- Aaron Judge is on pace to match his record-breaking home run total from a season ago.
- According to oddsmakers, Judge is second behind Shohei Ohtani to win the MVP in the American League at +400 odds.
- The Yankees are six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East.
Currently, Aaron Judge is the runner-up to win the AL MVP at Bovada. However, you wouldn’t know it by watching the New York Yankees. Following his 18th home run of the season, and fourth in three games, Judge’s MVP odds shortened to +400.
It might take breaking his own American League record to win his second straight MVP award. Last season, Judge broke the record for most American League home runs in a single season.
In 1961, Roger Maris hit 61 home runs in a season. This record was broken after Judge hit 62 long balls last year. After the record was safe for over 60 years, there could be more history this year.
Unsurprisingly, it is Judge that is threatening to break his own home run mark. He could break all records along the way. Judge is on track to torch a 98-year-old Babe Ruth record set in 1924.
Along with an incredible OPS over the last month, he and Ruth are the only players in MLB history to have at least 12 home runs and 15 walks in a 16-game stretch. If you only want to include home runs, another former Yankee, Alex Rodriguez, joins this list.
In May, the defending AL MVP connected for a .342 batting average, 12 home runs, 25 RBIs, and 20 walks. Over the last 15 days, Judge has produced seven homers.
The @Yankees Aaron Judge has a 2.089 OPS on the road this month, which would be the highest such mark in the modern era (minimum 30 PA).
Currently, the best road OPS for a single month in the modern era is 1.838 by Babe Ruth in August 1924. pic.twitter.com/PfbHqc7uJb
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) May 31, 2023
Odds Shorten, But Not Considered The AL MVP Favorite
If Judge continues at his current pace, he will tie his record from last season. At the 46-game mark last year, Judge hit 18 home runs. In 2023, Judge is on the same exact place as he was at this time last year. He belted 18 home runs in 46 games.
Overall, the phenom is hitting .298 with 18 home runs, and 39 RBIs. Additionally, Judge owns a fantastic .410 OBP and 1.088 OPS. With all of this in mind, it would make sense that Judge is leading in WAR?
While Judge is leading the American League in home runs, he does not have the highest WAR in Major League Baseball. With a WAR of 2.9, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen edges Judge out at 3.0.
Currently, Pete Alonso leads the majors in home runs. Alonso has an even hotter bat than Judge with 20 home runs. Although, the New York Met is hitting .238 with a 1.7 WAR. The comparison ends at home runs between Judge and Alonso.
In March, prior to the first pitch this season, Judge had +700 odds to win the AL MVP award. Considering how hot Judge’s bat has been, bettors are worth wondering if an improvement to +400 isn’t enough.
AARON JUDGE GOES YARD FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT GAME‼️
(via @Yankees)pic.twitter.com/b4njJHMIcT
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 31, 2023
Judge Isn’t a Two-Way Player
Do you want to know why Judge isn’t considered the favorite to win the MVP in the American League? Simply stated, Judge isn’t a starting pitcher like Shohei Ohtani.
Not only is Ohtani pitching, but he’s doing it at an elite level while hitting well at the plate. Going into June, Ohtani is 5-1 with a 2.91 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.
At the plate, the native of Oshu, Japan, is hitting .269 with 15 home runs and 38 RBIs. These numbers are well behind Judge, but one can pitch and the other can’t.
If Ohtani wasn’t a starting pitcher, we wouldn’t be having this discussion at the moment. Judge would be favored to win the AL MVP. Instead, Ohtani has -125 odds to win the AL MVP in 2023.
At the moment, there are ten players with a better WAR than Ohtani. He is going into June with a 2.3 WAR, which puts him behind the likes of Kevin Gausman and Marcus Semien.
WAR isn’t the Holy Grail of barometers for measuring success in baseball. Nevertheless, it is another advantage for Judge over Ohtani following two months of the regular season.
Generational Talent Versus Once In A Lifetime
That is what we have with Judge and Ohtani. The 28-year-old Angel has already solidified himself as the best two-way player in all of Major League Baseball.
Conversely, Judge is an exceptionally talented hitter who will be remembered for a long time. That being said, duplicating Judge in the future should be easier than what Ohtani is doing as a star pitcher and hitter.
Judge is breaking 100-year-old records, but Ohtani is pretty close to doing it as well. Ohtani is the first player since Schoolboy Rowe to have more hits than he allowed over three starts. That is just Ohtani being Ohtani.
Last 3 pitching starts for the @Angels' Shohei Ohtani:
At plate: 4 hits
On mound: 3 hits allowedHe's the first MLB pitcher to have more hits at the plate than he allowed on the mound over a 3-start span (min. 15 IP) since Detroit's Schoolboy Rowe from July 28 to August 7, 1934 pic.twitter.com/Z8m0hkfslU
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) April 22, 2023
Last season, the Angels finished with a record of 73-89. Across 57 games in 2023, they are hovering around the .500 mark at 30-27. This has become the status quo in Anaheim.
As a team, though, Ohtani and Mike Trout have been unable to make this squad anything better than mediocre. It is quite remarkable that the Angels haven’t had success with Ohtani and Trout on the same roster.
The Yankees have the better record at 34-24, but both clubs are six games out of first in their divisions. If the Yankees take off, and the Angels regress in the second half, Judge’s odds should draw closer to Ohtani in the AL MVP race.
If there was ever a time for co-MVPs in Major League Baseball, this might be the year with Judge and Ohtani. These two will make baseball a lot of fun to watch through the summer months.
