Fantasy Hockey – Pacific Division Preview

Fantasy hockey is right around the corner, and it’s time to complete our four-part series breaking down each NHL team through a fantasy lens.

The point here is to highlight fantasy-relevant topics and themes for each club in hopes of helping you make decisions when it comes to players on these teams.

Let’s go ahead and break down the Pacific Division through a fantasy lens.

Anaheim Ducks

Veteran Bounce Back?

The Ducks have an aging core up front, and the loss of Corey Perry’s superstar output sent Anaheim to 18^th in league scoring last season. At the age of 33, can Perry bounce back and give Anaheim what they want from the former Hart Trophy winner?

I think he can. This guy was one of the top scorers in the entire league for many years. In fact, from 2007-08 through to 2015-16, Perry’s 300 goals were the third most in the NHL next to Alex Ovechkin’s 427 and Steven Stamkos’ 312. Over the last two seasons, Perry has managed just 36 goals combined and fell to just 17 last season, matching a career-low.

Still, Perry has been bitten by some very poor puck luck over the last couple of seasons. In fact, his tint 8.8% shooting percentage in the 2016-17 season was easily the lowest mark of his NHL career and miles under his 13% career mark. That number improved last season, but his 10.1% figure from last season is still well under that career average.

Perry still shoots the puck a lot as he fired 215 shots on goal two years ago and put forth a 194-shot pace last season, but missed 11 games due to injury. If he can get back to, say, 210 shots next season, his 13% career shooting percentage would put him at a 27-goal pace.

He’s not the same player he was in his prime, and skating is not his strong point, but I can see Perry getting back towards the 30-goal mark this season if he can maintain his spot to the right of the still-productive Ryan Getzlaf at both 5v5 and on the top power play unit.

Young Guns

The Ducks were quietly the league’s third-best defense last year next to the Kings and Predators, a very impressive feat considering the youth on their back end.

The Ducks will boast a couple of young fantasy contributors on the back end in the form of Cam Fowler and Brandon Montour. Fowler is already a veteran of eight NHL seasons at the age of 26, but he could be a real sneaky pick to enter the top-15 picture this season. He had had trouble staying healthy, but Fowler is likely to quarterback the top power play unit this season and has posted a 0.44 points-per-game pace in his NHL career. At just 26, there’s plenty of reason to believe his best offensive years are ahead of him and he has yet to have that breakout season after posting 40 points as an 18-year-old rookie.

At the age of 23 last season, Brandon Montour notched 32 points in 80 games while chipping in 12 power play points as well. He handled himself well on the top power play unit when Fowler was out and figures to see an increase in his 20:28 per game last season this year as a top-four blueliner.

He proved himself as an excellent offensive contributor in the AHL as he recorded 89 points over his final 104 games in the minors prior to making his NHL debut in the 2016-17 campaign. A larger role will see his production increase and it’s quite possible he could give Fowler a run for his money as the top scorer on the Ducks’ blueline.

Sneaky Good

There were a lot of excellent goaltenders in the NHL last season. Pekka Rinne, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck stole the show and were the three Vezina Trophy nominees. Antti Raanta quietly had himself a brilliant year. That said, not many goaltenders can have the season that John Gibson produced and remain under the radar, but he certainly did.

Despite battling injuries, Gibson managed to start 60 games in the Ducks’ crease last season, and I am expecting 65 this time around. Veteran backup Ryan Miller will still get some reps, but Gibson is going to get a heavy workload, one he can handle at the age of 25.

There aren’t many goaltenders in this league I’d rather have on my team in dynasty leagues than Gibson

Arizona Coyotes

Improved Offense

The young Coyotes are going to have problems scoring at times, but there’s little doubt in my mind that this is going to be an improved offense from last season.

