The underdogs are what makes the NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament the greatest sporting event on the planet. We all love those March Madness Cinderella teams after they shock the nation by surviving the first weekend of the madness, but how can we tell if the slipper fits now, before the games are played?
Identifying potential March Madness Cinderella teams now, so you can jump on the bandwagon early, before Joe Public and the rest of the squares catch up in the Sweet 16, can make you a boatload of cash!
Successful sports betting is all about timing, and right now is the perfect time to look at which team in this year’s field of 68 will be the next Gonzaga Bulldogs or Loyola Chicago Ramblers.
Those teams famously took the nation by storm by making deep runs in March, and with this year’s field as wide open as I can ever remember, I am sure that we are going to have another March Madness Cinderella captivate the nation this year.
Check out our picks for the top Cinderella teams in this year’s Big Dance, and head over to the top March Madness betting sites to place some wagers on these teams. All odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
The Greatest NCAAB Cinderella Teams of All-Time
Cinderella teams are lower seeded teams, often no. 8 or lower, that have earned wins over higher seeded teams. These victories are unexpected and usually bust March Madness brackets. They also captivate basketball fans and create compelling storylines throughout the Big Dance. In fact, Cinderella teams are often remembered almost as fondly as the teams that cut down the nets as National Champions.
Biggest Upsets in Men’s Tourney History
These three Cinderella teams danced their way to the biggest March Madness upsets of all-time.
- 2016: Middle Tennessee over Michigan State
A befuddled Spartans coach Tom Izzo was stunned by the Blue Raiders shooting as Middle Tennessee State wrecked brackets by eliminating Michigan State, a trendy title pick, and becoming the eighth no. 15 seed to upset a no. 2 seed in tournament history. - 2022: St. Peters over Kentucky
No. 15 St. Peters began their magical run by eliminating no.2 Kentucky in the opening round and singlehandedly putting Jersey City on the map. As the 10th team to have ever accomplished that feat, the Peacocks carried the Cinderella label all the way to the Elite Eight. - 2018: UMBC over Virginia
The greatest upset in the history of the tournament, saw UMBC become the only no. 16 seed to have ever beat a no. 1 seed when they eliminated the top ranked Virginia Cavaliers. The Retrievers were 20-point underdogs and became the first tourney team in the previous 20 years to win outright with a +2750 line or higher.
The Madness of Parlay Betting
The only thing that can surpass the on-court drama of The Big Dance, is the madness that comes from Cinderella parlays. Combining three or more Cinderella teams could net you a massive payday. For example, take last year’s magical run of March Madness upsets that produced one of the biggest single day underdog parlay payouts:
- St. Peters vs Kentucky
No. 15 St. Peters shocked one of the sport’s Blue Bloods as they defeated no. 2 Kentucky in an Overtime thriller. St. Peters was a +1400 underdog as Kentucky was favored by 17.5 points. - Richmond vs Iowa
No. 12 Richmond stunned no. 5 Iowa in a Midwest Regional first-round game. The Spiders were +400 underdogs against the Big Ten champions who were favored by 10.5 points. - New Mexico State vs UConn
No. 12 New Mexico State took out no. 5 UConn and shook up the West Region with their 70-63 upset victory. The Aggies were +240 underdogs against Connecticut who was favored by 6.5 points.
A 3-team parlay on #15 St. Peters (+1400) over #2 Kentucky, #12 Richmond (+400) over #5 Iowa, and #12 NM State (+240) over #5 UConn would have produced +25400 parlay odds. That means, a $10 bet would’ve scored you a staggering $2,540 parlay payout.
2023 March Madness Cinderella Teams
The following is a list of our Cinderella teams for the 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament:
South Region: No.13 Furman Paladins (27-7)
The Furman Paladins made history this week, hearing their names called on Selection Sunday for the first time in 43 years! That snapped the 15th longest NCAA Men’s Basketball tournament drought in history. The Paladins have plenty of reasons to celebrate, win or lose this weekend, but mark my words, this team isn’t here to just take part, they are here to take over!
Furman has been very good under head coach Bob Richey, as his Paladins have finished inside of the top-100 nationally in each of his six seasons at the helm in Greenville. And while that has not led to a lot of postseason success, that is quite an accomplishment for a team playing in the SOCON.
Furman needed to win the SOCON conference tournament to punch their dance card to the madness and they took care of business with wins over Mercer, Western Carolina, and Chattanooga on their way to the league championship title.
Going back to late last year, few teams in the country are hotter than the Paladins, as Furman has won fourteen of their last fifteen and twenty of their last twenty-three games.
The Paladins win games by playing outrageously efficient on the offensive side of the floor. In fact, Furman finished the year ranked as the number one team in the country in 2-point field goal shooting percentage at a sizzling hot 59.1% shooting.
It is hard to lose when you never miss a shot, and that hot shooting has led to a lot of wins stacking up for Richey and his Paladins.
First Round Matchup: #13 Furman Over #4 Virginia
- Furman (+190)
- Virginia (-220)
But when I look at the Cavs tournament resume since they cut down the nets in 2019, it has been, how can I say this politely? Underwhelming?
