Major League Baseball Parlay Of The Day 6-23-21

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By Jason Gray in Baseball —
21 Min. Read

Major League Baseball Parlay Of The Day 6-23-21On Monday, we took a rare day off, as there wasn’t enough value on the board to justify making our standard parlay of the day picks. Having discipline when handicapping baseball is always important, and when the value isn’t there, you should never be afraid of taking the day off. That discipline paid immediate dividends yesterday, as we got right back to the grind, and were rewarded with a stellar 10-4 overall record, including nailing our 3-team totals parlay for a juicy $700 payout! We picked up money line winners on the Athletics (-129), Mariners (-152), Tigers (-103), Giants (+112), Astros run line (-127), Brewers (-148), and Cubs run line (-103) on what was a great day betting on Big League baseball.

The totals parlay came in when we were on the right side of the Giants/Angels under 9, Braves/Mets under 7.5, and Red Sox/Rays over 8. It is always great to start out your week with a big day, and yesterday was nearly even better, as we just missed our 3-team money line parlay that would have paid out $551, losing just our play on the Rays and our all underdog 3-teamer went 2/3 as well, missing on only the Mets and coming up just short on what would have been an $820 score. The Mets play was a backing of Marcus Stroman and was doomed when the ace pitcher injured himself in the 1st inning and was pulled from the game, and the Rays bet looked to be in great shape in extra innings with multiple runners on base and just 1 out, but a baserunning blunder cost them the game winning run. Today, we will ride our momentum from yesterday’s nice results, and get right back at it, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!

Money Line Parlay

Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.

San Francisco Giants (-112) at Los Angeles Angels

Yesterday I said that the line between the Angels and Giants might have been the single worst betting line of the year. Somehow, the best team in baseball, at least in terms of record, that is, was getting juice, against a 4th place Angel’s team playing without Mike Trout. Anthony DeSclafani was having a career year, and Andrew Heaney had an ERA north of 5 runs at home. The number made absolutely no sense, and I fired hard on the G-Men. And when San Franciso punished Heaney for 5 runs in the first 2 innings of play, I knew I was on the right side. DeSclafani toyed with the Angels last night, cruising to a 7-inning shutout, scattering just 3 base hits. Today’s line isn’t as bad as yesterday’s was, but this is still an indefensibly bad number.

After seeing DeSclafani dominate the Halos, you have to wonder what Kevin Gausman is going to be able to do, as Gausman has the 2nd best ERA in the game, trailing only the Mets Jacob deGrom. Gausman had held opposing teams to 2 earned runs or less in all but 1 of his 14 starts, and he regularly pitches into the 6th inning and later in games. On the road this season, Gausman is 5-1 with an absurd 0.99 ERA in 9 starts, and San Francisco is 10-4 when he starts games this year. I know that Shohei Ohtani is fun to watch, and the Asian sensation does something almost every day that we have never seen before, but as great as Ohtani has been, he has not been anywhere near as good as Kevin Gausman. The Angels are in 4th place in the AL West, with a losing record overall, and the fact that they are basically even money in this game against the team with the best record in baseball, with a guy like Kevin Gausman having an all-time type of season on the mound, is laughable. LA got shut out last night, don’t be shocked if it happens again tonight.

Oakland Athletics (-141) at Texas Rangers

Poor Taylor Hearn. We faded Hearn yesterday, as the guy had a career ERA of 108.00 as a starter. I felt like things couldn’t get any worse for the young hurler, but that he was an easy fade against this talented Oakland Athletics team. And I guess technically, things didn’t get worse for Hearn, but he was as awful as expected, as he lasted just .2 innings and got blasted for 4 earned runs. The A’s played add-on as well, eventually running up 13 runs on the day, and we cashed our ticket on Oakland without a sweat. It is hard to ever predict a team to score 13 runs, but the A’s could do it again today, with Mike Foltynewicz getting the start for Texas. Folty has been an embarrassment this month, with an 0-2 record and 12.71 ERA in 3 starts. The Rangers have lost 7 of his last 8 starts, and I have no clue why the Rangers aren’t bigger underdogs in this game.

