2023 NBA Playoff Odds: First Round Series Predictions

On Saturday, April 15, the NBA Playoffs begin as basketball fans will be glued to their televisions for the next two months until a champion is crowned in mid-June.

Prior to the opening round of the 2022-23 NBA Playoffs, the Play-In Tournament will decide the no. 7 and no. 8 seeds in both the Eastern and Western Conferences.

The Golden State Warriors are the reigning champs after beating the Boston Celtics in six games last year. They have found a rhythm going into the Playoffs, but the road to the NBA Finals will be more treacherous than ever.

Let’s take a look at the current NBA Playoff odds available at the top NBA betting sites and make our predictions on who will win each series.

NBA Playoff Series Odds

All NBA Playoff odds are courtesy of Bovada.

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Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Series Odds

The Brooklyn Nets are not getting much respect from the public or oddsmakers. Despite avoiding the Play-In Tournament with a record of 45-37, they are tied for the worst 2022-2023 NBA Championship odds.

There are five Play-In Tournament teams with better odds to win than the Nets. If you want more disrespect, then look at their Playoff series odds against the 76ers.

The Sixers are healthy favorites to top the Nets in the opening round. They have -900 odds to beat the Nets in this seven-game series. Are the Nets really that down and out in this series?

Brooklyn is 19-24 without Durant playing this season¹. If Durant or Irving weren’t Nets earlier in the year, it’s incredibly likely that they are not a 45-37 team right now.

Brooklyn is 20th in the league with 113.4 points scored per game. They are led by Mikal Bridges’ 26.1 points a game². He was acquired in the deal that sent Durant to Phoenix.

Jacque Vaughn’s defensive philosophy has resonated with the team since Durant left. The Nets are a Top 10 defense, with 112.5 points allowed per contest³.

That said, their defensive effort is not nearly enough to make up for a spotty and inconsistent offense. Joel Embiid and the 76ers are fully capable of putting the clamps on the Nets’ scoring ability.

top two not two NBA duo. 🤝 pic.twitter.com/pcAdbAegCW

— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) April 10, 2023

Nets vs. 76ers Series Prediction

Philadelphia is an elite defensive team in the NBA. It should show on the floor in this Eastern Conference series. A fundamentally sound defensive team is the last thing the Nets needed in the first-round.

Going into the Playoffs, the 76ers are third in the NBA with an average of 110.9 points allowed per game. And, despite scoring a mediocre 115.2 points per game, the 76ers have an offensive efficiency rating of fourth⁴.

The 76ers typically work for a good shot and run the floor well to get back on defense. Doc Rivers has employed a well-balanced approach. It should be too much for the Nets to counter.

There is no value on -900 odds at sports betting sites, but the No. 3 seed in the East will advance.

New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Series Odds

In what should be one of the most competitive first-round series, the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers open a seven-game tilt on Saturday afternoon.

The Cavaliers did enough to get the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage over the Knicks. They finished with a record of 51-31 for a four-game lead on the 47-35 Knicks.

Cleveland has come a long way over the past few years. In 2019-20, the Cavaliers were dead last with a record of 14-46. Last year, they were in the Play-In Tournament after qualifying as a No. 10 seed.

Now, the Cavaliers are a No. 4 seed and have home-court advantage against the Knicks in the Playoffs. The Cavaliers are on a promising trajectory, but where do they go from here?

Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, and Darius Garland make for a tough trio in the starting lineup. Mitchell didn’t need much time to feel comfortable in Cleveland.

He recorded a career-high 28.3 points per game and 48.4% field goal percentage in his first season with the Cavs⁵.

Cleveland had been spending years adding talent through the draft. Signing Mitchell was a big step forward in being a competitive team again.

With Mobley providing plenty of promise in the frontcourt, the addition of Mitchell gave the Cavaliers a legit veteran guard to run the offense.

The Cavaliers like to bring the pace of games down to a halt. That is when they are at their best. A quick and frenetic pace is not how they win games.

The Cavaliers are 30th in offensive pace per game, but lead the NBA with 106.9 points allowed per game. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency⁶.

