2023 AFC North Division Betting Preview and Predictions

Burrow Bengals

The AFC North is arguably the most exciting and competitive division in the NFL this season. Not only are there some historic rivalries in this division, but there might not be a more talented division in all of sports from top to bottom.

The Cincinnati Bengals have dominated this division over the past two seasons, but all four teams have playoff aspirations going into 2023. It wouldn’t be a shock to see any of these four teams take the division this year, as these four rosters are loaded.

We can fully expect this division to produce a ton of fantastic games this year. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the division wasn’t decided until the last week of the season.

But who will win the division and how many wins will each team get this year?

Let’s take a look at the latest AFC North odds and prop bets from the best NFL betting sites and make our predictions for the AFC North entering the 2023 NFL season.

Over/Under Odds and Exact Wins For AFC North Teams

The following AFC North odds and prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Cincinnati Bengals 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 11.5 Wins+120
Under 11.5 Wins-150

The Bengals are 22-11 over the last two seasons with Joe Burrow under center and have won the division in each of the previous two years. But they aren’t a team that is led only by their quarterback.

The Bengals have added a lot of talent over the last two years, including Pro Bowl LT Orlando Brown Jr. this off-season. They also have one of the best defenses in the league, led by a fearsome pass rush.

But the Bengals could go under their 11.5-win total this year as Burrow is already dealing with a calf injury. It remains to be seen if he will miss any regular season games, but expect the Bengals to be cautious with their franchise QB.

The Bet
Under 11.5 Wins

Bengals Exact Win Total

Look for the Bengals to make the playoffs this season, but to finish the season with a record around 10-7 as they try to stay healthy going into the playoffs.

The Bet
Exact Wins (10)

Baltimore Ravens 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 10 Wins-115
Under 10 Wins-115

The outlook for the Baltimore Ravens is relatively simple. When Lamar Jackson plays, the Ravens are one of the best teams in the league. And when he doesn’t, they struggle to win games.

Since entering the league in 2018, the Ravens are 45-16 during the regular season when Jackson plays. Without him, they are 4-8. The good news is that Jackson is healthy, and the Ravens have loaded him up with playmakers on offense.

The bad news is that Jackson has been unable to finish each of the last two seasons as he’s dealt with injuries and it’s fair to wonder if his playstyle makes him more injury prone.

The Bet
Under 10 Wins

Ravens Exact Win Total

The Ravens have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and one of the league’s best weapons in PK Justin Tucker. But it’s hard to predict them to win more than ten games this season, given how each of the last two seasons has ended with Jackson sidelined. Take the +650 odds and the Ravens winning nine games this year.

The Bet
Exact Wins (9)

Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 8.5 wins-155
Under 8.5 wins+125

Of the four teams in the AFC North, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the most uncertainty at quarterback. Kenny Pickett had a very up-and-down season, throwing just seven touchdowns in 12 starts. He did limit the number of turnovers down the stretch (one interception in his last five games), but he still wasn’t overly dynamic as a passer.

Pittsburgh’s talent on their roster doesn’t stack up well against the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns. But it’s hard to pick the Mike Tomlin-led Steelers to finish last in the AFC North. It’s even harder to bet them to win fewer than 8.5 games as Tomlin has never had a losing season as a head coach.

The Bet
Over 8.5 Wins

Steelers Exact Wins Total

The Steelers are the least talented team in the division on paper, but expect them to grind out 9-10 wins and avoid finishing in last place. It’s worth noting that the last time the Steelers finished last in their division was back in 1988 in the old AFC Central.

The Bet
Exact Wins (9)

Cleveland Browns 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 9.5 Wins+105
Under 9.5 Wins-140

There might not be a more complete roster in the NFL than the Cleveland Browns. They are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and now have a franchise quarterback in Deshaun Watson. Still, there is some pessimism surrounding the Browns as Watson struggled in his first six games with Cleveland last year. The hope is that he has shaken off some of the rust after missing most of the 2021 and 2022 seasons and the Browns can take off on offense.

The bigger issue is the defense, which was a massive disappointment last season. Jim Schwartz has been hired as the defensive coordinator and it will take some time to get his unit up to speed. But Cleveland might have the worst defense in the division and that could cause them to play in a lot of shootouts this season. Expect the Browns to be highly competitive again in 2023, but to go slightly under their 9.5-win total.

The Bet
Under 9.5 Wins

Browns Exact Wins Total

However, the Browns might have the widest possible range of outcomes of any team in the division, due to their quarterback. If Watson can get back to playing at the level he did in 2019 and 2020, the Browns have a chance to be one of the best teams in the entire AFC.

The Bet
Exact Wins (9)

2023 AFC North Divisional Winner Odds

BETODDS
Cincinnati Bengals+150
Baltimore Ravens+215
Cleveland Browns+375
Pittsburgh Steelers+550

The Bengals are still the favorites to win the AFC North and it’s hard to pick anyone else to win the division. Cincinnati might have the best defense in the division, and they have the most explosive offense of the group.

The only lingering question is the health of Burrow, but even if he were to miss a few games at the beginning of the season, they could still win the division. Remember, the Bengals lost their first two games last season and still had the division wrapped up before Week 18.

While the Bengals are the favorites, the best bet to win the division is the Cleveland Browns at +375. They have the best offensive line in the division and have arguably the best overall player in Myles Garrett. Their division chances rely on Watson and his play, but they certainly have the talent level to win double-digit games this season.

The Bet
Cincinnati Bengals

AFC North Finishing Position

OrderBengalsRavensBrownsSteelers
1+150+215+375+550
2NA+200+300+300
3NA+275+200+250
4NA+365+225+150

When it comes to betting on the exact finishing position for each team in the AFC North, it’s typically a bet without a lot of value. But the one intriguing bet is for the Pittsburgh Steelers to finish third in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh will find a way to be competitive and it seems unlikely they will finish at the bottom of the division. But predicting who finishes behind them is a bit of a challenge, as the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns all have better rosters and odds of making the playoffs.

However, expect Mike Tomlin and his squad to grind out nine to ten wins and figure out a way to avoid finishing last in the AFC North. Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game in the last six years and it would be a mild surprise if they did so this year.

While Tomlin’s job isn’t in jeopardy, it’s vital that his team doesn’t finish at the bottom of the division. Bet them at +250 to finish third in the AFC North this year and squeak into the playoffs.

PLACETEAMODDS
1st PlaceBengals+150
2nd PlaceRavens+200
3rd PlaceSteelers+250
4th PlaceBrowns+225
BetUS
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Marcus Mosher

Content covered on TSG: strategy

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at Pro Football Focus, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today's Sports Media Group, covering the Las Vegas Raiders.

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