The NFL season is still a few months away, but that doesn’t mean we can’t bet on the upcoming season. Sportsbooks have already posted futures odds for the 2023-2024 season, including Super Bowl odds, conference odds, division odds, etc. But today, I am looking at three 2023-2024 season-long win totals you should bet right now.
These lines are courtesy of Bovada sportsbook.
New England Patriots OVER (-110) 7.5 wins
The Patriots had a bit of a step back last season, going 8-9 and missing the playoffs for the second time in three years. However, they look like a team that could significantly exceed its win total of 7.5 at NFL betting sites for the upcoming season, despite having one of the toughest schedules in the league.
There are a few reasons I am optimistic about this team. Adding Bill O’Brien as the offensive coordinator should help stabilize the offense. While this certainly won’t be an elite offense in 2023, it will be far more balanced and efficient with a proven OC calling the plays.
The second (and most important) reason is the defense. The Patriots had the No. 11 scoring defense in 2022 (20.4 points per game), but they topped the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average). The stopper unit finished the campaign strong by allowing just 18.4 points per game from Weeks 8-17. New England added a bunch of key players to its defense this offseason, including rookie CB Christian Gonzalez.
New England will need to lean on its defense to win games in 2023, but it should have no problem doing so. Expect legendary head coach Bill Belichick to figure out a way to win at least eight games again next season.
Philadelphia Eagles OVER 10.5 (-160) wins
Let’s start with this; the Philadelphia Eagles have the best roster in the NFL and there isn’t a close second. And in the NFC, there is a big gap between them and the next-best team in the conference.
The Eagles won 14 games during the regular season with two of their losses coming when Jalen Hurts was out of the lineup. They won their first eight games of the 2022 season and started the year off at 13-1. This is an incredibly deep team that has stars all over the field.
Yes, the Eagles will play a first-place schedule and face the AFC East this season. However, it’s really tough to imagine the Eagles losing seven or more games this season. Even if Hurts were to miss some time, the overall strength of the roster is good enough to beat most teams in the NFC.
Philadelphia plays in a good NFC East division with the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants making the playoffs last season. But the defending NFC champions went 4-2 in their division last year and it’s difficult to imagine them doing worse this year.
The offense should improve with quarterback Jalen Hurts going into his fourth pro season. It’s fair to expect him to be even a little better this season after having a year to gel with A.J. Brown and the rest of his receivers.
Take the Eagles over 10.5 wins and expect them to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC, likely with 13+ wins again this year. They should also continue to be a strong Super Bowl betting favorite.
Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 11.5 (-135) wins
There is no doubt the Bengals are one of the best teams in the AFC. They’ve got a superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow and they’ve done a fantastic job of surrounding him with talent. Still, an 11.5 season win total at online betting sites is too high in my estimation.
First reason I’m shorting the Bengals: the health of Joe Burrow. He’s suffered an ugly knee injury his rookie season and the Bengals haven’t done much to improve one of the worst offensive lines in football. You can kiss your Over ticket goodbye if “Joe Brrr” misses more than one game.
The Bengals play in the best division in football. The Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are no minnows in the AFC North. It wouldn’t be a shock if division produced three playoff teams in 2023. While the Bengals are the favorites to win the AFC North, they went 3-3 in the AFC North last season.
And with the Bengals having a much more demanding out-of-division schedule in 2023, it wouldn’t be a shock if they only got to 10 or 11 wins this season. However, expecting the Bengals to get to 12 wins again this season seems unrealistic, given that they have to play a first-place schedule this year. Their division (and the conference) are just too tough for them to get 12+ wins again this season.