Clayton Keller enjoyed big-time rookie campaign with 23 goals and 65 points, Christian Dvorak increased his points and shot total from his rookie season and Brendan Perlini scored 17 goals as a 21-year-old sophomore on the league’s 30th-ranked offense. Add in the high-upside addition of Alex Galchenyuk as the second line center and the steady production from veteran Derek Stepan as the top line pivot, and the Yotes could surprise some teams on offense.

Keller is deservedly going to be the headliner for this offense from a fantasy perspective, but I wouldn’t stop there. I believe Perlini and Galchenyuk could form some chemistry on the second line while Dvorak and rookie Dylan Strome will attempt to do so on the third line.

The top six in Arizona is attractive enough to warrant ownership in my opinion, and I would keep an eye on the third line youngsters as they begin the season.

Dynasty Darling

The Coyotes have a clear-cut number one fantasy contributor on the back end in the form of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, but is there anyone else that can contribute on Arizona’s blueline?

There is, and his name is Jakob Chychrun. Chychrun got into just 50 games last season and notched 14 points. However, let’s keep in mind that, as an 18-year-old rookie, Chychrun posted 20 points in 68 games for the Coyotes. That might not be an eye-popping number, but for an 18-year-old defenseman, that’s an extremely impressive number and equates to 24 points over a full 82-game season.

There is also the fact that Chychrun is currently projected to see first line power play minutes alongside Ekman-Larsson as the Yotes might be one of few NHL clubs that utilize two defensemen on their top unit. Such a spot would give Chychrun’s fantasy stock a nice shot in the arm.

He should be a big-time dynasty league target and one that could produce early and often this year at the ripe old age of 20.

Also Sneaky-Good

I mentioned above that Coyotes netminder Antti Raanta had a real good year last year, but the fact is he posted Vezina-worthy numbers, but just didn’t play enough.

Among goaltenders who played at least 40 games last season, Raanta’s 2.24 GAA was tied for the best mark in the league alongside Vegas’ Marc-Andre Fleury, but his .930 Sv% was the best mark in the league. He started 46 games last season and posted a 21-17-6 mark, but with a better offense in front of him his win total should improve.

Darcy Kuemper is a good backup who also enjoyed a nice year last year, but Raanta is the unquestioned number one goaltender in the desert to be sure. Barring injury, I could see Raanta get a full starter’s workload of 60+ starts next season. He is a high-end number two in my opinion and could make his way into number one territory Arizona can show improvement in the standings.

Calgary Flames

(Second) Best Free Agent Pickup?

John Tavares was the best free agent addition in the offseason, however I think there is a real possibility that James Neal was the second-best addition, when we combine talent and fit on his new club.

The Flames needed more scoring punch up front, and they signed one of the two top free agent wingers in Neal with other being James van Riemsdyk, who signed in Philly. Neal has struggled to stay healthy in his career, but since he entered the league in the 2008-09 season, his 263 goals ranks 15^th around names like Jamie Benn, Jonathan Toews and John Tavares.

Yes, he spent a few seasons alongside Sidney Crosby, but the fact remains that Neal is a pure goal-scorer by trade and would become an elite fantasy option should he skate on the Flames’ top line with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. If not, he’s still going to put up plenty of goals on the Flames’ second line while he is sure to provide substantial power play production while improving a unit that finished in a 28^th-place tie last season.

Who’s the Sleeper?

If you want to look for a sleeper on this team, I would take a hard look at Sam Bennett, especially in leagues that reward hits and PIM.

After being taken with the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft, Bennett has largely disappointed through the first three seasons of his NHL career. He actually scored 18 goals and 36 points in 77 games as a 19-year-old in the 2015-16 season, but the fact that those totals remain career-highs speaks to his struggles over the last two seasons.

If you look a little deeper, you’ll see that Bennett tallied a career-high in shots last season with 152, but he suffered from a small 7% shooting percentage, well under his 10.1% career mark with the result being a career-low 11 goals scored.

On the bright side, Bennett is still just 22 years old. He racked up 59 PIM last season to go along with 140 hits as well. We have some cross-category potential here if he can find a way to contribute more offensively.

