2023-24 AFC East Division Betting Preview and Predictions

The AFC East appears to be the best division in all of sports this year as all four teams are viable playoff contenders. This division had two playoff teams last year (Bills, Dolphins) and has since added three-time MVP Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. And then there is Bill Belichick, the best coach in NFL history, with a team that could surprise this year.

All this to say that the AFC East should be highly entertaining and must-see TV all year long. But who will win the division and how many wins will each team get this year? Here are our predictions for the AFC East entering the 2023 NFL season. You can find these odds and prop bets at the best NFL betting sites.

Over/Under Odds and Exact Wins For AFC East Teams

The following odds and props are courtesy of BetUS:

Buffalo Bills 2023-24 NFL Season Predictions

Going into the 2023 season, the Bills are the top team in the AFC East. They have the highest win-total of the four teams and it’s not a surprise as the Bills have won double-digit games in four consecutive seasons.

Sean McDermott has turned his team into a perennial powerhouse, and they’ve been able to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs over the last few years.

It also doesn’t hurt that they have one of the best rosters in the NFL and a superstar quarterback in Josh Allen entering his prime. Despite dealing with an elbow injury last year, Allen racked up 42 touchdowns as he has firmly established himself as one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL.

His presence alone makes the Bills a viable Super Bowl contender and the scary part is that he can still get better.

The biggest obstacle for the Bills this season is their schedule. They play one of the most difficult schedules in the league and there are no layups in the AFC East. After winning 13 games last season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them take a small step backwards this year.

Look for the Bills to go over their 10.5-win total as we project them to win 11 games in 2023. +500 odds at football betting sites for an 11-win season is quite appealing.

LET’S GOOO!!!! 😤😤😤😤#MiamiDolphins #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/P4wogl90Z7

— Big E (@ian693) July 20, 2023

Miami Dolphins 2023-24 NFL Season Predictions

The Dolphins had a winning record for the third straight season, going 9-8 and making the Wild Card round of the playoffs. However, the season was somewhat disappointing as they were a legitimate Super Bowl contender before the Dolphins shut Tua Tagovailoa down for the season.

With Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins went 8-5 and had one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Without him, they were 1-3 and struggled to put points on the board.

If Tagovailoa can stay healthy during the 2023 season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them win the division. But if he were to miss any time, it severely limits the upside of this team.

Still, the over 9.5 wins seems like a good bet as the Dolphins have made a significant amount of improvement on defense. The addition of coordinator Vic Fangio alone makes them several spots better on that side of the ball and acquiring Jalen Ramsey to pair with fellow cornerback Xavien Howard makes it even better.

The Dolphins should win double-digit games in 2023, but there is a bit of a risk in taking them to win more than 10 due to Tagovailoa’s health. Still, this should be a playoff team once again as their roster is absolutely loaded with talent.

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When these Jets took flight, they ascended to great heights.

Introducing our Legacy White Uniform, inspired by the New York Sack Exchange. pic.twitter.com/zfceKkyuOh

— New York Jets (@nyjets) July 24, 2023

New York Jets 2023-24 NFL Season Predictions

There might not be a team in the NFL that is more interesting heading into the 2023 season than the New York Jets. If they had competent quarterback play last season, they would have been in the playoffs and could have made some noise. But that wasn’t the case and it’s why the Jets had to make the trade for quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Now that he is on the roster, the Jets are widely expected to make the playoffs and should be Super Bowl contenders. However, the Jets play a really difficult schedule this season and it’s only fair to expect some growing pains between Rodgers and the Jets. Their win total sits at 9.5 and the under feels like a good bet.

The Jets will certainly be a better team than they were last season, but expecting them to win the division is a bit of a stretch. We like them to win nine games (a two-win improvement from 2022) and to be in the playoff hunt.

Mac Jones starts his third year as QB1 of the New England Patriots.

