Fantasy Hockey – Previewing the Atlantic Division

As we enjoy the rest of the summer and get our final beach days under your belt, let’s indulge in what I think is an interesting fantasy hockey exercise.

We have rankings, sleepers, busts, rookies to draft and all that nonsense. But let’s take a look at fantasy hockey from a different perspective: the teams.

The team itself has a lot to do with an individual player’s fantasy upside. Getting a better picture of the storylines and topics through a fantasy lens for each team can make it easier on deciding what players to take in your draft and what players to avoid.

Let’s go ahead and put our fantasy goggles on and take a look at fantasy-relevant themes and topics for each club within the Atlantic Division.

Boston Bruins

Will The Top Line Stick?

The Bruins had arguably the best line in all of hockey last season as the trio of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak all reached the 30-goal plateau, the only line combination in the NHL to do so.

With trade deadline acquisition, and number two right winger, Rick Nash departing via free agency, it stands to wonder whether Pastrnak will slide down onto the second line to spread the wealth a little bit, leaving a spot open for one of Danton Heinen, Anders Bjork or even Ryan Donato to the right of Bergeron.

Such an occurrence doesn’t exactly change Pastrnak’s outlook much as he will be a dynamic scorer on a productive second line alongside David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk who enjoyed a very nice rookie year a year ago. In fact, it would likely boost the stocks of Krejci and DeBrusk as they would become one of the most potent second lines in the Eastern Conference.

What it would also do is skyrocket the value of whoever is fortunate enough to land a spot on that top unit. This is something to keep an eye on as the season approaches because you are likely going to want to snag whoever gets that spot, if there is even a spot up for grabs.

Can Krug lead the league?

In defenseman points, that is. Despite missing six games with injury and logging just 20:24 of ice time per game, Krug set a new career high with 59 points on the Bruins’ blueline. In other words, Krug’s ice time ranked 83rd among defensemen while his production ranked eighth.

Whether or not an increase in ice time would lead to more production isn’t really relevant to me here. What is relevant is the fact I think Krug has the upside to lead all defensemen in scoring this season. Yes, Victor Hedman, John Carlson, Erik Karlsson (wherever he plays), John Klingberg and Brent Burns and many others provide stiff competition, but as the quarterback of a star-studded power play, he’s got a shot.

There’s also the fact that Krug notched 31 points in 33 games after the All-Star break last season after notching 28 points in 43 games prior to the break. A near point-per-game clip is very tough to maintain for a defenseman through a full 82-game season, but if that type of production is any indication, Krug could be a darkhorse for top fantasy defenseman next season.

Buffalo Sabres

Hutton Time

After breaking out in his age-32 season last year with the Blues, Hutton signed in Buffalo as a free agent and will get his first clean crack at a number one job in the NHL.

Hutton played in only 32 games last season, but among goalies who played in a minimum of 30 games, his 2.09 GAA and a.931 Sv% were both the best marks in the NHL. Of course, Hutton was playing in front of a stout group of defenders in St. Louis, a luxury he won’t be afforded in Buffalo, but those numbers, especially the save percentage, are worth of number one duties in Buffalo.

Still, as a second goalie on your fantasy squad, Hutton could provide sneaky value on what certainly should be an improved Sabres club.

Eichel Gets His Man

After lacking an above-average left winger next to him for much of his NHL tenure, Eichel finally gets a scoring partner to his left in the form of the newly-acquired Jeff Skinner.

After scoring a career-high 37 goals in the 2016-17 season, Skinner fell to just 24 goals in a disappointing all-round season in Carolina last year. I think it’s fair to say that Skinner is in for a bounce back year alongside one of the Eastern Conference’s premier pivots in Eichel as he has lacked a star center to his side throughout his career.

The addition of Skinner could take Eichel’s game to new heights while Skinner is in for a big year as well. Keep an eye on this duo as they could form one of the top combos in the division.

Dahlin’s Impact

If you want to know who the top defenseman to own on the Sabres is, it’s the other Rasmus, Rasmus Ristolainen.

While Dahlin should, by all means, handle himself well in his rookie season, he will still play this season at just 18 years old, and this league is extremely tough on young defensemen.

Ristolainen, by contrast, has five years of NHL experience under his belt at this point, although he is just 23 years old himself. He has maxed out at 45 points in that time, albeit with some brutal plus/minus numbers as well.

Still, he’s racked up 41 or more points in three straight seasons, on some terrible Buffalo offenses, and has 53 power play points over the last two years.

Dahlin’s time will come, but for now, Ristolainen is the defenseman to own for the next year or two, and possibly more, even in dynasty leagues.

