2023 AL and NL Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions

As we approach the final days of the regular season, most pitchers have already submitted their Cy Young resume to voters. We are analyzing the closing MLB Cy Young odds in 2023, and where each contender stands at the top MLB betting sites in late September.

There isn’t much that contenders can do to impact their Cy Young odds at this juncture. The 2023 Cy Young favorites have solidified their position at the top of the heap. Now, the Cy Young awards are in the hands of the voters.

The New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole and San Diego Padres’ Blake Snell are well in control as the Cy Young favorites at the best sports betting sites. Is there a chance for an upset? Let’s jump into our final 2023 Cy Young predictions and the latest MLB Cy Young odds.

2023 National League Cy Young Odds

The following NL Cy Young odds 2023 are courtesy of BetUS:

The 2023 National League Cy Young odds suggest that we have a one-man race to the finish line. With NL Cy Young odds of -5000, Blake Snell has an implied probability to win of 98 percent.

As Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks and other NL Cy Young contenders regressed, the former Tampa Bay Ray elevated his effort on the mound. The Chicago Cubs’ Justin Steele rose up the ranks steadily, but he is running out of track to catch Snell.

In 2020, the Rays traded Snell to the Padres after he seemed to be on the downswing. After posting an ERA of 1.89 and winning the 2018 AL Cy Young, the lefty dropped to a 4.29 ERA the following season in 2019¹.

Snell regained his form the following season, but he dealt with injuries and only made 11 appearances. The Rays shipped him out to San Diego, where he has been playing some of his best baseball, three years later.

In 31 starts, Snell boasts an ERA of 2.33 and a 1.20 WHIP, with 277 strikeouts through 174 innings. He recovered impressively after a slow start, with Snell owning a 5.40 ERA in mid-May. If this talent-laded Padres lineup didn’t underperform this season, he’d be looking at a better record than 14-9².

Blake Snell, 97mph Fastball and 81mph Curveball, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/CIZSlnrrWl

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2023

The offense let the Padres down this season, but Snell did his part. Snell’s 2.33 ERA puts him well ahead of the competition in the National League. The New York Mets’ Kodai Senga is the closest pitcher to Snell, with an ERA of 2.96.

Justin Steele of the Cubs came on strong in the second half, but his 3.00 ERA is only good for the third-best in the National League. Meanwhile, pre-season NL Cy Young favorite (+600), Atlanta’s Spencer Strider, has slipped to a 3.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for 14th in the National League³.

The Braves have had success as a team, and are the favorites to win at best World Series betting sites, but Strider is not winning at +5000 odds.

Expect Snell to ride his filthy curveball all the way to his first NL Cy Young after capturing the AL Cy Young five years ago.

2023 American League Cy Young Odds

The following AL Cy Young odds 2023 are courtesy of BetUS:

The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole is the clear 2023 AL Cy Young favorite entering the final days of the regular season.

While the Yankees had a disappointing season like the Padres, they have the Cy Young favorite in their stable. Individual success doesn’t always translate to team success in baseball.

Currently, Cole has an implied probability of winning the AL Cy Young of 95.2 percent. That isn’t as confident as Snell’s 98 percent, but Cole is firmly entrenched in the driver’s seat.

In 32 starts, Cole has recorded an ERA of 2.75 and a 1.02 WHIP. He has notched 217 strikeouts across 200 innings of work⁴. Perhaps that ERA doesn’t sound the most spectacular, but the ex-Pirate leads the American League in several important metrics.

Cole is first in ERA, hits per 9 innings, walks & hits per inning, and WAR for pitchers at 6.8. Additionally, Cole leads the American League in adjusted pitching runs, wins, and ERA⁵.

“All of us playing behind him are trying to back him up as best we can because we know there’s something special on the line”

– Ben Rortvedt on Gerrit Cole’s Cy Young push pic.twitter.com/nEVl8owCu7

— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) September 22, 2023

The Seattle Mariners’ Luis Castillo has done a terrific job of improving his numbers after the All-Star break. He moved up from having the seventh-best AL Cy Young odds to open the season, to second at the end of the season.

Castillo owns an ERA of 3.06 and 1.05 WHIP, with 207 strikeouts. The 30-year-old veteran has been invaluable to his team, but he doesn’t have the numbers to oust Cole off the Cy Young throne.

If anything, Minnesota’s Sonny Gray is the only pitcher worth a flier to win the AL Cy Young. Gray is third overall in MLB with an ERA of 2.84 and a 1.17 WHIP. Only Cole and Snell have a lower ERA than Gray across the majors⁶.

Cole had the second-best AL Cy Young odds going into this season. At +325, the Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani was the Cy Young favorite in the American League. Cole followed behind at +375 odds to win the Cy Young.

Fortunately, we were able to grab Cole at this price in April. Now, there is no value on Cole at -2000 odds. Gray might be worth a flier, but it’s highly unlikely he receives enough votes to beat Cole.

Look for Cole to win the Yankees’ first Cy Young since Roger Clemons in 2001.