I certainly cannot blame Virginia for not winning a game in 2020 when the Big Dance was cancelled due to COVID-19, but I can throw some shade their way for getting bounced in the first round in 2021 and for not even making the tournament last year.
Oh, and does anyone remember when Virginia became the first ever 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed in 2018? When the Cavaliers were shocked by UMBC. It was the biggest upset in the history of the Big Dance. Check out our graphic below to see the Top 3 tourney upsets,
I love me some Tony Bennett, but if you take out that national title in 2019, his tournament results have been putrid, and I smell upset in this matchup.
It will be a strength-on-strength game, with the Cavaliers stout defense, ranked 25th in the nation per Kenpom, squaring off against the Paladins 33rd ranked offense. Furman will have to get hot, and stay hot, to have any chance of pulling off the upset, but they have had a hot hand all season long, and the Cavaliers are on full upset alert in this one!
South Region: No.10 Utah State Aggies (26-8)
If you haven’t watched any Mountain West Basketball this season, you are missing out, as this league is one of the best in the country. The MWC finished the regular season as the 6th best conference in the country, coming in higher than the ACC, WCC, and the American Athletic Conference, and just a hair behind the PAC-12.
This MWC is no joke, despite the lack of national media coverage, and I see the league having a lot of success this weekend in the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament. One of the things that I look at when I am evaluating potential Cinderella teams in the Big Dance, is can they beat quality teams? And the answer for Utah State is a resounding yes.
The Aggies finished tied for second in the league standings with the Broncos of Boise State, finishing a couple of games back of conference kingpin San Diego State. The bubble was kind to the MWC as Boise State, Utah State, and Nevada all made the cut as at large bids. These teams are going to surprise some people with their level of play, as these are quality basketball teams.
Utah State fills it up from the perimeter, as they shoot 38.5% from beyond the arc, 11th best in the country. When you look back at many of the teams that have made March Madness Cinderella runs previously, many of them were elite 3-point shooting teams and Utah State very much fills that mold.
Do you remember legendary names like Jimmer Fredette from BYU, Steph Curry from Davidson, and Ali Farokhmanesh from Northern Iowa? Well, get ready to add Steven Ashworth from Utah State to that list of sharp shooters, as this kid can shoot the lights out.
Ashworth made over 100 3’s this season, connecting on nearly 44% of his attempts. When you have a guy that is a high-volume killer from deep like Ashworth is, you are never out of any game, no matter who you are playing.
ESPN’s Jay Bilas picks Utah State to upset Mizzou basketball in March Madness tournament https://t.co/fwlusUWz4v
— St. Louis Post-Dispatch (@stltoday) March 13, 2023
First Round Matchup: #10 Utah State Over #7 Missouri
- Utah State (-125)
- Missouri (-105)
The SEC is good this year, but something tells me that this league might run out of gas in the tournament. These teams beat each other’s brains in all season long, and after such a physical season, they hit March with more than their fair share of bumps and bruises. One team that sticks out to me as particularly vulnerable is Missouri.
MIZZOU had a nice season, with a winning record in league play, but their overall record is propped up by a joke of a non-conference slate, ranked 303rd in the country. And besides a pair of wins over Tennessee, most of their league wins came over underachieving squads like Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss.
The Tigers have a glaring weakness that I don’t think they are going to be able to overcome, and that is their inability to rebound the basketball. Missouri is laughably bad when it comes to allowing opposing teams to crash the offensive boards, as they 362nd in the country in that stat, with only lowly Morgan State allowing more offensive boards.
That does not bode well for them against any team, but it is especially bad against a team like Utah State that shoots so many deep shots, as those lead to a lot of long rebounds and 2nd chance points. Utah State will ride a big shooting performance from Steven Ashworth to one of the biggest upsets of the first round!
The NCAA Selection committee did not do Furman any favors, as they drew the recent national champions, the Virginia Cavaliers, in the opening round. This year’s Cavaliers squad looks a lot like Bennett’s other teams in Charlottesville, as they play an extremely slow tempo, and hardnosed defense.
West Region: No.10 Boise State Broncos (24-9)
We already talked about how solid the MWC is this year and Boise State is another one of those MWC teams that I see as a tough out in this tournament.
The Broncos dropped two of their final three games of the season to Utah State, which is why I like the Aggies just a little bit more than the Broncos, but that rough finish will not distract me from how good of a basketball team this is.
Boise has 13 wins over the national top-100 on their resume, including signature wins over the likes of Texas A&M, San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada. A key indicator as to whether or not you can beat teams in the NCAA tournament, is beating teams that are in the Big Dance during the regular season, and the Broncos did just that on multiple occasions.
First Round Matchup: #10 Boise State Over #7 Northwestern
- Boise State (+105)
- Northwestern (-125)
Boise State matches up with Northwestern, and despite the seeds saying that the Wildcats are the favorites, the oddsmakers are split, as some books have Boise as small favorites, and others are on the Wildcats side. Kenpom likes the upset, as his algorithm has Boise State winning this game and so do I.