Detroit Red Wings

Mantha Mania?

Anthony Mantha scored 107 goals over his final two seasons of junior hockey, making him one of the top goal-scoring prospects outside of the NHL.

It took a couple of seasons of development in the minors for Mantha to learn the pro game, and after to more in the NHL, is it time for his breakout season?

After notching a healthy 17 goals and 36 points in 60 games as a rookie, Mantha took a quality step forward last year with 24 goals and 24 assists while skating in 80 games with the Wings.

To me, this is a guy who can approach 30 goals this season alongside a star center in Dylan Larkin who posted 47 assists and 63 points last season. Larkin and Mantha should be able to form a powerful duo on the Red Wings top line to lead a group of young and developing Red Wings forwards.

Mantha also possesses some increased value in banger leagues as he recorded 91 hits and 52 PIM last year, numbers I expect to increase given his gritty and power forward style of play.

Zadina Slips to Sixth

The Red Wings were going to get a good player with the sixth overall pick in June’s NHL Entry Draft, but you have to feel they were extra excited to land Czech scorer Filip Zadina, a player who can quite possibly help immediately.

Zadina notched 44 goals in 57 games with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads in his lone North American season to date, and although the Red Wings have some nice young forwards in place, you can never have too much scoring and I think Zadina steps into a prominent offensive role right out of the gate.

With Henrik Zetterberg set to miss the start of the year, and quite possibly the entire year, it’s hard to say who Zadina will play with, but my bet is veteran Frans Nielsen who should form a nice little combination with the youngster.

Regardless, Zadina is certainly worth a look right away as he figures to score some goals, and some power play goals, in his first season in the NHL.

Empty on the Back End

Among the six defenseman and two goaltenders the Red Wings will start with this season, there is only one player worthy of fantasy ownership, and that’s Mike Green.

As talented as Detroit is up front, the back end is largely uninspiring, both from a fantasy and real-life perspective.

• Nicklas Kronwall is 37 and with knees as bad as his are, he’s likely playing the final season of his NHL career.
• Jonathan Ericsson has never been much of a fantasy contributor.
• Neither has the semi-youthful Danny Dekeyser who has developed into a stay-at-home blueliner after coming out of college as a hot commodity.
• Trevor Daley will be 35 in October and had just 16 points in 77 games a year ago.

That leaves Green on the back end who will quarterback the top power play unit this season after notching a real solid 33 points in 66 contests last year before neck issues ended his season early.

Keep an eye on prospect Filip Hronek here, who could make an impact with the Wings this season, albeit at an undetermined time. The 20-year-old blueliner notched a real nice 39 points in 67 games with Grand Rapids of the AHL last season and is clearly a highly regarded offensive prospect, but from a fantasy perspective, we might have to wait for his production to come.

In goal, there is the veteran Jimmy Howard and the free agent signee Jonathan Bernier. Howard is on the final year of his contract, and the Red Wings are likely hoping he can play his way into being a valuable trade chip come deadline time. That said, there will still be a timeshare in the Wings’ crease, meaning neither goaltender will likely log enough starts to produce much fantasy value, especially on a rebuilding Red Wings club. This could very well be a situation where both of a team’s goaltenders reside on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.

Florida Panthers

Sneaky-Good Top Six

There is an argument to be made that the Panthers could boast the best top-six group in the division, and I would argue for it.

Aleksander Barkov is becoming one of the premier center icemen in the entire conference with 90-point potential within the next couple of years. He helped Evgenii Dadonov notch 28 goals and 65 points in his return to the Panthers last year while Nick Bjugstad enjoyed a big second half in which he notched 27 points in his final 35 games after being promoted to the top line to the right of Barkov.

The second line of Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau and Mike Hoffman is no slouch either. Trocheck is a point-per-game player with huge shot totals while Huberdeau is a first line winger on most clubs. Hoffman boasts an elite shot and will help a Panthers power play that finished in the bottom half of the league last season.

Regardless of line combinations, the Panthers have a powerful, yet an underrated group of top six forwards, all six of which will be more than worthy of fantasy ownership this upcoming season.

Luongo’s Longevity

He’s 39 years old and is coming off a big season. Luongo played in only 35 games last year, but among goaltenders who played in at least 35 games, Luongo’s .929 save percentage ranked second in the league only to Antti Raanta’s .930 mark. The question is: Can he play enough games to be relevant?

