2023-24 AFC South Division Betting Preview and Predictions

Following a mediocre season for AFC South teams, there might be a contender lurking in the division this year.

In 2022, there was only one team that finished with a record above the .500 mark – the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence showcased why the Jaguars selected him with the first overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Despite only finishing a game better than .500, they didn’t have any resistance in the final weeks of the season. The Tennessee Titans trailed the Jaguars with a record of 7-10. Indianapolis finished third in the division at 4-12-1, while Houston had the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft following a 3-13-1 campaign.

Head below to check out the latest 2023-24 AFC South odds and prop bets from the top NFL betting sites, and see which team we predict to win the division.

Over/Under Odds and Exact Wins For AFC South Teams

The following AFC South odds and prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The Jaguars 2023-24 season win total has them finishing roughly in the same place as last year. After a nine-win season in 2022-23, the Jaguars are expected to have a similar result, according to BetUS.

Jacksonville is poised for growth in the 2023-24 season. Lawrence is going into his third year in the league, which should bode well for the former Clemson Tiger. Following a lukewarm rookie season, Lawrence looked more comfortable the following year.

Lawrence opened up his NFL career with 3,641 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions on 66.3 percent passing. The quarterback had tremendous improvement in his sophomore year. In 2022, Lawrence threw the pigskin for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 66.3 percent passing¹.

With the continued development of Lawrence, expect the offense to move in the right direction. Last season, the Jaguars were tenth in scoring per game. They recorded an average of 23.8 points a game, which we should see tick up to more than 25 points this season².

Former Atlanta Falcon, Calvin Ridley, returns to the NFL after serving a one-year suspension for gambling. He joins Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram in a promising situation.

.@Trevorlawrencee in midseason form 👏

📱: Stream #JAXvsDAL on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXewtKp pic.twitter.com/XP9QO0DoV5

— NFL (@NFL) August 12, 2023

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Jaguars Win Total Odds and Prediction

The Jaguars are on an upward trajectory in the AFC South. However, before competing for an AFC title, they’ll need more stability on the offensive line and defensive side of the ball. The defensive depth isn’t at the point where they can be considered a championship level unit.

Josh Allen and Tyson Campbell can only do so much for the defense. The coaching staff will look to defensive lineman Travon Walker to step up. The defense has a chance to be good, but there are also question marks that have to be answered first.

Lawrence will win games for this team with his arm and legs. The offensive line could be better, though Lawrence is mobile enough to make plays by scrambling around. Lawrence alone should get this team into the double-digit win column in 2023.

If the Jaguars were in a tougher division, we would be more hesitant. However, the Jaguars are in a good spot to beat up on their divisional rivals.

Jaguars Exact Win Total

Expect to see the Jaguars improve on their record of 9-8. Having another productive season and winning the AFC South appears like a foregone conclusion. Look at the Jags winning one more game than they did last season.

Tennessee Titans 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The Tennessee Titans will look to get back to the Playoffs after a disappointing 2022 campaign. Following a 7-3 start to the season, the Titans lost seven straight games to finish 7-10 and out of the postseason.

It was an incredible collapse for a team that was favored to win the AFC South at football betting sites. Ryan Tannehill led the Titans to seven wins from late September into mid-November, but then they crashed in spectacular fashion.

Tannehill is expected to be back under center for the Titans, but he is coming off ankle surgery. The 35-year-old veteran was unable to finish last season. That said, the team was already in free fall, with six consecutive losses before Tannehill exited.

He concluded the year with 2,536 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 65.2 percent passing³. It was what you would expect from Tannehill. He wasn’t too high or too low. One of the underrated characteristics of Tannehill is his mobility, but there are concerns as to how mobile he will be after having ankle surgery.

Behind Tannehill, rookie Will Levis, and second-year quarterback, Malik Willis, are competing for the backup role. There is an above average chance that Tannehill is injured, and they have to turn to Levis or Willis.

QB Ryan Tannehill shares his thoughts on teaming up with WR DeAndre Hopkins for the #Titans.pic.twitter.com/ZKqyeI3EoF

— JOSE ALVARES (@Alvaresjose11) August 7, 2023

Titans Win Total Odds and Predictions

DeAndre Hopkins was the big free agency signing by the Titans this past offseason. Is a 31-year-old Hopkins going to be a difference-maker in a run-heavy offense?

Derrick Henry returns for his eighth season in the NFL. Henry is coming off another big year in the Titans’ backfield. He gained 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns on 349 attempts. Additionally, Henry was an effective pass-catcher with 33 receptions and 398 receiving yards⁴.

Henry did all of this despite running behind a terrible offensive line. Unfortunately, the team didn’t do enough to address the weak line in the offseason. The game plan is for Henry carrying bodies for around 1,500 more yards in 2023.

On the defense, the Titans extended defensive end, Jeffery Simmons, to a four-year, $94 million deal⁵. They needed that signing after DeMarcus Walker left for the Chicago Bears. Free agent signing, A.J. Moore, provides depth at safety, but doesn’t move the needle.

At plus money, there is value on the Titans to win fewer than eight games. We are playing the Under 7.5 wins on the Titans’ win total.

Titans Exact Win Total

The Titans haven’t won a regular season game since November 17, 2022. At the time, they were in the driver’s seat to win the AFC South. But we’re going into Week 1 of the 2023 season without the Titans winning since then.

With road trips to New Orleans and Cleveland, and their lone home game against the Chargers, there are no easy games in the opening month of the 2023-24 season. After a stop in Cleveland, they host the Cincinnati Bengals for their first game in October.

