2023-24 NFC West Division Betting Preview and Predictions

NFC West Division

The NFC West is filled with intrigue as we approach kick-off of the 2023 NFL season. In a division where we don’t even know the name of the starting quarterback for the betting favorites, the NFC West should be interesting in 2023.

The San Francisco 49ers are the clear team to beat in the NFC West. They are the only team in the NFC West with respectable odds to win the Super Bowl 58. However, the 49ers haven’t announced who their QB1 will be to open the 2023 season. We have a good idea of who they’re going with, but a quarterback battle is currently underway in training camp.

The NFC West looks like a two-team battle between the 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks have their quarterback situation cleared up, but do not have the overall team depth of the 49ers. The Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals have long odds to win the NFC West this year.

Let’s jump into our 2023 NFC West betting preview as we examine the latest NFC West odds from the best NFL betting sites and make our predictions on how this division will shake out.

Over/Under Odds and Exact Wins For NFC West Teams

The following NFC West odds and prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

San Francisco 49ers 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 11 Wins+105
Under 11 Wins-135

Brock Purdy or Trey Lance? That is the question the 49ers are asking themselves through training camp and the preseason. The 49ers drafted Lance with the No. 3 overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft.

Lance sat on the bench behind Jimmy Garoppolo in his rookie season and then suffered a season-ending ankle injury in the early stages of the 2022 campaign. After receiving some praise to open camp, Lance has reportedly been struggling to take hold of the starting job1.

Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant of the 2022 NFL Draft, asserted himself as the starter for the 49ers last season. He passed for 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 67.1 percent completions2. Purdy has no intentions of being a placeholder quarterback, as he looks like the QB1 in Week 1 for the 49ers.

Purdy dealt with an elbow injury in the playoffs that left him useless in the NFC Championship against the Philadelphia Eagles. Without a quarterback, the Eagles cruised past the 49ers for a 31-7 win.

49ers Win Total Odds and Prediction

Regardless of who starts at quarterback, the 49ers have talent on both sides of the ball. Any capable quarterback should have success playing on this roster.

Purdy is the safer choice, as he should allow an elite defense and pass rush to take games over. With a bevy of offensive talent, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk, it will be difficult for Purdy or Lance to look terribly bad.

In 2022, the 49ers had the best overall defense in the NFL. They allowed a total of 277 points and just 5,110 yards3. Lance might have a bigger upside than Purdy, but this team doesn’t need a risky quarterback at the controls.

The 49ers have -170 odds to win the NFC West at BetUS. They are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the fourth-best odds at +1000 to win the Super Bowl. The 49ers’ season win total of 11 looks accurate.

In 2023, 11 or 12 wins for the 49ers is realistic. Betting the Under at -135 odds doesn’t have the most value.

The Bet
OVER 11 WINS

49ers Exact Win Total

The 49ers have +500 odds to win 10, 11, and 12 wins. Oddsmakers are confident that they will finish around this mark. Last season, the 49ers placed first in the NFC West with a record of 13-4.

We see a similar season for the 49ers, but perhaps a small step backward. The Seahawks are getting better, but they should handle the Rams and Cardinals without many issues. Their toughest game should be in December in a rematch against the Eagles in Philadelphia.

Expect the 49ers to just barely get over their 2023 season win total. We are backing the 49ers at +500 odds to finish with 12 wins in the regular season.

The Bet
12 WINS

Seattle Seahawks 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 8.5 Wins-165
Under 8.5 Wins+135

The Seattle Seahawks could be on the move this season. After finishing 9-8 and second in the NFC West in 2022, the Seahawks might be ready to take the next step forward. It will largely be dependent on if Geno Smith takes the money and regresses or is even more motivated in 2023.

Smith signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Seahawks in the offseason. He went into training camp last season in a quarterback battle and, by the end of the season, came away with the 2022 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award and a new contract4.

It took the 39th overall selection of the 2013 NFL Draft nearly ten years to look like a second-round draft pick, but he finally came through last year. Smith passed for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, in what was easily his best season in the NFL5.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett return to provide Smith with viable targets in the passing game. The X-factor for the Seahawks could be rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Regarded as the top receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft class, the former Ohio State star has a chance to make a significant impact in Year 1.