There’s no guarantee of another season where he posts a save percentage approaching .930, but I would gladly take a .920 mark and have him notch 30 wins in those 50-55 contests. Injuries are obviously not a positive aspect to the game, but the less wear and tear on his body at this age could allow him to perform at his peak when he is between the pipes. I would not let the age concern deter me from rostering a goaltender on a team that could legitimately compete for a top three spot in the Atlantic.

Montreal Canadiens

So, Who Up Front?

It was easy to predict the Canadiens were going to be among the league’s worst offenses last season, and there isn’t a lot of hope that they can make a substantial move forward from being the league’s 29^th-ranked offense from a season ago.

The group up front is largely the same save for the Galchenyuk for Domi swap, but Domi scored nine goals last season, and five of those went into an empty net. There’s reason to believe that Jonathan Drouin and Max Pacioretty can improve on their production from a season ago, but I’m still convinced Drouin is not a true center and is outmatched for the most part against competing top centers around the league. He’s a better fit on the wing, but as was the case with Galchenyuk, the Habs are forced to put him down the middle with a severe lack of depth at center ice.

Brendan Gallagher somehow managed to pot 30 goals last season, and he is most definitely worth owning, especially in banger leagues. Other than him, Pacioretty, Domi and Drouin are your best bets with some streaky production from players like Artturi Lehkonen, Phillip Danault and Nikita Scherbak a possibility.

Can Price Bounce Back?

The Canadiens better hope so, because Price’s 10-year, $84M contract kicks in this season.

Along with mostly all of his teammates, Price endured a down season last year in which he posted a career-worst in save percentage (.900) and goals against average (3.11). He battled injuries again last season, appearing in only 49 games, 48 of which were starts.

Look, Price is going to bounce back. He should be fully healthy to start the season, and solid improvements on his SV% and GAA are likely. That said, can he rack up enough wins to remain a top-tier goaltender? Is the Habs’ defense, sans Shea Weber for at least half the year, good enough to prevent Grade-A scoring chances on a consistent bases?

The answer to those questions is most likely no, which means I would likely avoid Price as my top netminder and hope to nab him as a high-end second goaltender for this season.

Petry and Done

At the end of the day, there isn’t going to be defenseman worthy of ownership on this Canadiens team aside from Jeff Petry, and Shea Weber, who is out for several more months due to offseason knee surgery.

The closest player to own on the back end aside from Petry and the IR-bound Weber is second year blueliner Victor Mete. That said, Mete is a 20-year-old defenseman who managed only nine points, and zero goals, in his 49-game rookie season, so his fantasy-relevant days are in his future, not his present.

Ottawa Senators

Bounce Back Bobby?

It seems like Bobby Ryan has broken his hand a half-dozen times in the last couple years, and as is the case in the world’s best league, it’s very difficult to remain productive while battling injuries.

Cann Bobby bounce back? I think he can. I realize this is a player that has scored just 24 goals combined across the last two injury-riddled seasons, but the fact is the Senators have just about no one else on the wings, aside from Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel, that can be relied upon for offense.

The end result is going to be large amounts of first line minutes as well as top unit power play minutes for the New Jersey native. On a weak Senators offense, it would be a minor miracle to see Ryan approach his career-high of 35 goals set in the 2009-10 season while with the Ducks, but is it that hard to fathom, barring injury of course, that Ryan approaches the 22-25 goal threshold while playing alongside Matt Duchene and Mark Stone on the Sens’ top line and top power play unit?

I would take a flier on the veteran late in the draft at the very same time that everyone else has written him off.

Second Year Reps

At the time of this writing, it’s vastly unclear if and when Erik Karlsson is going to be traded. But if he does get dealt, Thomas Chabot is in for a big-time role on the Senators’ back end at the ripe old age of 21.

Chabot is an elite young talent who will be tasked with top-pairing duties and top unit power play duties next season, should Karlsson be wearing another uniform come the first week of October.

As a 20-year old logging just 17:31 of ice time per game on a brutal Senators’ club, Chabot managed to accumulate an impressive nine goals and 25 points in 63 games last season. The rebuilding Sens are in no hurry to rush Chabot into a 23+ minute role, but with few other semi-decent options on the blueline in Ottawa, it stands to reason Chabot will be given a substantial opportunity to increase his point totals in a big way this upcoming campaign.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Abundance of Riches Up Front

The Lightning are one of the few NHL teams where you can own eight of their top nine forwards and feel pretty good about it.

Of course, some are better than others, but with Yanni Gourde, a 25-goal, 64-point producer from last year set to the skate on the third line, you can see how deep Tampa is up front. The lone player on this top-nine group up front to avoid is rookie Anthony Cirelli who won’t produce enough offensive value to your fantasy roster.