Oakland starter James Kaprelian has been a pleasant surprise for the A’s, and he has thrown his name in the conversation for the AL Rookie of the Year Award, as he has been outstanding, with a 4-1 record and 2.84 ERA. I expect big things out of Kaprelian tonight, against this Rangers squad that is 13th in the AL in runs scored. I guess the fact that people don’t know James Kaprelian’s name is keeping this line tight? How else can you explain the fact that the A’s, who are tied with the Astros for the most wins in the league and have a whopping 18 game lead over the Rangers, aren’t bigger favorites? Sometimes, you will just never fully understand what the books were thinking with a line, and instead of trying to figure it out, you just say a quiet thank you, take advantage o the book’s blunder, and get paid. That is what we will do today in Arlington, give me the Rangers.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (-175)

I really wanted to talk myself into a play on the Kansas City Royals today. The Yankees are consistently overvalued despite having mediocre results, and fading them as favorites has been a profitable proposition for us this season. But when I see how the Royals are handling veteran starter Danny Duffy, I have no choice but to fade KC and pick up some free cash. Duffy has been out for over 6 weeks with an injury, and the Royals decided that he didn’t need a rehab start to shake off the rust and instead decided to throw him to the wolves at Yankee Stadium. It is basically unheard of for a team to bring a guy back after a major injury and not give him at least 1, usually 2, rehab starts in the minors to get loose.

Duffy was having a strong season prior to going down with a flexor injury, but today, I would think that KC will have him on a strict pitch count, and he likely won’t go through the lineup more than once. That means we are going to see a heavy dose of this shaky at best Royal’s bullpen, and I just don’t think they are going to be up to the task of slowing down the Bronx Bombers. I am not a fan of Yankees starter Michael King, but the kid is actually pretty good at home, with a 2.41 ERA in the Big Apple, and he is the side to be on in this one. It is more wood than I normally like to lay in a game, but the Royals are making a terrible mistake rushing Duffy back to the Big Leagues, and it is going to cost them today in the Bronx.

Money Line Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • San Francisco Giants -112
  • Oakland Athletics -141
  • New York Yankees -175

$100 Bet Pays $509

Game Total Parlay

The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles Under 10 Runs (-110)

The Baltimore Orioles had nothing for Astro’s starter, Zack Greinke, last night, and I don’t see them doing much better today against Jose Urquidy. Urquidy struggled some in April, but since then, he has been fantastic. With the exception of 1 rough outing on the road, against the hard-hitting Toronto Blue Jays, Urquidy hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in starts in his last 8 starts, and the Astros won 7 of those 8 appearances. If he is sharp, and I think he will be, there is very little risk of this game going over such a high total. This game feels like a 6-1 or 6-2 type of game, where the Astros take an early lead and coast to the victory, with the game staying well under the total.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels Under 8 Runs (-110)

We already talked about this game above, and I am shocked to see such a high total when you look at the starting pitching matchup. Gausman probably isn’t giving up a run tonight, and Ohtani is always pretty good, and his sub-3-run ERA tells me that this total is far too high. Taking the over on the Angels games has been a regular play of mine this season, but I was on the under yesterday and got paid when the Angels got shut out, and I will jump on the under again today in another game where runs are going to be hard to come by for LA.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 7.5 Runs (-110)

The Arizona Diamondbacks broke through on Monday and finally won a game after losing a whopping 17 straight games. I expected their winning streak to stop at 1 game and faded them yesterday and got paid when they couldn’t even manage a single run. Arizona ended their day with just 2 total hits, as Freddy Peralta was outstanding. It is nearly impossible to be better than Peralta was last night in the desert, but Brandon Woodruff has been better than Peralta all season long, so he just might find a way to better his rotation mate. Woodruff is coming off of his worst outing of the year, but that game came at Coors Field, so I won’t fault him too much for it. And as bad as Arizona has been this season, Caleb Smith has been one of the very few bright spots for the DBacks, as he has pitched well, and this month he has a 3.10 ERA in 4 starts, so he probably won’t give up many runs either. I’ll call this one at 3-1 Milwaukee.

Game Total Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles Under 10 Runs -110
  • San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Angels Under 8 Runs -110
  • Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 7.5 Runs -110

$100 Bet Pays $700

The Daily Dog

Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.