Seahawks Win Total Odds and Prediction

If you believe that Smith can play just as well, the Seahawks will be in business this season. However, there are pundits that believe he can’t maintain this pace. In our opinion, Smith should be fine, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see some regression.

The defense should be in good hands with Jamal Adams, Julian Love, and rookie Devon Witherspoon in the secondary. If the defensive line plays better than expected and gives the secondary help, the Seattle defense will have a strong campaign.

The Seahawks are a step behind the 49ers, but they should have another fine campaign. A 9 or 10-win season appears likely.

The Bet
OVER 8.5 WINS

Seahawks Exact Win Total

Do you see the Seahawks having another 9-win campaign? It’s possible. A lot of the same pieces are in place from last season. However, the additional help with Love and Witherspoon in the secondary should provide the Seahawks with defensive improvement.

The best football betting sites give the Seahawks the second-best odds to win the NFC West. At BetUS, the Seahawks have +200 odds to win the division. The Seahawks’ Super Bowl odds are much longer at +3500.

In any event, the Seahawks should win double-digit games in 2023. Look for the Seahawks to record one more win than last season for a 10-7 campaign.

The Bet
10 WINS

Los Angeles Rams 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 6.5 Wins-105
Under 6.5 Wins-125

The LA Rams are only two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Following several roster changes, and an injury to Matthew Stafford, the Rams hit a wall last season. Stafford is expected to open the season on the field, but is he durable enough to get through a full season?

Even before arriving in Los Angeles, Stafford had been dealing with a number of ailments in Detroit. The gamble paid off, though, as Stafford led the Rams to the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium.

Stafford missed the final seven games of the 2022 season. He finished the year with 2,087 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions after 4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions a year prior6.

Rams Win Total Odds and Prediction

How long until Stafford exits this season with an injury? If this happens, the Rams will have to depend on Brett Rypien or rookie Stetson Bennett at quarterback. Baker Mayfield signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers following a short stint with the Rams in 2022.

Let’s assume that Stafford stays healthy enough to stay on the field. Is he motivated, with the same drive before winning the Super Bowl? Probably not. What if Cooper Kupp is out for an extended period of time?

If Stafford, Kupp, or Aaron Donald go down, the Rams are likely in dire straits. The Rams’ pass rush should be non-existent without Donald, while the offense needs a healthy Stafford and Kupp to move the ball consistently.

The Rams max out at 7 wins, but 5 or 6 wins is more realistic.

The Bet
UNDER 6.5 WINS

Rams Exact Win Total

In 2022, the Rams finished with a record of 5-12. If they improve on this record, it’s going to be because their key players stayed healthy. The roster doesn’t look any better than it did last season. Without much depth, the Rams are walking on thin ice this season.

The Rams are accurately booked at +900 odds to win the NFC West. It’s going to be tough for the Rams to compete with the 49ers and Seahawks. They don’t have the depth to make it through December.

Stafford and company are looking at another 5-win season. This team isn’t built to win many games.

The Bet
5 WINS

Arizona Cardinals 2023 NFL Season Predictions

BETODDS
Over 4.5 Wins-115
Under 4.5 Wins-115

The Arizona Cardinals begin a new era, as Jonathan Gannon enters his first season as head coach. The Cardinals have low expectations, but there is always a team or two that surprise the league every year. However, he next few seasons are projected to be a rebuilding phase for the Cardinals.

Arizona is coming off a 4-13 season in 2023. It wasn’t expected to go well for the Cardinals, but fans wanted to see the team win more than five games. In 2023, there are zero expectations, with three wins not out of the question.

The Cardinals could very well be in tank mode for Caleb Williams. As a team that could compete for the worst record in the NFL, it would not be a bad plan. The USC quarterback would have an opportunity to change the course of the organization in a hurry.

Cardinals Win Total Odds and Prediction

Kyler Murray is expected to start the season as the starting quarterback. However, he is coming off an ACL injury and is likely to be frustrated on this bad team. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cardinals see what fifth-round pick Clayton Tune has to offer.

Tune was selected with the 139th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He might see the field earlier than expected in his career. If it couldn’t get even worse, their No. 1 wide receiver, Marquise Brown, was recently arrested for going 126 MPH in a 65 MPH zone7.