The Titans have to get off to a quick start to build up some confidence. That said, it doesn’t look too promising. A six-win season for the Titans isn’t out of the question.

Indianapolis Colts 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The Colts usher in a new era of football in Indianapolis. Rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson, has officially been named the Week 1 starter for Indy⁶.

The fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft won the starting job over Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger prior to the second preseason game. The Colts’ new head coach, Shane Steichen, didn’t waste much time announcing a winner of the QB battle.

Some quarterbacks go into terrific situations as a rookie. Unfortunately, Richardson is not going to have that luxury on the Colts. He was drafted by a Colts team coming off a 4-12-1 campaign.

The offense will lean on running back Taylor and Richardson. Taylor doesn’t really want to be with the Colts though. He has voiced his displeasure with the team and is seeking a trade⁷. The offense is going to resemble an option attack with Richardson, so a willing Taylor is important.

Colts name Anthony Richardson starting QB for regular season. pic.twitter.com/7SOHMKIyB2

— NFL (@NFL) August 15, 2023

Colts Win Total Odds and Predictions

In 2023, the Colts are operating with a new head coach, system, and a rookie quarterback. Additionally, their best offensive weapon doesn’t want to be in Indianapolis. It’s difficult to predict much from the Colts this season.

The best offensive plays from the Colts are likely going to be Richardson busting off long runs. His arm talent is still very much raw, but Richardson will rip off some big gainers on the ground. The former Florida Gator is an incredibly, athletic talent.

However, he doesn’t have a top-end offensive line and the defense is average at best. The interior of the Colts’ defense line has the potential to be elite, but the secondary is still young. They should be impressive in a year or two, though there are sure to be mistakes.

Colts Exact Win Total

We are not as optimistic as oddsmakers are with the Colts’ season win total. Don’t expect them to sniff seven games. This is more of a transition year for the Indy.

Richardson will provide highlight reel plays with his legs. For more than six wins, the Colts need him to quickly learn how to be an efficient NFL passer. It’s probably asking too much of the rookie.

The Colts can look at winning seven games next season, but it’s a stretch in 2023. Richardson needs a year to learn from his mistakes before getting to the next level. Four wins looks accurate.

Houston Texans 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The Houston Texans will have a rookie quarterback under center as well. C.J. Stroud was drafted two picks before Richardson. The Ohio State star put up gaudy numbers in college, but is it going to translate to the NFL?

There is no denying that Stroud has a cannon for an arm. However, that doesn’t always equate to a successful NFL career. This should be a learning experience for Stroud and the Texans, but they should improve on a record of 3-13-1.

He will be working behind what could be an underrated offensive line. The addition of Shaq Mason should have a big impact on the running backs. Also, in 2022, Laremy Tunsil was a standout in pass protection.

Robert Woods and Nico Collins will be asked to elevate their games as the primary receivers on the Texans. John Metchie also has an opportunity to make an immediate impact in Houston.

CJ Stroud carving up the Georgia Bulldogs defense in the CFB playoffs:

348 Yards (23/34) | 4 TD | 0 INT

3 days until he suits up for the #Texans.
pic.twitter.com/Tj17cBdRlx

— Bradeaux (@BradeauxNBA) August 7, 2023

Texans Win Total Odds and Predictions

Similar to the Colts, oddsmakers are really selling the Texans high this season. We don’t see the Texans touching seven wins. Again, the 2023 NFL season is likely going to be a feeling out process for the young players.

In any event, there are going to be signs of promise for the future. The third overall draft pick, Will Anderson, should give the defense an instant lift in the pass rush. Additionally, Sheldon Rankins was a big signing for the interior of the defensive line this offseason.

The future doesn’t look bad in Houston. There will be growing pains, but they will have plenty of young talent leading the charge. With an improved defense, we see the Texans winning more than three, but fewer than seven games.

Texans Exact Win Total

With an improved defense, the Texans should play better football than last year. Head coach, DeMeco Ryans, is putting this defense on the right path. They will not be perfect, but certainly an improvement from the past few years.

If Stroud struggles early on, the Texans have a dependable backup in Davis Mills. Entering his third season, Mills has starting experience and passed for more touchdowns than interceptions in his first two years.

The Texans look like a five-win team, which could push them out of the basement in the AFC South.

2023 AFC South Divisional Winner Odds

The following AFC South odds are courtesy of BetUS:

The Jaguars are well-positioned to repeat as champs in the AFC South. At BetUS, the 2023-24 AFC South odds are pointing to a Jaguars divisional title.

After winning the division with a mark of 9-8, a similar season would be sufficient enough to capture the AFC South title this year. We see the Jaguars trending upwards along with the Titans.

Meanwhile, the Texans and Colts are in the midst of building a solid foundation for the future. With two rookies at quarterback, the Jaguars are unlikely to be surprised by an upset. Make the Jaguars winning the AFC South part of your NFL betting strategy in 2023.

AFC South Finishing Position

According to the NFC South odds, at BetUS, the Jaguars will finish first, followed by the Titans, Colts, and Texans. While we have the Jags and Titans finishing No. 1 and No. 2, there could be a small upset for third in the division.

As we noted, the Colts top offensive weapon doesn’t want to be in Indianapolis. He is at training camp, but is still asking for a trade out of town. It might be in the Colts best interest to work something out, because Taylor could be a distraction and liability.

Richardson will lean heavily on Taylor to open running lanes to take advantage of his best asset. The Texans are not ready to compete with the Jags, but are capable of finishing third in the AFC South.

The Titans finishing second presents the best betting value at +225 odds.

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