Donovan Mitchell vs New York Knicks this season:

31.8 PPG
50.6% FG%
46.8% 3P%
7.5 AST
1.3 STL pic.twitter.com/u0W70vwMcM

— CavsMuse (@CavaliersMuse) April 6, 2023

Knicks vs. Cavaliers Series Prediction

In addition to the strong defensive numbers, the Simple Rating System lines up in their favor. Also known as SRS, the metric compares the strength of schedule and point differential. The Cavaliers are second in the league in this regard.

The status of Julius Randle is important for this series. While he is expected to play, Randle may not be operating at 100% with a bad ankle. Even with Randle, the Knicks are likely going to have problems cracking the Cavaliers’ defense consistently.

This should be a series that comes down to which team plays better defensively. The Knicks are a slow-paced team that prefers to establish a defensive presence as well. They are 25th in offensive pace and 13th with 113.1 points per game⁷.

The defensive pressure from the Cavs should prove to be too much to handle in this physical series. Look for the Cavaliers to prevail in six or seven games.

Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings Series Odds

The Golden State Warriors will begin their title defense with a tough series against the upset-minded Sacramento Kings. Out of the potential first-round matchups that the Warriors could have had, the Kings might be the worst-case scenario.

For the first time since 2006, the Kings are back in the NBA Playoffs. The Kings have not been this relevant since the Mike Bibby-Peja Stojakovic-Vlade Divac-Chris Webber teams in the early-2000s.

While there is plenty of work ahead of the Kings if they want to be remembered like that group, this is a dangerous team that should give the Warriors a workout.

The threat of the Kings’ terrific ball movement and running the floor is not going to be easy for the Warriors to keep up with. The Kings are first in the league in points and pace per game.

They notched an average of 120.7 points per game in the regular season. Additionally, the Kings lead the NBA with the top offensive efficiency rating⁸.

However, experience and defense are certainly working against the Kings in this spot. The Warriors own the defensive and the experience advantages in this series. That being said, motivation accounts for something.

The Kings are going to be amped up to be in the Playoffs. They also have the most underrated player in the NBA on their roster. Do not sleep on Domantas Sabonis against the Warriors.

Sabonis has averaged 19.1 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game. He has done all this while shooting at an incredible clip of 61.5% from the field⁹.

Joined by De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, and Harrison Barnes, the Kings are severely underrated. If the Warriors overlook the Kings, this series is going to get awfully interesting.

Saturday at 5:30 PM PST. Kings vs. Warriors. Game 1.

First Sacramento Kings playoff game in 17 years.

See you at Golden 1 Center. 👑 pic.twitter.com/nDE0LsvuvF

— Frankie Cartoscelli (@FCartoscelli3) April 9, 2023

Warriors vs. Kings Series Prediction

The Beam Team does not have a simple assignment in this first-round series. They are up against Steph Curry and the defending champs.

Experience is not on their side, but they do have much younger legs and are likely the hungrier team. The Warriors have the better defense, but this has not been an elite campaign.

Golden State is 21st in the league with 117.1 points allowed per game. They also have a top-notch offense, with the Kings being the only team in the NBA to score more points¹⁰. However, they’ve looked old at times on the defensive end.

The atmosphere at the Golden 1 Center is going to be electric. The Dubs are just 11-30 on the road this season. Home-court advantage will be huge for the Kings.

In a fast-paced series between the Kings and Warriors, consider this matchup to favor the underdogs. This might be one of the scarier NBA bets for some, but the Kings are worth considering at +230 odds to beat the Warriors.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Phoenix Suns Series Odds

The Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns engage in one of the most highly anticipated matchups in the opening round.

We have a series between two of the best players in the NBA over the last decade. Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard will step onto the floor for an elite battle of future Hall of Famers.

Paul George will not be available to open this series. George continues to deal with a knee injury, which will keep him on the sidelines for at least Game 1.

When he does return, rust could be an issue. George hasn’t played since March 21 against the Oklahoma City Thunder¹¹. Upon his return, he will be thrust into a Playoff series against the Suns.

