2023 NCAA Men’s Final Four Odds and Predictions

The 2023 NCAA Men’s Tournament has been quite possibly the most dramatic and exciting Big Dance we’ve ever seen. To emphasize this point further, the Elite Eight didn’t have a No. 1 seed for the first time ever¹.

Additionally, the 2023 NCAAM Final Four consists of two mid-majors and no seed ranked No. 3 or higher. And, we still have a Cinderella team hoping to make their hardwood fairytale come true.

According to the online March Madness betting sites, the UConn Huskies are the betting favorites to cut down the nets as National Champs. But, as we’ve seen already in this tournament, no favorite is safe. All betting odds are courtesy of Bovada.

NCAA Final Four Schedule and How To Watch

The NCAA Final Four consists of two games. On Saturday, April 1, both semifinal matchups will take place at NRG Stadium in Houston.

In the first game to decide who will advance to the NCAA National Championship, Florida Atlantic (No. 9) will take on San Diego State (No. 5) at 6:09 p.m. EST.

Following the mid-major showdown, Miami (No. 5) and UConn (No. 4) will tip off at 8:49 p.m. EST to determine the national title matchup.

The championship game for the NCAA Tournament is scheduled for Monday, April 3, at 9:20 p.m. EST. All three games can be watched on CBS².

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NCAA Basketball Final Four Odds and Matchups

Florida Atlantic Owls (No. 9) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (No. 5)

In one of the most unlikely Final Four matchups of all time, we have a No. 9 and No. 5 mid-major tilt at NRG Stadium.

Florida Atlantic and San Diego State have had some close calls along the way. The Owls were a missed shot away from going home in the First Round. Their NCAA Tournament opener against the Memphis Tigers was the closest they’ve come to losing.

The Owls were down 4 points at halftime, but outplayed Memphis in the second half. Off a Nicholas Boyd floater with 2.5 seconds remaining, Florida Atlantic barely advanced to the next round⁴.

Florida Atlantic had to grind out a 79-76 win to beat the Kansas State Wildcats in the Elite Eight. After allowing Kansas State to take a 7-point lead in the second half, the resilient Owls were the better team down the stretch.

It was a group effort for Florida Atlantic, as three starters got into double digits. Coming off the bench, Giancarlo Rosado led the team in scoring with 15 points⁵.

They are getting production from multiple people and taking turns being the hero. The Owls have had a balanced roster throughout the season. Teams do not have a record of 35-3 by accident.

Florida Atlantic has an offensive rating (ORtg) of 112.9 for 15th in the NCAA. They have also held up well on defense, with a defensive rating (DRtg) of 94.2 for 24th⁶. 

That being said, the Aztecs have a big edge in strength of schedule. San Diego State had a tough road in the Mountain West Conference, with a strength of schedule of 39th in the NCAA⁷.

The Aztecs are not a team that will put up 80 points consistently. They don’t have to with their physical defense. Nathan Mensah came up big once again for San Diego State in the Elite Eight.

After blocking 5 shots in the upset of the tournament against Alabama⁸, he was a disruptor in the paint against Creighton. Mensah recorded 3 blocks and contributed on the offensive end with 8 points⁹.

HISTORY FOR SAN DIEGO STATE‼️

The Aztecs are headed to the men’s Final Four for the first time ever 👏 pic.twitter.com/Iiyt1khizQ

— ESPN (@espn) March 26, 2023

FAU vs San Diego State Final Four Prediction

San Diego State was able to force Creighton into their type of game. The Bluejays wanted something a little more up-tempo, but San Diego State did not allow it to happen.

In the second half, Creighton was unable to work the ball into the inside because of Mensah. They had to depend on bad jump shots, which were not successful. Creighton shot just 11.8% from three in the losing effort Sunday¹⁰.

Without shots falling from the perimeter and Mensah tough on the interior, Creighton was unable to have the upper hand in the final minutes.

Florida Atlantic better hit their jumpers because Mensah isn’t going anywhere. He should have the most impactful presence on the floor in this contest.

This should be a low-scoring game that the Aztecs typically thrive in. A rim protector like Mensah should be the difference. Florida Atlantic does not have this interior presence defensively.