He’s not going to start in a top-six role, but if he can come out hot he could certainly force his way into one. He will also see second unit power play reps to start, so he’s worth a late-round flier in my opinion, but only in banger leagues.

Dynamic Duo

If Marc Giordano and T.J. Brodie indeed skate together on the Flames’ top pairing, I think they can be one of the more productive fantasy pairs in the league this season.

Giordano is a cross-category beast with five straight double-digit goal seasons while he tallied 63 PIM and a career-high 214 shots on goal last season with 38 points to boot.

Brodie had a bit down a down year last year with only four goals and 32 points, and he’s not a big shot-taker with his career-high at just 133 from the 2014-15 season.

However, let’s keep in mind the Flames were the league’s 27^th-ranked offense last season. They added youth and speed in the offseason in lieu of some slow, aging veterans. This team is going to score more this season.

When they do, Giordano and Brodie are going to enjoy quality bounce-back seasons. Giordano should be the first blueliner off the board despite his age due to his superior cross-category contributions and first unit power play role. But don’t let Brodie slide too far, either. Both of these guys are going to be second-tier blueliners this season.

Edmonton Oilers

Who Gets Connor?

One of the best spots to be on an NHL depth chart these days is either to the left or right of Connor McDavid on the Oilers’ top line. So, who is that going to be?

Edmonton is going to start by using Leon Draisaitl as their second line center, and rightfully so. This means that it’s quite likely that former center Ryan-Nugent Hopkins is going to start to the left of McDavid on the top line as well as the top power play unit. There’s no way it’s going to be Milan Lucic.

To the right? We’re looking at Ty Rattie to start with another option being former first-round pick Jesse Puljujarvi if Rattie scuffles out of the gate. That said, Rattie found nice chemistry with number 97 in his brief NHL time last season as he racked up a healthy five goals and nine points in 14 NHL contests. He has a strong history of AHL production, so we know his offensive skills are there. Playing with McDavid is his best opportunity to unleash those skills.

Puljajarvi scored 12 goals and notched 20 points in 65 games last season, but he’s still just 20. He may not be developed enough to play with McDavid full-time at this point, but he’s likely next in line and he lengthens the lineup as he continues to improve. Tobias Rieder could also get a sniff if Rattie falters.

In a nut shell, Nugent-Hopkins has an opportunity to rack up career-highs across the board while Rattie makes for a nice late-round pick due to his spot on the depth chart.

One and Done

As it stands right now, there is only one sure-fire fantasy-relevant blueliner on this Oilers club, and its’ Oscar Klefbom.

In fact, I think Klefbom is a prime bounce-back candidate. After scoring 12 goals and notching 38 points on 201 shots in the 2016-17 season, Klefbom, like a lot of his teammates, struggled last year with just five goals and 21 points last season, albeit in an injury-shortened 65 games.

The Oilers power play should certainly improve, and Klefbom is the lone blueliner on the top unit. It’s unclear how Edmonton’s offense is going to fare with essentially the exact same group that ranked 20th last season, but I would bet heavily on a rebound from Klefbom as he should once again be a factor in multiple categories this season.

Leaning on Cam

We have seen both ends of the spectrum when it comes to Cam Talbot’s tenure with the Oilers.

In 2016-17, Talbot produced a 2.39 GAA and a .919 Sv% while starting a whopping 73 games to lead the league and notching 42 wins in the process.

Last season, he faltered to a 3.02 GAA and .908 Sv%, but still made 67 starts and won 31 games.

The Oilers signed 30-year-old Mikko Koskinen after another elite season in the KHL to provide a more reliable backup to Talbot this season. Still, this is Talbot’s team.

Barring a poor start to the season for Talbot, he’s most likely in for another 60+ start season. Even Pekka Rinne started only 59 games last season, so it’s likely Edmonton gives him a lighter workload than he has been used to in his time with the Oilers. For what it’s worth, his 140 starts over the last two years easily leads the league with Frederik Andersen’s 132 ranking second with Sergei Bobrovsky’s 128 ranking third.

