How to Master Over/Under Soccer Bets

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By Chad Romero in Soccer —
9 Min. Read

Over Under Soccer Betting Line Example And Soccer Background

When looking at Totals (Over/Under) bets in Soccer, many gamblers shy away from this market for a number of reasons. But trying to become a master at these types of wagers isn’t as hard as it seems.

Many are thrown off by extremely low Totals hung by oddsmakers at Soccer betting sites, but Soccer Totals and betting Soccer Totals are just like any other market in Sports Betting. The more you get involved, the more you ultimately learn and get better.

Betting on Soccer Over/Unders is sort of like hunting, where patience is truly a virtue. And there are always a number of Pushes (no bet due to tie) betting Soccer totals.

But in Soccer, we see a much fewer number of actual Totals for games in all of the major leagues with the main numbers we usually see being 2, 2½, 3, and 3½. Betting on Soccer Over/Unders is an art, but it takes some time to become proficient at that art.

Let’s first show a working example of an Over/Under from the upcoming 2022 FIFA World Cup which will kick off on Sunday, November 20 in Qatar. It will mark the first time that the World Cup will be held in the Arab world.

In this second match of the tournament on Monday, November 21, England will face Iran in the Group B opener from Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan (16:00). As you can see, oddsmakers at BetOnline have set the Total at 2½ goals, so there will be no Pushes.

ClubSpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
Iran+1½ (-123)Over 2½ (+106)+1200
England-1½ (+103)Under 2½ (-126)-330

This Over/Under number provides Soccer bettors a chance to wager Under the 2½ Total if they think there will be 2 goals or less. Or, they can back the Over 2½ if they think the match will have 3 goals or more in this 2022 FIFA World Cup example.

The two juice amounts (vigorish) that you see attached to the Over (+106) and Under (-126) in this instance reflect the moneyline amount bettors give (-) or get (+) when making their bet(s).

For example, if a bettor thinks that this England-Iran match will be low-scoring with either 0, 1, or 2 goals, he or she can bet $126 (-126) on the Under to try to win $100. A gambler taking the Over here and looking for 3 goals or more could bet $100 and get $106 (+106) in winnings. It’s simple.

Mastering Over/Under Bets

Betting Soccer Totals can be like watching paint dry, and many matches have little or no scoring, but always remember there is Live, In-game wagering in Soccer. If you feel you see something watching and feel you have an edge, then jump on in and make a Live bet.

One nice thing about independently betting Totals in all sports is that you aren’t tied to a Side, only the game or match pace and the actual scoring. Time is the big thing Totals worry about constantly unless betting Baseball, then Time becomes irrelevant.

When betting or handicapping Soccer Totals, remember that scoring isn’t as frequent as you think and that not all Goals shown in the Final Score are necessarily counted and reflected in your wagers.

Why?
Soccer bets are usually graded after 90 minutes of play and added Injury time. Any matches that go to Overtime and/or Penalty Kicks and end 2-1 but were 1-1 before OT or PKs is graded as a 1-1 score and 2 (Total) goals, not the 3 that would be in a 2-1 Final. The vast majority of sportsbooks don’t count OT goals in Soccer. Extra Inning Runs in Baseball and OT points in the NFL, NBA, WNBA, and NCAAB all count in the Totals in most sportsbooks.

There are a number of things that you should look at when handicapping and betting Soccer Over/Unders. Here are some important things to be aware of if betting Totals in Soccer.

1. Research Some Trends Between Clubs, Last 5 Games

One wise thing to do if betting serious money on Soccer is to look up the series history between the two clubs. One of the best sources for this is worldfootball.net. For example, let’s look at the Leeds-Liverpool EPL match coming up this Saturday, October 29.

Oddsmakers at BetOnline have the Total at 3½u -113 for the EPL match with Liverpool big -290 favorites in the 3-way market with Leeds United at +750 and the Draw priced at +475 for this game at Liverpool.

Looking at the last 5 in the series, we see the total number of goals scored at, for an average of 4.4 gpg and a seemingly distinct small sample size Over trend. But in reality, only 3 of the 5 went over 4 goals so breaking it down by Site would be the next step.

The Site is Anfield in Liverpool, England, and the last 5 Liverpool-Leeds United scores at Home for the Reds were (Liverpool winning) 6-0, 4-3, 4-1, 3-1, 3-1, and 1-1. That’s an average of 6.4 gpg. With the Total set at 3½, the Series Trends points to the Over with a minimum of 4 goals in the last 5 meetings. But we need to look at the Form of both clubs in the last 5 for some recency.

In its last 5 heading into a Wednesday UEFA Champions league match vs Ajax, Liverpool has been involved in three straight 1-0 games in EPL play, an 8-goal outburst in UEFA CL (LIV 7 RAN 1), and a 5-goal match with Arsenal beating Liverpool, 3-2.