Northwestern had a brutal finish to their season, as they lost four out of their last five games and they hit the tournament limping. Winning in March is all about momentum, and right now, the Wildcats are playing their worst basketball of the season.
The Selection Committee did not hold that against them, but I will, as I see Northwestern making a quick exit in this tournament.
It is exceedingly rare that you can back a double-digit seed as an odds-on favorite, but that is where I see this line ending by tip off. Keep a close eye on the odds because this line is sure to move around quite a bit, which means you need to line shop to make sure you get the sharpest number available. I am backing the Broncos and you should be too.
West Region: No.13 Iona Gaels (27-7)
Rick Pitino is by all accounts a college basketball coaching legend. He is the only coach in NCAA history to take three different programs to the Final Four and he will look to make that four schools this season, as head coach of the Iona Gaels.
Pitino took Iona to the Big Dance in his debut season in 2021 and followed that up with a 25-win season last year. This year, he has the best team he has had at this school, as the Gaels ride the nation’s 3rd longest win streak into the tournament, having won fourteen consecutive games.
The strength of schedule has been light for Iona, but that is typical of a team that plays in the Metro Athletic. Pitino played a solid slate in the non-conference, ranked 59th, so this team isn’t as non-tested as their SOS might suggest.
The Gaels stats are reflective of having a Hall of Fame coach, as they are well balanced, do not turn the ball over often, and do all of the little things right.
First Round Matchup: #13 Iona Over #4 UConn
- Iona (+345)
- UConn (-425)
I know that I am in the minority for this opinion, but something tells me that the UConn Huskies just aren’t very good. UConn rose to as high as number two in the AP Poll earlier this year and you could make a case that they are under seeded in this bracket at a 4-seed.
But my gut says that this team is ripe for an early exit. When I was breaking down bubble watch teams last week, I mentioned that in college basketball, players don’t win national titles, coaches do. And UConn head coach Danny Hurley has never won a single NCAA tournament game in his five seasons coaching in Storrs.
When you compare that to all-time coaching legend Rick Pitino, we have a massive mismatch in the coaching box for this game. All of the data suggests that UConn wins this game, and likely by double-digits. But a long history for both coaches tells me otherwise.
If you are looking for a shocker in the opening round, join me in placing a wager on Iona, as Rick Pitino takes Danny Hurley to school with a huge upset victory. And once the Gaels get past the Huskies, the sky is the limit for arguably the greatest active coach in the country.
Midwest Region: No.12 Drake Bulldogs (27-7)
The final March Madness Cinderella team that I am going to breakdown today is Drake. The Bulldogs lost on the final night of the regular season at Bradley. If it were not for that loss, they would be amongst the hottest teams in the bracket, as they have won sixteen of seventeen.
That span included a drubbing of Bradley in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament finals to avenge the loss in the regular season.
The Bulldogs have a knack for winning close games, as they have three overtime wins this season, and several more wins coming by single digits. When a game is tightly contested, this team is at its best, and that plays in their favor in the NCAA tournament, where most games are going to come down to the wire.
Drake has averaged twenty-six wins per season over the last three seasons under head coach Darian DeVries, so this is a team that has grown very accustomed to winning basketball games. DeVries has won at least twenty games in each of his five seasons at Drake and it is only a matter of time before he breaks through with some tournament success.
The last time Drake was seen dancing, they picked up a win over Wichita State in a First Four round game and I see them building on that success this year with a big upset in their opening round game against Miami.
First Round Matchup: #12 Drake Over #5 Miami
- Drake +2.5 (+110)
- Miami -2.5 (-130)
I am very down on the ACC this season. North Carolina was a complete bust and even the top teams in the league like Duke, Virginia, and Miami, just haven’t impressed me much.
After being the best conference in the country for seemingly decades, the ACC hasn’t been better than 5th in the last three seasons and finished a disappointing 7th this season.
The Selection Committee was far too kind to the down league in my opinion, as I had both Pittsburgh and NC State missing the tournament and would have much rather seen more worthy teams advance. For my money, both Rutgers and Oklahoma State would have been better selections, but what can you do, the ACC got some love.
Instead of crying over the fact that the ACC is over represented in this bracket, I will take advantage of it by fading their squads any chance that I can get.
Miami should have taken home the outright regular season ACC title, as all they had to do was win at home against an atrocious Florida State team to lock up the chip. The Noles had twenty-three losses this season and the Canes failure to take care of business at home with so much on the line tells me that this team just isn’t ready for primetime.
The Hurricanes had a chance to right that wrong in the ACC tournament, as they hit that bracket as the top seed. But yet again, they failed to get the job done, this time losing to the 4th seeded Duke Blue Devils. Time and again here late in the season Miami had a shot at greatness and came up short.
This just feels like a team that is going to choke if the opportunity presents itself and for that reason, I am taking the Bulldogs. Drake is a solid squad, that is on fire right now, but this play is a straight fade of Miami and their inability to rise to the occasion.