Of course, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov are the heavy lifters here while Brayden Point will be one of the top second line centers the NHL has to offer. There is certainly a case to be made that Point is a better draft than Calder Trophy winner Mathew Barzal in New York, and I’m in the Point camp when it comes to this debate from a cross-category perspective.

Three of Six Ain’t Bad

The Lighting have three defensemen on the roster that are more than worthy of ownership this season, more than almost every team in the league can say.

Of course, Victor Hedman is a perennial Norris Trophy Candidate who is going to compete as the top defenseman in fantasy next season. Ryan McDonagh, although perhaps not at his offensive prime, still produced 29 points in 63 games last season while battling injuries. His points, shots on goal and plus/minus make him a solid third or fourth defenseman on a competitive fantasy squad.

Lastly, Mikhail Sergachev, embarking on his sophomore season, notched 40 points, a +11, 16 power play points (on the second unit) and 141 shots on goal last season despite logging a tiny amount of ice time, for a defenseman, at just 15:22 per game. Oh, and he was 19.

The top two to own here are obviously Hedman, and then Sergachev. That said, a fully healthy season from McDonagh will have him producing rock-solid value as part of a team with Stanley Cup aspirations.

Top Overall Goaltender?

Andrei Vasilevskiy was on pace to win the Vezina Trophy last season thanks to a 2.18 GAA and a .931 Sv% in the first half of the season, but he stumbled big-time to a poor 3.37 GAA and a .902 Sv% in the second half to fall far behind in the race.

That said, such a drop off should have been anticipated for a 23-year-old goaltender in his first full NHL season. This is a tough league, especially for young players, to remain at the peak of your game for a full season. The good news is Vasilevskiy bounced back to yield a solid 2.58 GAA and a .918 Sv% in the playoffs.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Johnny vs. Auston

With Tavares donning his hometown Maple Leafs sweater for the next seven seasons, there is a debate of who should be the first Maple Leafs center off the board. Is it the incoming Tavares or the incumbent Matthews?

For me, it’s Tavares and it’s not too close. As big of a goal-scoring threat that Matthews is already at the age of 20 (21 in September), Tavares is the superior cross-category producer and has one big advantage over his new teammate, and his name is Mitch Marner.

Marner projects as a top-10 right winger this season, likely due to the addition of Tavares, and his elite play-making skills should ensure a big season for the newest Leafs superstar. Marner was the single biggest reason the Maple Leafs ranked second in the NHL with a 24.9% clip on the power play last season while he also led the team with 69 points. Marner and Tavares are going to start the season together at both 5v5 and on the top power play unit, which gives Tavares the upper hand over Matthews on what should be an absolutely lethal Maple Leafs offense.

Big Move for Morgan?

Morgan Rielly was the Maple Leafs’ first-round pick in 2012, drafted fifth overall with plenty of promise for a club that continued to endure losing seasons.

He’s showed that promise at times, and has failed to live up to lofty expectations at others. But wait, he’s just 24 years old. In fact, Rielly is coming off a season where he posted, by far, a career-high 52 points, (his previous best was 36) to go along with a whopping 25 power play points, which was good for a sixth-place tie among defensemen alongside P.K. Subban of the Nashville Predators.

Can Rielly make a move into a top-10 fantasy defenseman this year? I think it’s more than possible. The Maple Leafs project to be one of the NHL’s top offenses again next year, and again, he’s only 24 and only getting better. He will once again be the lone blueliner on one of, if not the NHL’s best power play, which should ensure he racks up as much, if not more power play points than he did a year ago.

I would take a serious look at Rielly as a top-10 blueliner this year given the cross-category upside on a team that is going to take dead aim at a Stanley Cup championship next year.

Can Freddy be First?

I mentioned above that Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy should be the first goalie off the board, and I’m certainly sticking with that, but can Frederik Andersen be a sneaky Vezina winner this season?

In terms of goaltenders that were the most valuable to their team’s success last season, it’s hard to argue that Andersen wasn’t at the top of the list. He faced more shots than any other goaltender in the league, and he managed a .918 Sv% despite that. The Maple Leafs’ group of defenseman hasn’t improved much in the offseason, so it stands to reason he will be in for plenty of work again this season.

However, if he stands tall and leads the Maple Leafs, along with that dynamic offense, to an Atlantic Division crown, you would have to think he will be a strong candidate for the NHL’s best goaltender.

Every player from the Maple Leafs last season will tell you that he was the team MVP, and he could quite possibly sneak into the top three fantasy goaltenders next season with 65 starts for a team expected to rack up plenty of victories.