The month of September is just two weeks away, meaning the playoff races are about to become a sprint rather than the marathon they once were. The final six weeks of the MLB regular season is sure to bring plenty of drama and excitement to baseball fans everywhere.
The two-team race between the upstart Braves and Phillies in the NL East is likely going down to the wire. The NL Central appeared to be a two-team race between the Cubs and Brewers, but the Pirates made a charge around deadline time. Now, it’s the Cardinals making the charge as they’ve rattled off eight straight wins to vault themselves to within four games of the division lead.
How about out west? The Diamondbacks, Rockies and Dodgers all sit within 1.5 games of each other in the National League while the Oakland Athletics have overcome a massive deficit to climb within two games of the stumbling and injury-riddled Astros in the American League. Meanwhile, can the Mariners overcome another James Paxton DL stint to stay relative?
The races are aplenty and the drama is Oscar-worthy. However, at the end of the day, who wins it all?
Well, there are certainly some favorites, and there are some teams that could make a charge. There are also some teams that might just come out of nowhere and catch that playoff magic and run with it.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at a favorite, a value play and a longshot value play to take home the 2018 World Series championship.
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline
*All stats as of before play on 8/16/18
The Favorite
Boston Red Sox (+400)
Any conversation around the World Series simply starts with the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox appear poised to take a good, hard run at the MLB record of 116 wins, set by the 2001 Seattle Mariners and the 1906 Chicago Cubs, with the Cubs doing it in just 152 games. As it stands, there are no holes in this Boston roster.
In fact, the Red Sox have two serious AL MVP candidates in their lineup. Mookie Betts ranks second in all of baseball with an 8.0 WAR while his .459 wOBA is the top mark in all of baseball. J.D. Martinez has blasted a league-leading 37 home runs while his 104 RBIs are easily the top mark in the bigs. When you add in the likes of Andrew Benintendi (4.3 WAR) and Xander Bogaerts (3.8 WAR), it’s tough to find a lineup in baseball that is this good from 1-5 in their lineup.
You also have to love the defense Boston throws at you. Mookie Betts is a center fielder on most clubs, but the elite defense of Jackie Bradley Jr. pushes Betts over to right field. In fact, Betts’ 8.9 UZR (ultimate zone rating) is the 8th best in baseball while Bradley’s 6.3 mark ranks him 14th. You know who is also right there too? None other than veteran trade deadline acquisition Ian Kinsler. Kinsler’s 7.7 UZR ranks 11th in baseball while his 10 defensive runs saved checks in at 15th. That addition was one of the most underrated of the trade deadline as general manager Dave Dombrowski acquired Kinsler to fill the second base spot that has been vacated by the injured Dustin Pedroia for the overwhelming majority of the season.
And then there is the pitching staff. In a playoff series, throwing out Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and David Price sounds pretty advantageous to me, even in an American League ripe with elite pitching. Add in the deadline addition of right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the injured Eduardo Rodriguez, and it’s a scary-good pitching staff in Beantown.
The Red Sox have received the league’s fifth-best ERA from their starters this season at 3.55, while their 3.67 FIP also checks in at fifth. They have also received the fifth most innings pitched from their rotation while their starters lead the league with a combined 59 wins at this point in the season.
The bullpen also isn’t too shabby. Boston’s ‘pen has produced a 3.39 ERA on the season to go along with a 3.53 FIP, good for sixth and fourth league-wide, respectively. Closer Craig Kimbrel has logged a 2.52 ERA while ranking second in the league with 36 saves. His 1.26 HR/9 clip isn’t ideal, but there are not many closers around the league you’d rather have with the ball in his hand in the ninth inning of a World Series game.
Red Sox +400
Value Play
Cleveland Indians (+800)
If you are looking for some more value than one of the favorites, slide down the list a little bit to the Cleveland Indians.
While the Red Sox have the best offense in baseball, it can certainly be argued that the Indians have the second best offense. In fact, opposing pitchers are forced to deal with two MVP-caliber bats before they even get to the third hitter in the lineup.
