK) may be. With Social Media and Logic and Club Trends, it is often possible to predict maybe 9 or 10 of the starting 11.
Here is an example of a Starting XI being released for Chelsea’s UEFA Champions League Group Stage meeting with Dinamo Zagreb on Wednesday, November 2 easily found on Twitter:
Team news is in! ✌️@ParimatchGlobal | #UCL pic.twitter.com/8I0c40PQAR
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) November 2, 2022
Some clubs play the same starting Goalkeeper all of the time while others clubs will rotate keepers. And some in the major European leagues actually sometimes employ a different starting Goalkeeper for its league and tournament play.
In English Premier League Matches, Chelsea has used both Arrizabalaga (6 starts) and Édouard Mendy (6 starts) in goal. Knowing that the Blues always use Kepa in the UEFA Champions League but rotate starters in the EPL is basic information a serious soccer bettor should be armed with.
And as you can see from the Tweet, the Blues bucked the trend and started Mendy instead of Kepa. It may sound strange, but Twitter is easily one of the best handicapping tools around.
Also, knowing Injuries and Situations is massive. Information on Injuries and Injury updates and match availability is all easy to find in The Digital Age. Compiling your own list of sources for odds, injuries, news, Starting XI’s, and other pertinent information is paramount to winning.
2. Wagering Too Much on a Side Because of the Moneyline Odds
Another common soccer betting mistake is letting the odds affect how much you are betting on a given match. Don’t let the numbers throw you off. If your goal is to try to win $20 on the game, simply work backwards from that reality.
Just because a club is priced at -225 to win $100 doesn’t mean you need to bet $225 to win $100. Figure out first how much you might be satisfied with winning. And then weigh that specific amount against an amount you would hate to lose.
To win $20 on Chelsea at -315 odds, a bettor would have to wager $63. So, a Win would mean making $20 and keeping the initial $63 stake in your account. A Loss would mean -$63 from your account. Scale and the amount you decide to bet is always the second biggest decision.
The 2022 World Cup hosted by Qatar is expected to be watched by five billion people around the world 😳
The TV audience for the 2018 World Cup in Russia was a record-breaking 3.5 billion people. pic.twitter.com/8L5wsjabG0
— MyBookie – Bet With The Best (@MyBookie) November 2, 2022
The first is always whether or not you bet on an event or a Futures market. There are no Yellow Lights in Sports Gambling. It’s always Green Light (BET) or Red Light (DON’T BET). And that applies to every single market and to every single Sport.
If losing $315 sounds like too much, simply change the betting amount. There are no sure things in betting and Soccer matches can get as weird or weirder than other sports we bet on at the sportsbooks.
And this works both ways. A bettor looking at a 3-way in the UEFA Champions League match between Chelsea and Dinamo Zagreb may see great value in the 9/1 (+900) odds.
After all, Dinamo Zagreb already defeated the Blues in their first Group E meeting in Croatia. And Chelsea really doesn’t have to win, sitting on top of the group and already advancing, right?
So, the visions we have in our heads of (always) winning these wagers needs to evolve and be replaced with a more cautious and sensible approach to make it easier on both our ever-changing moods and bankrolls as Sports gamblers. Being disciplined is a discipline in itself.
3. Not Betting on Unders Enough
Another Soccer betting mistake is not betting on Unders more. There is always the perception of many goals in games and odds usually change a little—like in the NFL—with more money being bet on Overs than Unders. This may provide value betting on Unders late right before kickoff.
We all assume there will be scoring in sporting events, but unless it’s basketball, Bubba, there are no guarantees. Not even in MLB or the NHL where Totals can be as low as 4½ (very rare) and 5 (NHL) or 6 (MLB). Sometimes nobody scores and it seems like no one will ever score.
And then someone finally scores.
But nobody scored. The match ended 0-0. Looking at realities like if you bet the Under at 3, you would still have a shot at a Push should it ended up with 3 total goals, then you created an edge. A 3 wouldn’t lose your stake bet amount should it push.
With so few Shots, and more importantly quality Shots on Target in soccer, it’s often wiser to lean with the Unders than the Overs in the Totals market and make them beat you by having to score. All games in all Sports start off 0-0 and are Unders until proven wrong.
But you must have the right situation and always be aware of the weather forecast for those games as Temperature, Wind, and Precipitation all have an effect on Soccer matches and make trying to score goals even more difficult many times. Information really matters in betting.
⏰ RESULTS ⏰
🔹 Porto win Group B, Club Brugge runners-up
🔹 Leverkusen into @EuropaLeague knockout round play-offs#UCL— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 1, 2022
4. The Trend is Quite Often Your Friend When Betting
Not Paying attention to current and ever-changing betting Trends is a Soccer betting mistake of the lazy-minded. Not only will knowing Trends, Streaks and Tendencies help you decide who to bet on, it will also help you know who not to bet on and what games to lay off of.
Some things just seem to happen all the time.
Old Trafford used to be a fortress for Manchester United. But now the Etihad Stadium is the place nobody in Europe ever likes to go to. And it is a Soccer betting mistake not knowing who is dominant at Home, or who is on a Winning, Losing, or even a Scoreless streak.
Heading into its UEFA Champions League Group Stage match on Wednesday, November 2 against Sevilla, the Citizens had won their last 13 matches in all competitions at the Etihad Stadium.
Most elite clubs simply don’t lose at Home as we see in the NHL, NFL, and the major European Soccer leagues. Manchester City, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich all know how important establishing a culture of dominance on Home soil is to long-term success.
Man City have won their last 13 home games in all competitions…#UCL pic.twitter.com/A7bvnbfXGm
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 2, 2022
5. Not Betting on Select Draws More Often
One day several years ago, I asked Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Vice President Jay Kornegay what percentage of people actually bet on” Draws” in Soccer. Jay laughed at me before answering. And the laugh from the sin City icon was all I needed to hear to know what I already suspected.
The 3-way market always has the Draw odds for us to read, but most Soccer bettors head into their handicapping with a false perception and usually a delusion that the game can’t and won’t end in a Draw. So many matches do end in Draws in this Sport. And a huge betting mistake in Soccer in neglecting the Draw.
We all dismiss the possibility of Draws way too easily in soccer betting. And the statistics bear that reality out. From 2015 to 2020 in the Championship (27.6% Draws), EFL Cup, FA Cup and the English Premier League (23.8%), a healthy 25.5% of the matches ended 90 minutes in a Draw.
Bet the Draw more often. But try to look for a logical spot when handicapping Soccer. And always shop for the best odds in the 3-way market as Soccer odds (and Draw numbers) can differ greatly from sportsbook to sportsbook. Best of luck to you all.