Don’t panic if he makes 58-62 starts. That’s what most number one goalies do. Perhaps less is more at this stage after a tiring two seasons for Talbot. Less starts, better goaltending. I think we will get an improved Cam Talbot this season as he remains the Oilers’ top goaltender and one that is still a number one in fantasy circles.

Los Angeles Kings

What to Expect from Iyla

The Kings came out on top in the Iyla Kovalchuk sweepstakes as the former NHL superstar played the last five and a half seasons in the KHL.

Kovalchuk has posted back-to-back 30-goal seasons in Russia, which is impressive as his 63 goals over that span came in only 113 games. In a full 82-game NHL season, there’s no reason to believe he can’t crack the 30-goal barrier in his return to North America, especially considering his expected centerman.

Kovalchuk is set to skate to the left of Anze Kopitar, the Kings’ top center who happens to be coming off an MVP-type season that saw him post a career-high 92 points. While Kopitar did so with an outrageously high shooting percentage, he is a play-maker by trade which makes the fit with Kovalchuk all the more perfect.

Since the 2006-07 season, Kopitar’s first in the league, his 538 assists ranks seventh league-wide. His 295 power play points rank 6^th. Over the last few seasons, the Kings have been an average to above-average power play team, but with Kovalchuk aboard, they are going to be better on the man advantage.

So, what can we expect? I’d venture 30-35 goals, 70+ points and plenty of power play production, perhaps in the 30-point range and more than 250 shots. He could be a sneaky draft in his return to the NHL.

Back in the Top Five?

With the excellent goaltending performances from around the league in fantasy newcomers like Andrei Vasilevskiy and Connor Hellebuyck, top-five mainstay Jonathan Quick slipped out of that group into the next tier of goaltenders. However, can he make it back this season?

Well, he most certainly has a chance. The first thing to know is that Quick plays behind the best defensive team in the league. Not only in terms of their defensive group, but also a perennial Selke Trophy candidate in Kopitar. The second thing to realize is that Quick actually posted a .921 Sv% last season, the second-best mark of his career.

The final thing to know is that his backup is now Peter Budaj who struggled last season with injuries and was poor when on the ice in both the AHL and NHL. Budaj did post a very strong 2.12 GAA and .917 Sv% while filling in for the injured Quick in the 2016-17 season, his first tour of duty in L.A. However, I expect a big workload for Quick, even at the age of 32 with a lot of miles on his body. He’s certainly a 60+ start guy after starting 63 games a year ago.

If the Kings remain an elite defensive group, and improve in the standings from last season, which I believe they will do, there’s no reason to believe he can’t force his way back into the top-five group of fantasy goaltenders.

Who’s After Drew?

Drew Doughty is the top fantasy blueliner on the Kings, but in what order do we go in next?
There are three viable options to go second behind Doughty off of draft boards in Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez and Dion Phaneuf. The answer is Muzzin for the next man to go behind Doughty as he is the second-highest scorer on the Kings’ blueliner from a year ago while he gets first unit power play time, a spot that helped him notch 18 power play points last season.

The answer is Phaneuf as number three and Martinez as number four. There aren’t many teams that employ four fantasy-relevant defensemen, but the Kings are one, just only in deep leagues.

San Jose Sharks

Burns or Karlsson?

We certainly have a pickle on our hands, don’t we?

The Sharks’ acquisition of Erik Karlsson makes for a whopper of a decision in who should be the first Sharks blueliner off the board.

First, in leagues that count shots on goal, I’m going with Burns. Sure, Karlsson will likely outscore him in the points department, but it’s not likely to be a huge gap and they are likely going to skate together on the Sharks’ top power play unit, therefore there shouldn’t be a big gap in power play production either. Where there is a big gap is in shots on goal. Burns outshot Karlsson by 136 shots last season, and by 238 shots over the last two years combined, albeit in 16 more games.