St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers (+105)

We picked up a nice home dog win yesterday by backing the Detroit Tigers, and we will follow that bet up today with another play on Detroit. John Gant has seen his production fall off of a cliff in the last several weeks, as his ERA has gone from 1.60 in early June to 3.50 entering play today. After allowing only 12 total earned runs through his first 10 starts, he has gotten beaten up for 15 earned runs in his last 3 outings. Interestingly enough, even when Gant was pitching his brains out, it wasn’t always equating to wins for St. Louis, and on the year, the Cardinals are just 6-7 when Gant pitches.

The Tigers will start super prospect Matt Manning, who was ranked as high as the 17th best prospect in all of baseball entering the 2020 season. Manning wasn’t pitching great in the minors this season before getting the call to the show, but he had a nice MLB debut last week, holding the hard-hitting Los Angeles Angels to just 2 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Manning, along with yesterday’s starter Tarik Skubal, and former number 1 overall draft pick Casey Mize, are the future of this Tiger’s franchise, and it’s looking like the future just might be now in Motown, as this young rotation shows a lot of promise. The Cardinals haven’t played well on the road this season, and while the Tigers certainly aren’t world beaters by any means, they are respectable at home. I’ll make my play on the Tigers as home dogs as Matt Manning is going to surprise some people, and even if he doesn’t, John Gant could come in and give the game away early.

Colorado Rockies at Seattle Mariners (-105)

Wow. That is all I can really say about this line. The Colorado Rockies are the worst road team in MLB history. Yeah, you heard me. They aren’t a bad road team, they are an all-time awful road team. Colorado is a completely embarrassing 5-28 away from home this season, and they shouldn’t ever be favored in another team’s ballpark. Ever. Let alone in this matchup, with a Seattle team that is finally getting healthy and playing great now, winning 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is 7-1 on this homestand, and they are finding ways to win games in dramatic fashion on a daily basis. Young teams like the Mariners need to start believing in themselves before they are ready to win, and if the Mariners make the postseason this year, for the first time since 2001, this homestand just might end up being the turning point for the franchise. Oh, and did I mention that Rockies starter German Marquez is 0-5 with a 5.74 ERA on the road this year? Get out of here with this line. I am not just backing the Mariners, I am hammering on them.

Boston Red Sox (+123) at Tampa Bay Rays

The Boston Red Sox spoiled the debut of Wander Franco last night, as they stole the game in extra innings. But man, did Franco impress, as the kid got on base 4 times, picked up 2 hits, including a 3-run homer and a double, and looks every bit worthy of the hype of being the best prospect in baseball. I like Boston to pee in the Rays punch again today, as Rich Hill has started to look his age again recently, and the Red Sox have the best road record in the American League this season. Hill was stupid good in the month of May, taking home the AL Pitcher of the Month Award with a 0.74 ERA, but in his last 2 starts, he has gotten lit up by the weak-hitting Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles to the tune of 8 earned runs in just 9.2 innings pitched.

Garret Richards, on the other hand, has been fanatic on the road all season long, with a 3.38 ERA. Boston loves to support Richards when he pitches, and the strong run support, coupled with the solid production from Richards, has led Boston to win 6 of his last 8 starts. I am going to be conflicted sweating this game tonight because I have a man-crush on Wander Franco and want to see him stay hot, but at the end of the day, Boston has been far too good as road underdogs to not love backing them in this game. On the year, the Red Sox are 15-5 as road dogs, which makes them by far the best road underdog team in the majors. I am backing Boston.

The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Detroit Tigers +105
  • Seattle Mariners -105
  • Boston Red Sox +123

$100 Bet Pays $893

Get Rich Or Die Trying

In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-112)

This is another game that I went back and forth on a couple of times before landing on my play on the home team Phillies. Normally, I would always look to snap fade the Nats on the road, as they have been awful away from home, with a 13-18 record. But Nats starter Erick Fedde has been pitching at a very high level this month, so I had to dig a little deeper to make sure that Philly was the side to be on. Fedde hasn’t allowed a run in his last 3 starts, a span stretching 19 innings. You hate to be on the other side of that, but when I notice that the Phillies have won each of Vince Velasquez’s last 3 home starts as well and that Philly is excellent at home, with a 21-13 record, I just couldn’t resist being able to get them at basically even money.