Running into a pivotal year.@ABC6 #ForeverNE pic.twitter.com/VqCdleT7Bu

— Ian Steele (@IanSteeleABC6) July 26, 2023

New England Patriots 2023-24 NFL Season Predictions

The toughest team to figure out in the AFC East are the New England Patriots. They finished the 2022 season with an 8-9 record and easily could have made the playoffs if it weren’t for Jakobi Meyers giving away a game to the Raiders late in the year.

New England has made a major upgrade at offensive coordinator this year, bringing in Bill O’Brien to fix that unit. There might not be a bigger coordinator upgrade in the league as Matt Patricia was over his head last year calling plays. New England still has one of the best defenses in the league and that unit alone should make them competitive.

But are they an actual playoff contender? The answer is probably not, unless Mac Jones makes a big leap in Year 3. Still, they feel like a safe bet to go over their projected 7.5-win total as Bill Belichick will get the most out of his team. But expecting them to finish first or second in the AFC East feels a bit too optimistic.

We like them to finish around eight wins again this season and be in the hunt all year long in the AFC East. Eight wins pays out at +600 odds at sports betting sites.

Who’s taking the AFC East this season? pic.twitter.com/zZ9jlqEh7l

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) July 22, 2023

AFC East Divisional Winner Odds

NFL betting odds courtesy of BetUS:

The Bills are still the best team in this division as they have an incredible roster and a superstar quarterback in his prime. They’ve won the division in each of the last three seasons and as much as everyone else has improved this offseason, it’s tough to pick anyone else to win the division right now. And getting the Bills at plus money to win the AFC East seems like a major value.

But if you are going to bet on another team to win the division, the best bang for your buck has to be the Miami Dolphins. They are +300 to win the AFC East, but they have a chance to have a top-five offense and a top-five defense this year.

The Dolphins averaged 25.5 points per game with Tagovailoa under center last year and that includes three games where he left early. Without him, that number dropped down to 16.3. When Tagovailoa is on the field, this is one of the most explosive and dangerous offenses in the league. And if he were to stay healthy for the majority of the 2023 season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see them win 11+ games. The Bills are still the best bet here, but the Dolphins have some intriguing sleeper potential in the AFC East.

AFC East Finishing Position

This bet requires you to predict the finishing order for each team in the AFC East division.

AFC East Finishing Order

This bet requires you to predict the finishing order for each team in the AFC East division.

Predicting where all four teams in the AFC East will finish is a very difficult task, but let’s start at the top with the Bills. They are the favorites to win the division and have won the AFC East in each of the last three years.

While the other three teams in the division made some significant improvements this offseason, they are still well behind the Bills in terms of talent level. Plus, having a 27-year-old Josh Allen under center is such an advantage compared to the other quarterbacks in the division.

Coming in at No. 2 are the Miami Dolphins, who made the postseason last year. They nearly upset the Bills in the Wild Card round of the playoffs despite missing their top two quarterbacks. Their defense should be dramatically improved in 2023 and that unit should help them win games singlehandedly this season.

The biggest question mark is Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins have done a good job of adding enough talent around him that they can still win even if he isn’t on the field.

The most surprising prediction here might be the New York Jets, who we have finishing at No. 3. There is no doubt that the Jets should be an improved team this year with Rodgers under center, but the question is how much?

They play an incredibly difficult schedule, but they still should increase their win total by a few this year. However, the two teams ahead of them are much more established and have had multiple winning seasons in a row. It’s hard to predict that the Jets will leapfrog either of them despite having the second-best odds to win the division.

Then, there are the New England Patriots, who haven’t finished in last place in the AFC East since 2000 (5-11 in Bill Belichick’s first year). They should have one of the best defenses in the NFL and the addition of Bill O’Brien as the OC should make the offense much more explosive.

However, their talent level compared to the other three teams in the AFC East just doesn’t stack up. It also doesn’t help that they play the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. Expect the Patriots to hover around eight wins this season, but ultimately finish in last place in the AFC East.

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