2023 NBA Draft Lottery Odds and Predictions

On Tuesday, May 16, the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery will take place at the Wintrust Arena in Chicago at 8:00 p.m. ET. Every so often, a prodigy emerges with the potential to significantly alter the future of a franchise.

The key word is potential, but Victor Wembanyama has all of the tools to join the ranks of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Kevin Durant, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Currently, the native of France is playing in Paris with the Metropolitans 92.

Standing at 7-foot-5 in shoes and an eight-foot wingspan, according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and Jonathan Givony¹, Wembanyama is an extraordinary physical specimen.

The 19-year-old is a big man that can work around the rim, run the floor, pull up from three-point land, and has the vision to find open teammates. Wembanyama’s build and lengthy frame are often compared to Durant’s.

However, if Wembanyama reaches his ceiling in the NBA, the Frenchman could become an even more complete player than Durant. This is how high the stakes are at the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery.

NBA betting sites are offering NBA Draft Lottery odds for the Wembanyama sweepstakes. In what is a random draw, you can bet on which team you think will get lucky and win the first overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery.

NBA Draft Prospect Victor Wembanyama shines in the @Metropolitans92 win!

25 PTS | 10 REB | 4 AST 🔥 pic.twitter.com/q93t1c4K1X

— NBA (@NBA) May 7, 2023

How Does the NBA Draft Lottery Work?

A drawing will be conducted to determine the first four picks of the NBA Draft. The teams with the 14 worst regular season records are eligible to participate in the NBA Draft Lottery.

The team with the worst record in the league, which was the Detroit Pistons, can’t select sixth or worse. After the top-four teams, the draft order will follow the regular season record from this past year.

Moreover, the teams with the three worst records will have an equal chance of winning the NBA Draft Lottery. The Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs all have a 14% chance of winning the right to select Wembanyama.

To conduct the NBA Draft Lottery, ping-pong balls are drawn from a lottery machine, which is manufactured by Smart Play Company².

Odds To Win 2023 NBA Draft Lottery

The following 2023 NBA Draft Lottery odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

There is no secret or NBA betting strategy to being successful at betting on the NBA Draft Lottery. This NBA prop bet is more like playing an online scratch off than handicapping a sports event. It’s probably best to consider this wager as an NBA lottery-themed game rather than a traditional sports bet.

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Favorites

The following teams are considered the betting favorites based on their chance of winning the first overall selection of the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery:

Detroit Pistons (+600)

The three-time NBA champs had the worst record in the NBA this past season. They finished with a record of 17-65 and showed little signs of life.

The No.1 pick from the 2021 NBA Draft, Cade Cunningham, played only 12 games last season. When he was active, Cunningham looked the part and showed improvement from his rookie year.

Cunningham averaged 19.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game³. Last season, the Pistons selected Jaden Ivey with the fifth overall selection. The Purdue Boilermaker showed plenty of promise.

Ivey recorded 16.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game⁴. He has the potential to take off in his second season.

RT to show some love to our guys @IveyJaden and @JalenDuren for making @NBA All-Rookie Second Team pic.twitter.com/hR4HX90u4D

— Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) May 8, 2023

Jalen Duren, the 13^th overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft, is a talented player in the frontcourt and would pair well with Wembanyama.

The Pistons might have been terrible this past season, but they’ve been bad by design. They have been in tank mode after figuring out how bad of a move acquiring Blake Griffin was in 2017.

With a young and promising core in Detroit, Wembanyama would slot in perfectly on this roster. It might take two or three years, but the Pistons would be a serious threat in the Eastern Conference if Wembanyama joins the mix.

Houston Rockets (+600)

Similar to the Pistons, the Rockets have several talented young players ready to break out. The Rockets put up the white flag after trading James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets in 2020.

Harden wanted a new team, while the Rockets tanking for a few years was best for their future. The Rockets have finished 17-55, 20-62, and 22-60 over the last three years. They’ve been able to stockpile some young talent as a result.

Rockets fans are dreaming of a scenario where Jalen Green and Wembanyama are on the same court together. Green improved on his rookie campaign this past season. In 76 games, Green set a career-high with 22.1 points and 3.7 assists per game⁵.

The current starting five for the Rockets is 23 years old or younger. Kevin Porter Jr. is the elder of the group at just 23.

Also, Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason are coming off All-Rookie Second Team selections. What is going to happen by adding Wembanyama to this roster?

The Rockets drafted a promising big man two years ago in Alperen Sengun, who is developing nicely after going No. 16 in the 2021 NBA Draft. The 6’11” Sengun notched 14.8 points, 9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game⁶.

The combo of Green and Wembanyama would be very nice. However, Wembanyama and Sengun could turn into something special in Houston.