In leagues that don’t count shots, it should be Karlsson to be the first one off the board. His 0.87 points per game led all blueliners last season, and that was on the league’s 25^th-ranked offense in Ottawa.

The addition of Karlsson to the power play will also steal some puck time away from Burns. It’s likely the power play will run through Karlsson with Burns playing more of a rover role.

You can’t go wrong either way, but Karlsson is one and Burns is two in leagues that do not count shots on goal.

Another Step Forward?

One of the quietest young stars in the game, likely due to geographical location, is Sharks winger Timo Meier.

At the age of 21 last season Meier tucked 21 goals and added 15 helpers for 36 points across 81 regular season contests. What makes those numbers more appealing to me is the fact they were accomplished in a third-line role, with under 15 minutes of ice time per game.

This season, Meier is likely to skate on the Sharks’ second line with star center Logan Couture and fellow winger Tomas Hertl who is also coming into his own. We can expect this be a very productive second line for the Sharks, especially since it’s a lock that Couture will be the Sharks’ highest scoring center again this season after leading the entire team with 34 goals last season.

In his second full season in the league, I expect another step forward from Meier. Could he reach 30 goals? Absolutely he could. He’s at a slight disadvantage in the sense he will be relegated to the seldom-used second power play unit, so his production is going to have to come at even strength, for the most part.

Nonetheless, he could be a big-time contributor on what should be a dynamite Sharks offense with two of the league’s top offensive defensemen in the fold.

Career Year in the Crease?

Martin Jones has produced some aesthetically-pleasing goals against average figures in his NHL tenure, but he has done so while playing for two of the league’s best defensive teams in the Sharks and Kings. Save percentage is a truer depiction of a goaltender’s individual performance, and Jones’ numbers in that department have been meager.

Jones posted a .934 mark in his rookie season across 18 starts with the Kings, but since then hasn’t produced anything spectacular. He’s coming off a season with a .915 mark while he owns that same figure in his three-season Sharks tenure.

Can this be the year Jones climbs out of mediocrity and into star-status? His team is going to be very good, and if he can log 65 starts or more like he has done in two of the past three years, there’s a real good chance he can record 40+ wins. At that point, we likely don’t need his save percentage to skyrocket, but it would be nice to see him gain a few points and get over the . 920 mark.

The Karlsson trade has many trickle-down effects, but he bolsters what was already a very good team, and we can certainly expect more wins while hoping he can improve in the save percentage category to boot.

Vancouver Canucks

Swedish Solution?

The Canucks are certainly not unfamiliar with Swedes solving their problems up front as Marcus Naslund and the Sedin brothers are firmly in Canucks’ lore. Add in current Canucks Loui Ericsson and Alexander Edler and the theme remains. However, another Swede is off to a nice start to his pro career as well.

Elias Pettersson won just about every award a forward can win last season in the Swedish Hockey League and will be one of the main reasons why Rogers Arena in Vancouver will continue to sell out in what’s expect to be another losing season out west.

Pettersson tallied 24 goals and 56 points in 44 SHL games last year to lead the league in scoring, as a 19-year-old. He’s NHL ready at this point, and he will start the season as the Canucks’ second line center. Furthermore, while he’s currently projected to skate on the second power play unit, I don’t believe it’s long at all before he is relied upon to provide offensive alongside Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat on the top unit.

He’s a must-draft in dynasty formats, and while we can’t set expectations too high on a poor Canucks offense, he should be a three-category contributor for this year and beyond.

Veteran Bounce Back?

After scoring 30 goals in his free agent season while with the Bruins in 2015-16, Loui Ericsson has scored just 21 across two injury-riddled seasons with the Canucks. Is he done, or can he bounce back?

I think he bounces back, if he stays healthy, of course.

