The first month of the 2023-24 NFL season is drawing to a close and we already have numerous head coaches on the hot seat. In fact, there’s a strong possibility that one or more of these head coaches might not even make it through the second month of the season.
NFL betting sites have listed their odds on which head coach will be fired first. Let’s take a closer look at this NFL prop bet and make our predictions on which NFL coach will be the first to get axed.
NFL Coaches Fired In 2022
There were five coaches fired last season, two of which came during the 2022 NFL season. The first coach fired was Matt Rhule of the Carolina Panthers, who was fired after Week 5. The second coach that was fired midseason was Frank Reich of the Indianapolis Colts, who ended up being hired by the Panthers during the 2023 head coaching cycle. Here are all five coaches that were fired during the 2022 season:
- Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers
- Nathaniel Hackett, Denver Broncos
- Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
- Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts
- Lovie Smith, Houston Texans
First NFL Coach Fired Odds
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
| Coach | Odds | Coach | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McDaniels | +200 | Matt Eberflus | +225 |
| Ron Rivera | +300 | Kevin O’Connell | +1000 |
| Brandon Staley | +1100 | Robert Saleh | +1200 |
| Sean Payton | +2500 | Todd Bowles | +2500 |
| Mike Vrabel | +2800 | Dennis Allen | +3300 |
| Mike McCarthy | +3300 | Frank Reich | +5000 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +5000 |
Betting Favorites To Be First NFL Coach Fired
The following coaches are favored to be fired first, according to sports betting sites:
Josh McDaniels: +200
The betting favorite to be the first coach fired is Josh McDaniels of the Las Vegas Raiders. After taking over a playoff team from the 2021 season, the Raiders are 7-13 in their 20 games under McDaniels. The roster appears to be in worse shape than it was two years ago and they are averaging just 15.0 points per game through three weeks.
Raiders’ owner Mark Davis is pretty patient when it comes to his coaches, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the franchise move on after the 2023 season, should they continue to struggle. McDaniels needs to keep the Raiders competitive in order to save his job.
Matt Eberflus: +225
Eberflus has been the head coach of the Bears for 20 games and they have managed to win just three contests. Eberflus was hired to fix the defense, but Chicago has allowed 35.3 points per game so far in the 2023 season. They finished as the league’s worst defense in 2022, allowing over 27 points per game.
But what’s more concerning is the lack of development of QB Justin Fields. Over the last two seasons, Fields has regressed as a passer and the offense continues to struggle to put points on the board. With a bad defense and a struggling quarterback, Ebeflus is a strong bet to be the first coach fired in 2023.
Best Betting Value For 1st NFL Coach Fired: Brandon Staley +1100
The Chargers are one of the most talented teams in the league and have a superstar at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But Brandon Staley was hired to fix the defense and that just hasn’t happened. The Chargers finished 29th in scoring defense in 2021, 20th in 2022, and now rank 28th after three games in 2023.
The Chargers continue to struggle to stay healthy and are awful at the end of games. They also have Kellen Moore (offensive coordinator) waiting in the wings to potentially take over if the Chargers continue to find ways to lose games. Ownership has been extremely patient with Staley, but they could soon move on if the Chargers fall further behind in the AFC West.
Best Longshot NFL Coach To Be Fired First: Mike McCarthy+3300
The Dallas Cowboys are off to a good start in 2023, but did drop a game to the Arizona Cardinals in which they were 14-point favorites. McCarthy has produced back-to-back 12-win seasons and won the team’s first playoff game since 2018. But if the offense struggles at all, Jerry Jones could turn to Dan Quinn to take over the team.
The Cowboys would need to lose several games in a row before Jones would even consider firing McCarthy, but they do play one of the toughest schedules in October and November. A 4-or 5-game losing streak would likely need to happen for McCarthy to be fired in-season.
Who Will Be The First NFL Coach Fired in 2023?
The best bet on the board is Eberflus as the Bears have been a disaster this season. Chicago has lost 13 straight games, and their defense hasn’t been any better. And with Fields continuing to look worse by the week, the Bears could look to move on in favor of a coach who could help put Fields in a better situation.
Considering how poorly the Bears have played over the last two years, it’s kind of a shock that his odds to be the first coach fired aren’t higher. If the Bears lose to the Broncos in Week 4, it wouldn’t be a shock at all to see the Bears move on as soon as this week.
