On Saturday, May 6, the 106th edition of the Giro d’Italia gets underway with an individual time trial along the coast of the Abruzzo region. The first Grand Tour of 2023 will then race across Italy for nearly 3,500 kilometers (2,174 miles) before finishing in Rome on May 28.
Although there are 20 of the sport’s top cycling teams competing in this race, winning the 2023 Giro realistically comes down to just two teams: Soudal-QuickStep and Jumbo-Visma.
Soudal-Quikstep features the Grand Tour’s betting favorite in Remco Evenepoel who, has odds of -140 to win the Maglia Rosa jersey, which is the pink jersey given out to the race’s overall (general classification) winner.
Team Jumbo-Visma will be captained by Primoz Roglic who, cycling betting sites have listed behind Evenepoel with odds of +200 to win the overall general classification.
Let’s take the starting line, examine the top riders of the peloton, and see who we think will be wearing the Maglia Rosa in Rome as we make our 2023 Giro d’Italia predictions.
How To Watch the Giro d’Italia?
Unfortunately for cycling fans in the US, Peacock will not stream the 2023 Giro d’Italia, despite the fact that the platform will have full coverage of the other two Grand Tours this year: 2023 Tour de France and the 2023 Vuelta a Espana.
Instead, US residents will have to pay for a membership to GCN+ or have an account with a provider that has the beIN SPORTS channel like SlingTV.
My plan is to continue doing what I have done the last half-dozen years and that’s to find highlights or replays of each day’s Stage on YouTube.
G O O S E B U M P S #Giro pic.twitter.com/FXLOtzOo0E
— Giro d’Italia (@giroditalia) April 28, 2023
Previous Giro d’Italia Winners
The first Giro d’Italia was held in 1909 and won by Italy’s Luigi Ganna. Since then, three cyclists would go on to win this Grand Tour a record five times: Alfredo Bindo, Fausto Coppi and The GOAT Eddy Merckx, who also holds the record for most days in the maglia rosa at 78.
Last year, Jai Hindley won the 2022 Giro d’Italia. However, he won’t be racing in this year’s event. 2020 pink jersey winner Tao Geoghegan Hart is the only previous winner to take the starting line this weekend.
The following is a list of previous Giro d’Italia winners dating back to 2016:
- 2022: Jao Hindley
- 2021: Egan Bernal
- 2020: Tao Geoghegan Hart
- 2019: Richard Carapaz
- 2018: Chris Froome
- 2017: Tom Dumoulin
- 2016: Vincenzo Nibali
2023 Giro d’Italia Betting Odds
The following odds are courtesy of BetUS:
| Cyclist | Odds | Cyclist | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remco Evenepoel | -140 | Primoz Roglic | +200 |
| Geraint Thomas | +1000 | Alexander Vlasov | +1600 |
| Joao Almeida | +1600 | Wilco Kelderman | +2000 |
| Jack Haig | +2800 | Damiano Caruso | +3000 |
| Carlos Rodriguez | +3000 | Jay Vine | +4000 |
| Tobias Foss | +5000 | Hugh Carthy | +8000 |
| Ben Tulett | +8000 | Thymen Arensman | +10000 |
| Lennard Kamna | +10000 | Jan Hirt | +10000 |
| Giulio Ciccone | +10000 | Lucas Plapp | +10000 |
| Domenico Pozzovivo | +15000 |
2023 Giro d’Italia Betting Favorites
The following cyclists are listed as the betting favorites to win the pink jersey according to BetUS:
Remco Evenepoel (-140)
The 23-year-old Belgian cyclist is on great form heading into the Giro. He looked strong at the Volta a Cataluyna in March, but ended up falling short to Primoz Roglic by six seconds. Evenepoel last competed in the Liege-Bastogne-Liege on April 23, and dominated the field as he won by over a minute.
This will be the third Grand Tour appearance of his professional career. Evenepoel had a DNF in the 2021 Giro, but capped off the 2022 Grand Tour season with a victory at the Vuelta a Espana.
One week until the Giro d’Italia 😎#BeWhoYouAre
Photo: @SportplusM pic.twitter.com/pQB06UXEVz
— Soudal Quick-Step Pro Cycling Team (@soudalquickstep) April 29, 2023
Following the Vuelta, Evenepoel went on to finish third at the World’s Individual Time Trial and won the World’s Road Race. He’s proven to be one of the best time trialists among GC contenders and also has the legs to climb with the peloton’s best.
If Evenepoel gets any help from his team, this will be his Grand Tour to lose.
Primoz Roglic (+200)
Speaking of teams, Primoz Roglic has the best team at the 2023 Giro. Jumbo-Visma has sent a strong group of riders to support Roglic’s quest of winning his first Giro d’Italia. Cyclists like Sepp Kuss, Robert Gesink and Jan Tratnik will help the 33-year-old Slovenian contend for the maglia rosa.