Leeds United’s last 5 matches have seen 5, 2, 1, 3, and 0 goals scored with Leeds losing 4 straight. And they have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, so you can see why the Total is at 3½.

The Trends here support Mo Salah and Liverpool winning by 2 or more goals with Leeds United likely not scoring and LFC winning 2-0, 3-0, or 4-0. Two of those Final Scores resulting in Unders.

2. Know the Starting Goalkeepers, Starting XI

Knowing who is injured and out, looking at the Starting XI on Social Media (Twitter, Instagram), and exactly who is the Starting Goalkeeper is massive in Soccer.  There are huge differences between the No. 1 and No. 2 GKs in most clubs.

Managers need to rest No. 1’s for bigger matches or if they get worn down or are recovering from an Injury. And researching and finding out who will start before the game and adjusting your thinking in this matter is huge, just as it is in the NHL.

For example, in that Liverpool (4-4-3) vs. Leeds (2-3-6) match, the Reds No. 1 GK is Allison, and he has started all 11 EPL fixtures. And IIlan Meslier has started all 11 EPL matches for Leeds United, so a handicapper would assume the 6-6 French keeper will be in goal for the visitors in this contest.

3. Look up Weather at Stadium

Weather is easy to find, but make sure when you Google or use your preferred source, you use the precise stadium location and not just the city. Weather in North London can be a bit different than it is in West London.

To find the Weather for the Liverpool-Leeds match, simply type into Google “Weather, Anfield, Liverpool, Saturday” and it will show you the Forecast there from weather.com: In this instance, you can see that there is rain in the forecast, so that combined with the Reds struggling and needing the win and having played three straight 1-0 matches means the Under makes the most sense. Especially if you think Leeds United won’t score.

Knowing the playing Surface is also important when handicapping Soccer Totals, as the ball tends to move faster and skip more on synthetic surfaces as compared to natural Grass, When Grass gets wet and bogged down, the ball travels slower and goals are harder to come by.

4. Be Aware of the Match Situation

Some matches matter to some teams more than others. A great example of this comes in UEFA Champions League Group play when a team has already clinched a spot in the Knockout Stage. Why do they care about going 100% and risking potential injuries?

In spots like these or other quick turnarounds, managers will rest key players and use No. 2 Goalkeepers in order to have his freshest Starting XI for the bigger game. This phenomenon is seen less in Regular Season league play in European Soccer, but it does happen.

Not all matches are created equal. It’s only natural that Liverpool will be getting up more for a stronger side like Manchester City, Chelsea, or Arsenal as opposed to Leeds United, Brighton & Hove Albion, or 20th-place Nottingham Forest.

5. Shop For the Best Betting Number

Betting Soccer Totals may seem dry compared to Sides, but there are things you can do to get small edges here and there. Live betting (Totals) is one, and having multiple out and shopping for the best betting number when betting Soccer Over/Unders is a must.

Every once in a while, you might find a discrepancy with one sportsbook having a 2 for a game and another having a 2½. If you like the Under, obviously bet where the 2½ is posted while if you like the Over, bet your money at the online sportsbook with the 2, also knowing a Push is possible.

One nice thing about Soccer Totals—and it usually only happens when a Total is 3—is potential Pushes on matches that may end 3-0 or 2-1. Not losing is better than losing and when betting a Soccer Total that is set at 3, you know what you are getting into.

Conclusion: Weigh All Factors Before Totals Betting

Soccer Over/Unders seem like a neglected betting market, but it is basically the same feel, handicap and betting approach as it is in the MLB, NHL, and MMA Totals. In that we are dealing with potentially low-scoring results.

And no other sport has that weird 0-0 Final Scoreline like Soccer. Under bettors think they should get paid twice on 0-0 scores in Soccer. With Soccer Totals so predictable, much handicapping for fixtures can be done ahead of time because you theoretically already know the starting GKs and what the Over/Under will be. A Liverpool-Leeds United fixture a year from now at Anfield would also probably be 3½.

Having a predicted Final Score before the odds come out is a great way to approach betting Soccer Totals. Knowing Allison and Liverpool need the Win after losing at Nottingham Forest, the Weather will be rainy and the Reds have had trouble scoring means a lean here to the Under.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Chad Romero profile picture
Chad Romero

Content covered on TSG: reviews

Chad has proficient knowledge on several different sports. But he's particularly passionate about "The Beautiful Game." What's considered football to some, and soccer to others, is one of Chad's favorite subjects to cover. Check out his soccer betting tips, recommended bets, predictions, and picks. In his spare time, Chad enjoys playing pool, camping, and cooking.

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