When searching for value, I don’t immediately go searching at the bottom of the board looking to throw a dart at a miracle.
The truth of the matter is the team’s closer or at the top of the board are going to be the ones delivering value as they are overwhelmingly likely to be the ones delivering bettors their desired value
That said, stuff happens. The best team doesn’t always win, nor does the best on-paper team. That’s why they play the games, folks.
So, for those of you who like to go bargain shopping for some stretched-out value on some long shots, I present a pair of NHL Western Conference teams you should be targeting in that department to represent the conference in the Stanley Cup Final.
*Odds courtesy of MyBookie
2 Western Conference Teams Sporting Significant Value
Calgary Flames (+1100)
To me, it certainly appears the Pacific Division is the worst in the NHL heading towards next season, and the sportsbooks are with me on that notion. The good news is that I also see the Central regressing, opening up opportunities for some longer shots to make some noise and I believe the Calgary Flames are going to be one of them.
One thing I will note is that we should be aware that there might not actually be an Eastern/Western Conference this season as the rumored All-Canadian Division would include these Flames, however I’m rolling with the futures we’re seeing for the time being and worrying about the unknown later.
Geoff Ward’s club did a fine job of disposing of the beat-up Winnipeg Jets in the qualifying round before bowing out to the eventual Western Conference Champion Dallas Stars in the conference’s quarterfinal in six games.
And then they Flames did some losing and winning in free agency, but more of the latter.
Calgary lost long-time defender T.J. Brodie to free agency after he had spent much of the last few seasons to the right of captain Mark Giordano on the team’s top defensive pairing and helped the Flames’ leader capture a Norris Trophy in 2019.
That said, it didn’t take long for the Flames to strike, and the best news of all for both the team and fans alike is it came at the expense of a division rival.
The Flames solved that hole on the right side of their blueline with former Vancouver Canucks blueliner Chris Tanev. Tanev, 30, spent parts of the last 10 seasons with the Canucks and showed an ability to contribute at both ends of the ice. That said, he’s known far more for his work in the defensive zone where he’s made a living getting in front of pucks and keeping the puck out of the danger areas.
Tanev is a shot-blocking machine and has blocked at least 122 shots in five of the last seven seasons. That said, those numbers would be far higher if he didn’t spend so much time on the shelf. The downside to the Tanev signing is that he hasn’t played more than 70 games in a season in his career and while he played in all 69 regular-season games for the Canucks in the shortened 2019-20 season, he also played in just 150 of a possible 246 games across the previous three seasons. Nonetheless, when healthy, Tanev is one of the more underrated defenders in this league.
Huge Chris Tanev shothanded shot block on Ovechkin late the 2nd period.
People talk about defensemen who play more like forwards as "rovers".
Chris Tanev is the rare "rover" who instead moonlights as a goalie: pic.twitter.com/X0s8sbyR9u
— Thomas Drance (@ThomasDrance) November 23, 2019
While the Tanev addition is welcomed, the biggest splash the Flame made this offseason was inking former Canucks netminder Jacob Markstrom to a six-year, $36M deal on the open market.
Markstrom, largely the Canucks’ team MVP from last season, turned in a career-high .918 Sv% a season ago and a .919 Sv% across 14 postseason contests, helping the team upset the St. Louis Blues before losing Game 7 to the Golden Knights in round two.
That’s the one that will sting the Canucks’ faithful more than anything. Now the Flames will look for Markstrom to keep up the solid work in goal, but as the heavy side of a tandem with David Rittich who has shown flashes of No.1 quality, but hasn’t been able to handle a steady workload required of that status.
Rather, I suspect Rittich will be an excellent backup/1B option to Markstrom before he himself hits the open market after the season.
What this team will certainly need moving forward is their offense to get back on track. They finished strong last season, but struggled to gain consistency for much of the season. That said, it’s largely the same core that tied for second in offense in the 2018-19 season.
The Flames endured some poor shooting rate fortune last year, but also ranked 11th in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5 and ninth in scoring chances for/60 at 5v5 as well. They deserved a better fate then their 20th-ranked offense would suggest.
If Tanev and Markstrom weren’t enough, the team also signed another former Canuck in winger Josh Leivo as a secondary scoring hopeful, but it’s the core of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk that need to carry this offense back towards the top of the league. If they can get into the top half of the league in offense and even approach the top 10, the Flames are in business.
The big concern for Calgary will be the performance of a pair of inexperienced blueliners in Juuso Valimaki and Oliver Kylington on the team’s projected bottom pair. Valimaki is a mouth-watering prospect and Kylington does have at least 87 career NHL games under his belt, including 48 from last season, but he logged just 13:42 per game and will be leaned on for a larger role in a condensed schedule this season.
Nonetheless, the Flames are set to make noise in the Pacific. They aren’t at the level of the Golden Knights across the entire regular season – however long that may be – but to me they have leapfrogged a Canucks team with serious issues on the back end while quite likely fending off the non-contending Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks within the division as well.
That would leave the Edmonton Oilers and Arizona Coyotes, and to be there’s absolutely no reason why this Flames team, with a stout top-four blueline and fine-looking goaltending tandem – isn’t the best out of that group as well.