Look for San Diego State to pull it out in a close one in the Final Four opener. They should eke out a 63-58 win to reach their first-ever NCAA Men’s National Championship.

Miami Hurricanes (No. 5) vs. Connecticut Huskies (No. 4)

Miami and UConn will play for the right to challenge Florida Atlantic or San Diego State in the NCAA Men’s National Championship on Monday. By the time this one tips off, we will already know who advanced in the earlier game.

The Huskies have been the most complete team during the 2023 NCAA Tournament. There hasn’t been another team clicking as well as UConn in March.

Despite other teams cutting it close in the final seconds, UConn has avoided getting into nail-biters. The closest final score was in the Second Round against Saint Mary’s, 70-55. Otherwise, they’ve defeated their opponents by at least 20 points¹¹.

This is a Huskies team that lost the Big East Championship to Marquette by a score of 70-68. Despite the loss, UConn has won 10 of their previous 11 outings going into the Final Four¹².

They are hot at the perfect time in March, just as they did with Kemba Walker during their National Championship run in 2011. Except this UConn team is not depending on any one player.

In the Elite Eight against Gonzaga, seven Huskies scored at least 8 points¹³. They can win in a multitude of ways with their offense and defense. With a big and athletic roster, the Huskies are playing how Alabama was expected to in this tourney.

Overall, in 2022-23, the Huskies are 7th with an offensive rating of 115.1. The defense does not fall too far behind, with a rating of 94 for 21st in the nation¹⁴.

Miami has a dangerous scoring touch with their guards. The combination of Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong, and Wooga Poplar is tough to slow down. That said, this lineup gives up a lot of size to UConn.

MIAMI IS HEADED TO ITS FIRST FINAL FOUR IN PROGRAM HISTORY‼️ pic.twitter.com/T6rBr9aeHo

— ESPN (@espn) March 26, 2023

Miami vs UConn Final Four Prediction

The March Madness Final Four odds have UConn as the betting favorite to cut down the nets at NRG Stadium. From what we have witnessed, there is no arguing against these NCAA Final Four odds.

We have bet on Miami in their previous two matchups. They covered against Houston and then did it again as underdogs over Texas. However, this looks like a mismatch on the interior for the Hurricanes.

Despite a serious scoring punch from their guards, the Hurricanes lack the size required to give the Huskies issues. Miami is 8th with an offensive rating of 114.6, but 224th with a defensive rating of 103.5¹⁵.

They hung on for a win against Texas, but gave up 81 points on 50% shooting from the field. Texas shot 40% from three¹⁶. This has been a recurring problem for them on the defensive end in 2022-23.

Miami has matched up well against some teams in this tournament. UConn is unlikely to be one of them. Expect the size of Adama Sonago and Alex Karaban in the frontcourt to be the difference makers.

Odds To Win 2023 National Championship

The following 2023 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship odds are provided by Bovada:

After blowing out the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Elite Eight, the UConn Huskies are favored to win the National Championship. They emerged out of the toughest region in the NCAA Tournament.

The West Region included Kansas, Gonzaga, UCLA, and Arkansas. The last one standing was the No. 4 seed. UConn enters with confidence following double-digit wins in every assignment in the NCAA Tournament³.

The Huskies are the most logical choice to have as the betting favorite. Their performance against the Zags was the most impressive of the tourney this year.

Can UConn outdo themselves and look even better in the Final Four? The upset-minded Hurricanes hope not. Miami is coming off a double-digit comeback to defeat the Longhorns as underdogs, 88-81.

According to the March Madness Final Four odds at the leading online sportsbook, Bovada, Florida Atlantic has the longest odds of winning the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

The No. 9 seed out of the East Regional is the winningest team in the Final Four. Despite (+600) odds to win the National Championship, Florida Atlantic has lost just three games all season. The Owls have a big challenge in a mid-major showdown against San Diego State.

2023 NCAA Tournament Championship Prediction

The college basketball betting sites have this one right. UConn has the most depth and talent left in the tournament. While a team like San Diego State has to rely on their defense and Miami with their offense, the Huskies can win either type of game.

UConn will be tough to beat at NRG Stadium with this well-rounded roster. Consider backing the Huskies to win the national title on Monday, April 3.