Houston Astros -1.5 Runs (-130) at Baltimore Orioles

We got a little bit lucky to cover this run line bet yesterday, as Houston snuck in the cover 3-1 when they scored an 8th inning run to get us paid. But in reality, that is about the best performance you could ever hope for if you are an Orioles fan when matched up with this Astros squad that has the best record in the American League. When the best possible outcome is almost covering the run line, you know you are in a bad spot, and today with Jose Urquidy primed to dominate the O’s, I will again fade Baltimore on the run line. We have been running insanely hot on run line bets this month, and it is because we pick spots where blowouts are a high probability. Lots of casual baseball bettors take the run line when they want to back the favorite and not lay as much wood, which is a terrible strategy, that leads to lots of losing. If you are going to lay that run and a half, you want to wait for spots where the team you are backing is going to run up the score. In this game, where the Astros have the highest run differential in the Major Leagues, and the Orioles have the worst run differential in the AL, this game could get ugly.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-106) at San Diego Padres

Joe Musgrove is having a strange season. The veteran starter is having the best year of his career, with an elite 2.28 ERA. But for whatever reason, San Diego just doesn’t win very often when he pitches. The Padres had lost his last 3 starts before winning in his last outing, and on the year, the Friars are just 7-7 in his 14 starts. Here is a mind-boggling stat for you, when Musgrove has allowed more than a single earned run in a game, the Padres have lost every single time. That’s right, in those 7 wins, he hasn’t allowed more than a run in any of them, and every time he isn’t unhittable, the Padres lose the game. That is an awfully tough margin of error for when you are playing the defending World Series champion, Los Angeles Dodgers. And it’s not like LA is starting some shmuck either, as they are starting the reigning Cy Young Award winner in the National League, Trevor Bauer, who has an impressive 2.45 ERA on the year. San Diego has taken the first couple of games of this series, and I see LA getting one back tonight in the series finale.

Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins (+105)

As expected, Sandy Alcantara shut down the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday. But what I didn’t see happening, that ended up costing us our bet, was that Ross Stripling would be just as good. The game was low scoring and tightly contested, and Toronto won the game with a run in the top of the 9th inning. This matchup feels a lot like yesterday’s, as Robbie Ray and Trevor Rogers are both capable of shutting teams down. Similar to Joe Musgrove for San Diego, Ray has pitched mostly great for Toronto, but the Blue Jays are just 6-7 in his 13 starts. On the road, wins have been particularly tough to come by, as the Jays are 3-5 when Ray gets the nod. Which makes it hard to understand why Toronto is favored in this game, as Trevor Rogers has been remarkably good at home for a young pitcher. Rogers is 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA in Miami. Rogers hasn’t allowed more than a single earned run at home in his last 4 starts, and I love him as a home dog today.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-121)

Our final play of the day comes to us from New York City as the Mets host the Braves. This game spoiled our 3-teamer yesterday when Marcus Stroman got hurt early, and Yennsy Diaz came into the game on no notice and got hammered. Today’s play on New York is based on a couple of strong betting trends. First, the Braves stink on the road. Atlanta has a losing record away from home and assuming they don’t get a gift like they did yesterday, they are going to lose this game. Second, the Mets are amazing at home, with an NL best 21-9 record in Queens. My last reason for liking New York? Braves starter Kyle Wright isn’t ready to be pitching in the Big Leagues.

Wright was a former first round draft pick and should be good someday, but he is only starting because Max Fried got a blister on his throwing hand and was sent to the IL. Wright has appeared in a total of 20 MLB games, and the Braves have lost 14 of them. He has a lifetime ERA of over 6 runs and isn’t quite ready for primetime. New York is starting rookie Tylor Megill, and I will do my best to ignore the fact that he has yet to pitch in the Major Leagues. Megill started his year out pitching in double-A and was quickly moved up to triple-A, and now he gets a shot in the show. In the minors this season, Megill posted a solid 3.35 ERA and a stellar 13.2 K/9 ratio, so the kid has good swing and miss stuff. I am taking New York.

Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay

  • Teams Odds
  • Philadelphia Phillies -112
  • Houston Astros -1.5 Runs -130
  • Los Angeles Dodgers -106
  • Miami Marlins +105
  • New York Mets -121

$100 Bet Pays $2,437

Wrap Up

Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!

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Jason Gray

Content covered on TSG: Blog and News

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for almost 20 years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Currently, Gray has transitioned out of gaming management to casino operations. One day, he may just own a casino. Jason has been with TheSportsGeek for over six years and loves to share his insider experiences and in-depth knowledge through his casino and sports betting content.

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