The Suns are a perfect 8-0 when Durant has played this season. The former Net has not played a full schedule, but the Suns are perfect when all of their pieces are on the floor together.

Durant will be active for the Suns in the Playoffs. Devin Booker and Chris Paul will also be available. Not to mention, Deandre Ayton will be giving the Clippers issues in the paint.

Take Durant out of the lineup and this is already a very good team. The lineup screams points, but the Suns are capable of handling the Clippers defensively. Phoenix is sixth in the NBA with 111.6 points allowed per game¹².

Kevin Durant is the 1st 55-40-90 player in NBA history.

Durant 2022-23 | 56% FG | 40% 3P | 92% FT

Credit @StatsWilliams pic.twitter.com/SHmLvJnYFG

— Kirk Goldsberry (@kirkgoldsberry) April 10, 2023

Clippers vs. Suns Series Prediction

The Clippers really needed a healthy PG13 against the Suns. Leonard can’t do it all on his own. The depth just isn’t there on this roster when George is absent.

They’re a good team, but not nearly great enough to give the Suns a migraine. The Suns have too many options to allow one man to beat them here.

As hot as Russell Westbrook can get from the field, he can also be a careless liability at times. Norman Powell off the bench might actually have to be the X-factor for the Clippers.

Despite the Clippers coming up with a couple of wins, the Suns should pull away. The Suns in six looks accurate. Perhaps, one of the best NBA betting strategies this postseason is ride Phoenix until they lose a series. This team looks unbeatable.

Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics Series Odds

The Atlanta Hawks advanced to the 2023 NBA Playoffs following a 116-105 upset over the Miami Heat in the Play-In Tournament. As a result, the Hawks automatically advance, while the Heat will have another chance against the Chicago Bulls.

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray had big games, but the difference for the Hawks was the bench. Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Onyeka Okongwu all got into double digits, with Bey scoring 17 points.

That is pure determination against a Heat team that didn’t look interested until they were down big. In a seven-game series versus the Boston Celtics, the Hawks must maintain that same level of focus.

However, even then, the Celtics are going to be a much tougher out than the Heat. The Celtics carry a record of 57-25 into the playoffs. Milwaukee was the only team that had a better record in the NBA, and it was only by a game.

Boston is going into the playoffs with wins in eight of their previous ten outings. They wrapped up the regular season with a 120-114 win over the Hawks. This was a few weeks after a 134-125 victory.

Additionally, the Celtics beat the Hawks 126-101 in November. They are 3-0 over the Hawks this season and 5-0 dating back to last season.

Whether it has been low-scoring or high-scoring games, the Celtics have had the advantage. The Hawks have not been the only team that has been susceptible to the Celtics well-balanced approach.

The Hawks defeat the Heat and set up a first-round series vs. the Celtics 💪 pic.twitter.com/VOM1TG4fa5

— ESPN (@espn) April 12, 2023

Hawks vs. Celtics Series Prediction

The Celtics are in the Top 3 in offensive and defensive efficiency in 2022-23. They are 2nd with an offensive rating of 118, and third with a defensive rating of 111.5. Furthermore, the Celtics are first in the league with an SRS of 6.38.

Regardless of how the Hawks want to approach this series, the Celtics should have an answer. Boston is more than capable of going up-tempo or beating the Hawks with a slow, methodical offense.

Look for Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to take this series over in Game 1 and Game 2 at TD Garden. And while the Hawks impressed off the bench against the Heat, Malcolm Brogdon has been heating up for the Celtics recently.

The Celtics should advance to the next round in five games over the Hawks.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies Series Odds

On Sunday, April 16, the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis Grizzlies will open a seven-game series at 3:00 p.m. EST. The Lakers claimed the 7th seed with a nail-biting win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in overtime.

They won the game, but failed to cover the point spread and didn’t look like a contender. The Lakers are typically a public team. It helped provide some value on the Timberwolves against the spread.

Are the Lakers’ first-round series odds against the Grizzlies overvalued? Despite being the underdog in this series, the Lakers have better odds to win the NBA Championship.