I’ve already predicted a second-place finish in the Pacific for the Flames followed by a surprising run to the Western Conference Final where I’ll take +1100 conference odds at that point any day of the week.
Minnesota Wild (+2500)
Believe me, I scoffed at the Wild as much as the next guy, but when I went through my NHL season previews I began to see an avenue where the Wild could shock their way into contention next season.
In a turn of events, I’ll start with a negative in the form of a complete lack of depth down the middle.
They traded veteran Eric Staal to the Buffalo Sabres in return for Marcus Johansson this offseason. Staal isn’t a game-breaker at this point, but what he is is a natural, experienced, full-blown center. Johansson is not that, but with the way the roster is shaping up it appears they plan to use him as a first-line center. If they don’t, their options for such a spot are newcomers Nick Bonino or Nick Bjugstad while former top prospect Joel Eriksson Ek and Victor Rask are other options.
The team also decided to part ways with captain Mikko Koivu and allow him to sign elsewhere (Columbus) in free agency. Again, not a game-breaking pivot at this point, but a wildly experienced center that took care of the defensive end of the ice and was excellent in the faceoff circle.
Regardless of who they use and where they use them, that’s an uninspiring crop of centers. It’s rare you see a team march deep into the playoffs with that type of depth and inexperience down the middle.
Add in the recent news that Mats Zuccarello had arm surgery in Norway in November and will not be reading for training camp – without a timetable for his return – and the situation up front doesn’t look all too pleasant, so you’re right to be skeptical and write off the Wild right now.
But, hear me out.
You may be surprised to know that the Wild ranked 12th in overall offense last season and 11th with a 21.3% clip on the power play. Sure, regression will probably be had, but it’s the positive regression at the other end of the ice that has me sold on the Wild as a long-shot worth investing in.
The Wild teams of yesteryear were known for their stout defensive play and won games by out-defending their opponents. That did not happen last season.
The Wild ranked 24th in overall defense last season, a number not aided by their 25th-ranked penalty kill. Surprising for a group that seemingly sports a borderline elite top four in Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba, all of whom could play on a top pair of many teams across the league.
That said, let’s check under the hood here for a second. All the advanced metrics skeptics look away as the Wild – at 5v5 – ranked first in expected goals against/60, first in scoring chances against/60 and first in high-danger scoring chances against/60. Is that good?
When discussing that Dumba would return to the Wild and would not be dealt this offseason, general manager Bill Guerin had this to say about his team’s defensive core.
“I’m prepared to start the season with him, and we really like that,” Guerin told NHL.com. “He’s a good young player. He’s got good energy. I love his competitiveness. Our defensive corps, I’ll put them up against anybody’s.”
Sure, GM’s are no strangers to praising their clubs, but I believe the veteran of 1,263 regular-season NHL games would know a thing or two about going up against a tough defensive group.
Where the Wild didn’t fare so well last season? Goaltending. Despite allowing high-danger chances at the best rate in the sport, Minnesota goaltending completely blew that by posting a league-worst .770 Sv% on such opportunities. Add in the subpar work elsewhere at 5v5 and on the penalty kill and the .897 Sv% the Wild received from their goaltending last season ranked 29th league wide.
So, Guerin made some changes. He traded Devan Dubnyk and his .890 Sv% from last season to the San Jose Sharks (who interestingly ranked 30th in Sv% last season) and signed Cam Talbot coming off an excellent season with the aforementioned Flames.
Talbot began the season as Rittich’s backup, but come late in the season and into the playoffs the crease was his thanks to a fine 2.63 GAA and .919 Sv% across 26 regular-season appearances before he worked to a superior 2.42 GAA and .924 Sv% across 10 postseason starts.
The @NHLFlames are heading to the FIrst Round and Cam Talbot's (@ctalbot33) @pepsi shutout is a big reason for that. #StanleyCup pic.twitter.com/krLCq3XypY
— NHL (@NHL) August 7, 2020
Now, had the Wild benefited from that type of goaltending, they are a threat.
Talbot will presumably get the bulk of the work over Alex Stalock, but even Stalock posted a solid 2.67 GAA and .910 Sv% in his 38 appearances while youngster Kaapo Kahkonen posted a .913 Sv% himself in five games and also worked to a dominant 2.07 GAA and .927 Sv% in 34 American Hockey League contests.
Talbot carrying over his career-rebounding work from last season to next season is no guarantee, but what is vividly clear is the club is in a far better position in goal now than they were when they dropped their qualifying-round series to the Canucks in five games in the Edmonton bubble.
I mean, advanced stats loved the Wild last season. They ranked seventh with a 52.42% Scoring Chances For% last season. The teams ahead of them? Vegas Golden Knights, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche and Toronto Maple Leafs. Save for the Canadiens last season, the rest of that group can be categorized as very good to elite.
And then there’s the simple fact that they dominated the high-danger chance battle, ranking first with a 56.89% mark in that department.
It sure looks to me like the Wild deserved a far better fate on the defensive side of the biscuit last year. With better goaltending, their defensive ceiling could potentially be realized. I still don’t like the center ice outlook, but I’m with Guerin in stacking that Wild defense up against any other in the NHL and going from there at +2500 to win the west.