Francisco Lindor has busted out with a massive season so far with a .291/.372/.553 slash line to go along with 29 homers, 102 runs, 75 RBI and 19 stolen bases. He’s logged a .262 ISO and has been worth 6.6 WAR, good for the fourth most in baseball. His teammate Jose Ramirez is likely going to go head-to-head with Mookie Betts for the AL MVP award, given Mike Trout’s wrist injury that will hurt his chances. All Ramirez has done is produce a .302/.411/.634 slash line to go along with 36 homers, 84 runs, 89 RBI and 27 steals. He sports a massive .332 ISO and has been worth 8.1 WAR, the best mark in the big leagues.
If you somehow manage to get through this duo, you take on the likes of Michael Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion before getting somewhat of a break down the lineup. Another aspect of this offense that makes them a difficult group to face is the fact they are the least-strikeout prone team in the league with a K-rate of just 19.1%.
As good as the offense is, it’s pretty easy to like the pitching even more. The Indians have an elite top three in Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco to start a playoff series before Mike Clevinger and his 3.38 ERA comes next. Bauer’s Fibula injury is of grave concern at the moment, but if he returns and pitches to the Cy Young form that he has displayed to his point, this is going to be a tough team to beat in the postseason. Their 3.33 starter’s ERA is the third best in baseball, and it’s not hard to see how.
Of course, the one main area where the Indians have grossly struggled this year has been in the bullpen. For the season, the Indians’ ‘pen has logged a 4.86 ERA, good for 26th league-wide and alongside the worst teams in baseball, save for the Rockies. The good news? Over the last 30 days, the Indians’ ‘pen ranks fifth with a 3.29 ERA. Adam Cimber hasn’t produced since coming over in a trade deadline deal from the Padres, but left-hander Brad hand, the main piece in the blockbuster trade deadline deal, owns a 1.42 ERA in 11 appearances with the Tribe and is now sharing closing duties with Cody Allen.
Cleveland has received much better results from their ‘pen, and they have looked real good in winning five in a row and eight of their last 10.
Indians +800
Longshot
Arizona Diamondbacks (+2000)
If you want to roll the dice and sprinkle some cake on a longshot, I would take a good, long look at the Diamondbacks.
Of course, there is no guarantee the Diamondbacks even make the playoffs given the extremely tight NL West and NL Wild Card Race. Arizona holds a 1.5-game lead over the Rockies and Dodgers within the division, but the Phillies and Brewers own a better record as second place teams in other divisions while the Cardinals own an identical record as the third place team in the Central. Boy, the NL playoff races are going to be some kind of fun.
At the end of the day, I think the D-backs get in given their ability to hit, pitch and hold onto leads.
In terms of wOBA, the D-backs rank just 20th in the league while they rank 19th with a .701 team OPS. However, over the last 30 days, they rank ninth with a .339 wOBA and 10th with a .784 team OPS. They also rank ninth in wOBA and 8th in OPS for the season against left-handed pitching.
Obviously, the offense has struggled against righties for most of the season, but with a top four of David Peralta (.879 OPS), A.J. Pollock (.874), Paul Goldschmidt (.925) and Eduardo Escobar (.779), I think this group will manage just fine down the stretch and into the postseason.
The D-backs also have a sneaky-good rotation and an elite bullpen.
In terms of the rotation, Arizona has three arms with an ERA of 3.18 or better in Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin and the resurgent Clay Buchholz. Zack Godley has regressed this season but still owns a 3.74 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP while Robbie Ray has been real good in three of his last four starts after struggling mightily coming off the DL earlier in the year. All told, the D-backs have received a 3.88 ERA from their rotation this season, good for ninth league-wide.
And then there is the bullpen. Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano and Brad Boxberger have formed a dynamite back end of the bullpen. Throw in southpaws T.J. McFarland (1.93 ERA) and Andrew Chafin (1.74), and the D-backs have six relievers who have pitched at least 15 innings with an ERA of 3.51 or better. Add it all up, and Arizona has baseball’s second best bullpen with an ERA of just 3.14 for the season.
Their top four-to-five bats are very good, their rotation is extremely reliable and productive while their bullpen is elite.
DBacks +2000