The Rockets are ready to turn their fortunes around soon. Wembanyama would accelerate this process overnight.

San Antonio Spurs (+600)

The San Antonio Spurs organization might be the best situation for Wembanyama after arriving from France. Under the tutelage of Gregg Popovich, Wembanyama would have all of the resources he needs to be a successful NBA player.

Popovich has had a knack for coaching up some of the best big men to play in the NBA. David Robinson and Tim Duncan won NBA titles with Popovich at the helm. As Popovich nears retirement, Wembanyama would be one final curtain call for the 74-year-old head coach.

The Spurs are not void of talent despite finishing 22-60 in 2022-23. 22-year-old shooting guard Devin Vassell is on pace to be an All-Star. Last season, small forward Keldon Johnson continued to show improvement in his fourth year.

Next week… 👀

As we prepare for the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, here’s a look at our draft lottery history throughout the years! 📸⤵️ pic.twitter.com/0TgIG91EJR

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) May 7, 2023

Where the Spurs could improve is in the paint. Sandro Mamukelashvili showed strides in limited work this past season. However, he doesn’t look anything more than a role player off the bench.

The Spurs have holes to fill on their roster. Fortunately, over the next few years, the Spurs could own at least seven first and second-round selections.

Striking gold with Wembanyama would give the Spurs a centerpiece for an infusion of young talent in San Antonio.

NBA Draft Lottery Best Value Bet: Orlando Magic (+1000)

The Orlando Magic have a 9% chance of winning the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery. That doesn’t look like the best odds, but keep in mind, 14% isn’t a whole lot better.

Following the Magic’s NBA Draft Lottery odds, there is a steep drop to the next likeliest team.

The Indiana Pacers have a 6.8% chance of their ping-pong ball coming up in the drum. They are +1100, as opposed to +1000 for the Magic.

With more than a 2% difference between the Pacers and Magic, the Pacers are not getting the best value at +1100. However, the Magic at +1000 doesn’t look like a bad option to win the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday.

The Magic finished 34-48 for a fairly solid improvement over the 2021-22 season. They were 15th in the Eastern Conference at 22-60 a year earlier.

20-year-old forward Paolo Banchero was named the 2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year. He captured 98 of 100 first-place votes for a near-unanimous win⁷.

Along with Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., and Franz Wagner, the Magic are heading in the right direction. For a team that hasn’t had much depth over the last ten years, they’d suddenly have multiple options.

Head coach Jamahl Mosley would have endless sizable combinations at his disposal. Carter Jr., Wagner, Banchero, and Wembanyama are all at least 6’10”. This squad would cover a lot of space on the perimeter and in the paint.

The verdict is still out on Jalen Suggs. He finished strong this season, but has to show more consistency. This team has the opportunity to be a top contender in the East with the inclusion of Wembanyama.

NBA Draft Lottery Best Longshot Bet: Dallas Mavericks (+2800)

Could you imagine if Mark Cuban gets lucky and wins the NBA Draft Lottery with just a 3% chance? If there is any team that doesn’t deserve to get this lucky, it has to be the Mavericks.

The Mavericks had one of the most disappointing seasons in the league in 2022-23. Following a 52-30 season in 2021-22, the Mavericks cratered to 38-44 and 11th in the Western Conference.

FOUR-TIME ALL-NBA FIRST TEAM.

What a season for @luka7doncic 🪄 @ModeloUSA // #ModeloMilestone pic.twitter.com/Xp1tb7LDUp

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 10, 2023

That record was inexcusable for a team that features Luka Doncic. And, this is exactly why the Mavericks shouldn’t have the luxury of drafting Wembanyama.

Doncic and Wembanyama would likely be one of the most formidable duos in the NBA. Playing defense against the Mavs was not difficult for opponents this past season. Stop Doncic and force somebody else to get hot.

The chemistry just wasn’t there between Kyrie Irving and Doncic, but it would probably be there for the native of Slovenia and France.

2023 NBA Draft Lottery Prediction

This process to determine the top four picks in the NBA Draft is based on a lottery. Just like no one can tell you the numbers for the next Powerball draw, there are no guarantees in the NBA Draft Lottery.

Whoever wins the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery lucks out. So, who do we believe is going to have the most luck? It would seem like the perfect situation for Wembanyama is if he goes to the Spurs.

However, teaming Wembanyama with Cunningham and Ivey for the next decade, would be a treat for all NBA fans to watch. The Pistons haven’t been a contender since Chauncey Billups was traded for Allen Iverson in 2008.

They dominated the Eastern Conference in the 2000s. But the Pistons fizzled out after their core of Ben Wallace, Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Billups broke up.

The Motor City is not a top destination for free agents in the NBA. Drafting and trading is how they are going to get back on top. Landing Wembanyama would make this process much easier on GM Troy Weaver.