Look for a heavy dose of James Conner out of the backfield. The Cardinals’ lukewarm defense will have to find a way to steal some games this season. Stealing more than four wins should prove to be difficult.

The Bet
UNDER 4.5 WINS

Cardinals Exact Win Total

After a 4-13 campaign in 2022, it’s highly unlikely that the Cardinals can improve on this record. They aren’t better than last season, and might actually be even worse with a new head coach introducing his system.

Gannon is implementing a new system on a team that is void of talent. Murray is the type of player that will stop listening to Gannon when it’s clear the season is going south. The rookie quarterback might be the better student for Gannon in 2023.

Winning more than three wins will not be easy for this roster. Expect a tough year in the desert for the Cardinals, as they compete for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Bet
3 WINS

2023 NFC West Divisional Winner Odds

The following NFC West odds are courtesy of BetUS:

TEAMODDS
San Francisco 49ers-170
Seattle Seahawks+200
Los Angeles Rams+900
Arizona Cardinals+2500

The 49ers are the only team in the NFC West that don’t have to depend on their quarterback so heavily. They could insert a game manager on the field and still be a good team. The same can’t be said for the Seahawks and Rams.

If Smith or Stafford are injured, the NFC West is a one-team race. At any rate, Purdy is a great fit for the 49ers. He doesn’t make many mistakes, which is exactly what the 49ers need to finish atop the NFC West and take a run at the Super Bowl.

Purdy will allow McCaffrey and Samuel to be the centerpieces of the offense while staying out of the way. The defense should put the offense in prime field position often. And if Purdy or Lance can be more than a game manager, the 49ers are valid contenders to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Expect the 49ers to pull away from the Seahawks to win the NFC West Crown in 2023.

The Bet
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

NFC West Finishing Position

ORDER49ERSSEAHAWKSRAMSCARDINALS
1-170+200+900+2500
2+225+125+300+1000
3+850+350+125+300
4+1800+850+235-275

The NFC West odds look just about right. If we were making the odds to win the NFC West, it would be similar to what the oddsmakers at BetUS have established. With that in mind, there is value to be had on these NFC West prop bets at BetUS.

If you don’t have much interest in laying -170 odds on the 49ers, there are other options with better value. In particular, the Seahawks to finish second and the Rams to finish third in the division are good bets.

You are getting +125 odds on a scenario that is entirely possible. The 49ers and Seahawks are on their own island far away from the Rams and Cardinals. The Cardinals might be on their own island in no man’s land.

The Rams are not expected to be a good team, but they are not as bad as the tanking Cardinals. We are giving the Seahawks a slightly better chance of winning the NFC West than the Rams finishing fourth. Therefore, the Rams to finish third is the better +125 wager.

Talent-wise, the Cardinals are in their own class. The Cardinals finishing last at -275 doesn’t present any value, though. Instead, the Rams to finish third at +125 is our best NFC West prop bet at BetUS.

PLACETEAMODDS
1st Place49ers-170
2nd PlaceSeahawks+125
3rd PlaceRams+125
4th PlaceCardinals-275
BetUS
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Sources

  1. 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has ‘really struggled’ at 49ers camp amid quarterback battle | New York Post. Retrieved From “https://nypost.com/2023/08/01/49ers-quarterback-trey-lance-has-really-struggled-at-camp/

  2. Brock Purdy Career Stats | NFL.com. Retrieved From “https://www.nfl.com/players/brock-purdy/stats/career

  3. 2022 NFL Opposition & Defensive Statistics | Pro Football Reference. Retrieved From “https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm

  4. Geno Smith Career Stats | NFL.com. Retrieved From “https://www.nfl.com/players/geno-smith/stats/career

  5. Matthew Stafford Career Stats | NFL.com. Retrieved From “https://www.nfl.com/players/matthew-stafford/stats/career

  6. Marquise Brown Arrest Video Shows Cop Ordering NFL Star Out of Car, Scolded Him | TMZ. Retrieved From “https://www.tmz.com/2023/08/03/marquise-brown-arrest-video-shows-cop-order-nfl-star-out-car-scolded-him/

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Kyle Eve

Role: Sports/Casino Writer

Content covered on TSG: Blog and News

Kyle is a seasoned pro of TheSportsGeek. Since the native of Windsor, Ontario, Canada, joined the team in 2011, he has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible.

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