Ericsson is going to see a top-six role to begin the season as the Canucks will need every bit of offensive upside they can get. That means he’s either skating alongside Petterson or Horvat, two centers who can help him produce. He’s currently projected to skate on the top line with Horvat and Boeser, which would be where his fantasy upside can be maxed out.

He’s not going to rack up many PIM or hits, and he’s unlikely to be a power play force, especially if his second unit projection holds true. But Ericsson could be a sneaky late-round pick if he continues to skate with Horvat and Boeser in the preseason.

His legs should be fresh after playing just 50 games last season, so don’t rule out 20 goals or even 50 points for the 33-year-old veteran.

Anyone in the Crease?

The Canucks didn’t sport a fantasy-relevant goaltender last season, but will things change this year?

Not likely.

Jacob Markstrom and Anders Nilsson are set to split duties in the Canucks’ crease again this season, with Markstrom to get the lion’s share of starts, as he did last season.

While his performance was admirable with a 2.71 GAA and .912 Sv% on a bad Canucks’ defense and team, there just isn’t enough fantasy value to extract there when we factor in his 23 wins. Sure, if a need arises due to injuries, Markstrom could help in the right matchups, but his totals aren’t going to provide a whole lot of value again this season.

Nilsson can for sure be written off in drafts at this point as he’s certainly going to get limited action to start the season. He saw just 24 starts a year ago and posted a disastrous 3.44 GAA and .901 Sv%. The only chance at production for Nilsson is if Markstrom goes down with an injury.

Vegas Golden Knights

Mad Max

It took a while, but Max Pacioretty finally got his trade from the Montreal Canadiens and wins up on a team that was desperate for scoring wingers after losing a couple of solid producers in free agency.

I expect a bounce back campaign from Pacioretty after he endured the worst season of his NHL career last year while an injury halted his season at just 64 games and 17 goals.

Still, from 2013-14 to 2016-17, Pacioretty’s 141 goals scored rank fourth in the league behind only Alex Ovechkin, Joe Pavelski, and Sidney Crosby.

He is set to skate on the second line with Paul Stastny, a play-making center who is much more of a passer than a shooter, which is a beautiful fit for Pacioretty and his goal-scorer’s mindset.

He’s certain to receive top unit power play minutes as well, so we can expect real good production in this department after just six power play goals from a year ago.

There’s little doubt in my mind he return to the 30-goal club again this season as the fit just seems so perfect entering the season.

Blueliner to Own?

Nate Schmidt is suspended for the first 20 games of the season, which makes this an easy question to answer, as long as he is playing on opening night.

Shea Theodore is now easily the top blueliner to own on the Golden Knights, the problem is he has yet to be signed to a contract from next season and therefore remains one of the few players from around the league left in RFA limbo.

When on the ice, Theodore is going to quarterback the top power play unit, and at the age of just 23, he is looking to improve upon his 29 points in 61 games from last season.

He is a dynasty darling as his spot as the top offensive blueliner for the Golden Knights is in no danger at the moment, and he should easily be able to set new career-highs across the board this year in a full 82-game season.

He would make for an elite third defenseman on your fantasy roster.

Wilting Flower?

Marc-Andre Fleury, like most players on the Golden Knights from a year ago, surpassed even the loftiest of expectations in his first year in sin city.

That said, he will be 34 in November and he has lot of wear and tear on that body. Can he repeat last season’s success or is he headed for some regression this time around?

I’m thinking somewhere in between.

I don’t think he ranks among the league leaders again this season, but I also don’t think his production craters, either.

What I am concerned about is his health, which would have me avoiding him in drafts. Perhaps he fits as a number two in later rounds, but he hasn’t started more than 60 games since the 2014-15 season and he’s started just 80 over the last two years. I think asking him to take on a workload in the 55-60 start range is going to be a lot, and it’s going to be at the risk of his health.

Call me crazy, but I am looking elsewhere in my draft initially, and letting things play out from there.