The Lakers have +1200 odds, while the Grizzlies are +1800 at Bovada. That is a No. 7 seed vs. a No. 2 seed. While the Lakers’ NBA Championship odds are too inflated, there is a case for the Grizzlies being undervalued. In their previous six meetings, the Grizzlies are 4-2 over the Lakers. However, the Lakers won the 2022-23 regular season series with two wins in three games.

This energy. pic.twitter.com/7iiIToDMtJ

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) April 12, 2023

Lakers vs. Grizzlies Series Prediction

The Grizzlies are more than just Ja Morant. They have a starting five that matches up nicely with the Lakers.

In a series that could go six or seven games, the younger legs of Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are going to be an asset. Memphis should be able to force the Lakers into a one-dimensional game plan with LeBron James.

Despite allowing 113 points per game for 11^th in the league, the Grizzlies are second with a defensive rating of 111.2. Overall, this season, the Grizzlies are fifth with an SRS of 3.60.

Conversely, the Lakers are 16th with an SRS of just 0.43. They did not finish in the Top 10 in offensive or defensive efficiency.

The Lakers have LeBron and Anthony Davis, but the Grizzlies have more depth. Give us the Grizzlies who are being disrespected by oddsmakers to win the NBA Championship.

Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Series Odds

The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks square off in what could be a competitive No. 1 vs No. 8 showdown.

After finishing first in the Eastern Conference a year ago, the Heat went through the Play-In Tournament to earn a spot in the postseason.

There have only been four No. 8 upsets over a No. 1 seed in NBA history. Are the Heat going to be the fifth?

Giannis is the ONLY player in NBA history to average 30+ PPG, 10+ RPG, and 5+ APG on 55%+ shooting in a season.

Congrats on being a finalist for MVP!! pic.twitter.com/NdgnvyunEz

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) April 14, 2023

Heat vs. Bucks Series Prediction

In the regular season, the Heat were second with 109.8 points allowed per game. Nevertheless, the Heat offense has a tendency of going dormant at times.

Jimmy Butler and the Heat have recorded 109.5 points per game for 30th in the NBA. In addition, the Heat are 29th in offensive pace per game.

Entering the playoffs, the Bucks are fourth in defensive efficiency. They gave up points at times, but managed to get stops when it was needed the most.

Consequently, the Bucks are fourth with an SRS of 3.61, as opposed to the Heat at -0.13 for 19th.

Miami will not lay down. They might steal a game or two. In any event, the Bucks will wear down the Heat to avoid suffering an upset.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Series Odds

For the first time, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are going into the playoffs as a No. 1 seed. After years of failing to avoid the injury bug in the spring, the Nuggets have a healthy team going into the playoffs.

Despite finishing first in the West and Jamal Murray being active, the Nuggets are not a popular pick to win the NBA Championship.

Currently, the Nuggets have +1000 odds to win the title at Bovada. The Warriors, the No. 6 seed, have better odds to win.

On Friday night, the Timberwolves pulled away from the OKC Thunder to grab the final playoff spot. They dropped a tough one against the Lakers in overtime, but regrouped nicely at home in the Play-In Tournament.

The Timberwolves are not a bad team when everything is clicking. On paper, they look better than a No. 8 seed.

Do the T-Wolves have an upset in them?

A legendary moment between Jokić and Gobert in 2021 😂

Wolves face the Nuggets in Round 1 👀 pic.twitter.com/lTIVmpXm4I

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 15, 2023

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Series Prediction

In 2022-23, the Timberwolves were impressive against the Nuggets at home. They won both regular season contests by double digits.

However, the Timberwolves were not so fortunate in Denver at Ball Arena. The Nuggets won both matchups, including a 146-112 blowout in their latest meeting on February 7.

This is consistent with what the Nuggets have accomplished at home this season. They have the second-best home record in the league at 34-7.

There are four Nuggets averaging at least 16.3 points per game. Jokic and Murray both averaged 20+ points this season. Overall, the Nuggets are fifth with an offensive efficiency rating of 117.6.

Minnesota will have a decent crack at this series. This might even go to six or seven games. However, a healthy Nuggets team should prove to be too much to overcome.