In addition to a strong team, Roglic has looked great this Spring. In the two stage races that he competed in, Roglic won both of them: Tirreno-Adriatico and Volta a Catalunya.
This will be his first appearance in the Giro since 2019 when he finished 3rd. The three-time Vuelta winner has yet to win the Giro, but he is clearly the one man that can defeat Evenepoel in Italy.
Geraint Thomas (+1000)
When it comes to online sports betting, oddsmakers clearly got this one wrong. Geraint Thomas should not be listed as one of the overall betting favorites for the Giro d’Italia. He’s not even the best rider on his own team INEOS Grenadiers. That honor goes to Tao Geoghegan Hart.
Thomas will turn 37 years old during the Giro and his age is showing in the way he’s riding. Thomas has yet to even crack the Top 10 in a race this year. His best result was 15th at the Tour of the Alps, but he was never even a threat to win a stage in that race.
Thomas has an illustrious Grand Tour resume with a Tour de France victory in 2018, a runner up in the 2019 Tour de France, and a surprising 3rd place finish in the 2022 TDF. But since then, he’s yet to be a contender in any bike race.
Thomas is a solid time trialist, but he does not have the kick in the mountains like Roglic and Evenepoel. In fact, I doubt Thomas is even a threat to finish in the Top 7 at the 2023 Giro.
There are much better options to wager on than Thomas. Save your money and take a flier on one of the riders below.
The Best Giro d’Italia Betting Value
Joao Almeida at +1600 odds offers the best betting value for the 2023 Giro d’Italia. The 24-year-old rider from Portugal has looked strong this season. He finished 3rd at the Volta a Catalunya and was 2nd at Tirreno-Adriatico.
His runner-up result at Tirreno-Adriatico was a solid finish as he was only 18 seconds behind Primoz Roglic for the win. He was also ahead of Tao Geoghegan Hart who finished 3rd.
Almeida has four Grand Tour appearances and finished in three of them. He was 4th at the 2020 Giro, 6th in 2021, and was forced out of last year’s race due to Covid. However, Almeida came back in the fall to finish 5th at the Vuelta.
Jay Vine will be a co-leader on Team UAE, but Almeida is in better form and is better suited for this three-week stage race. Almeida should be one of the three betting favorites to win the pink jersey and he is one of the only GC riders who can hang with Roglic and Evenepoel in the mountains.
The Best Giro d’Italia Longshot
My top longshot for the 2023 Giro d’Italia is Hugh Carthy at +8000. Sports betting sites have listed Carthy with massive odds to win, but I believe they’ve missed the boat on the British rider.
Carthy has put together a solid 2023 season so far with an 8th place finish at Tirreno-Adriatico in March and a 2nd place finish at the Tour of Alps two weeks ago.
In 11 Grand Tour appearances, Carthy has three Top 10 finishes including a podium result in the 2020 Vuelta. The Brit was 9th in the Giro last year and 9th in 2021.
Hugh Carthy: This is a tougher Giro d’Italia than other years https://t.co/stgFoH0LdO
— Cyclingnews (@Cyclingnewsfeed) April 28, 2023
Carthy has a strong team this year in EF Education-EasyPost with co-leader Rigoberto Uran and other talented riders like Alexander Cepeda and Ben Healy.
The third week of this year’s Giro features plenty of steep climbs that suit Carthy. I expect the talented rider to make a run up the Giro standings in the final week and could even crash the podium. If the favorites crack, Carthy could take advantage of it and challenge for the maglia rosa.
Who Wins The 2023 Giro d’Italia?
The 2023 Giro d’Italia will be a two-man race between Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel. In 2023, Roglic has gotten the better of Evenepoel when the veteran rider won the Volta a Catalunya.
In the 2022 Vuelta a Espana, Roglic was forced out of the race and Evenepoel would go on to win it. These two riders were battling it out for the Vuelta lead before Roglic’s departure.
Now, all eyes will be on the pink jersey battle between these two talented cyclists as they race across Italy to win the Giro.
With that in mind, Roglic provides the better value, but Evenepoel is poised to take that next step in becoming one of the sport’s top stars and it starts with a career defining victory over Roglic, Jumbo Visma, and the rest of the peloton at the Giro.
It pains me to pick against Roglic as I am a big fan of Primoz, and I will be rooting for him to win, but Evenepoel is 10 years younger, is arguably the better time trialist, and has the legs to hang with Roglic in the mountains.
Crashes aside, as long as Evenepoel rides a smarter race than he did at the Volta a Catalunya, he should pull out the victory by time the Giro reaches Rome on May 28.
