2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds and Predictions

On Sunday, September 3, the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs get underway at Darlington Raceway in South Carolina. The top 16 drivers from the regular season will compete for points on the road to the Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway in November. You can find the latest 2023 NASCAR Championship odds at the best online betting sites.

The NASCAR Cup Playoffs consist of four different rounds. The Round of 16 includes three races from September 3 to September 16. Following the Round of 16, there are three races for the Round of 12. On Sunday, October 15, the Round of 8 will open with the first of three races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Lastly, on November 5, the Championship 4 will be held at Phoenix Raceway. Only four drivers will remain in the chase for the NASCAR Cup Series title in the final race of the season. In total, there are 10 Cup Series Playoff races from September 3 to November 5¹.

Previous NASCAR Cup Series Champions

• 2022—Joey Logano
• 2021—Kyle Larson
• 2020—Chase Elliott
• 2019—Kyle Busch
• 2018—Joey Logano
• 2017—Martin Truex, Jr.
• 2016—Jimmie Johnson

There is one familiar name that you won’t be able to find in the 2023 NASCAR Championship odds at NASCAR betting sites. And, no, we don’t mean retired Cup Series driver Jimmie Johnson.

Chase Elliott will not be participating in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. The No. 9 car had seven fewer starts because Elliott took more than a month after a snowboarding accident resulted in a fractured tibia².

Elliott tried desperately to pick up a win for an automatic berth to the playoffs. He came close in the final regular season race of the season, but settled for fourth at Daytona on Saturday night. If Elliott raced all 26 races, he would have made the Playoffs relatively easy.

2023 NASCAR Championship Odds

The following NASCAR Championship betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Chase Elliott was the betting favorite to win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship before the first race of the season. Elliott was +575 to win the Cup Series title. Kyle Larson had the second-best odds to win the NASCAR Championship at +600.

For added perspective… Martin Truex Jr. won the regular season championship after missing the playoffs last year.

Chase Elliott missed the playoffs after winning the regular season championship last year. pic.twitter.com/eRGn9j28cb

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) August 27, 2023

The biggest mover up the 2023 NASCAR Championship odds board was Chris Buescher. The 30-year-old driver for RFK Racing is the hottest driver in NASCAR entering the Round of 16.

In early February, he was +10000 to win the championship. Now, Buescher is in the playoffs and +1600 to win it all. Additionally, William Byron exceeded his original projections, as he has moved to +600 from +1200 and finished with 2036 regular season points.

Get Exclusive Access to Winning Sports Betting Picks for Free

NASCAR Championship Betting Favorites

Toyota Racing Development and Joe Gibbs Racing must be thrilled going into the playoffs. According to Bovada’s NASCAR Championship odds, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin, both Camry drivers, have the best odds to win the NASCAR playoffs.

Let’s jump into our assessment of the betting favorites, and then reveal our NASCAR Championship predictions and best bets.

Martin Truex Jr. (+400)

• 2023 Car: #19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota Camry TRD
• Crew Chief: James Small
• 2023 Ranking: 2nd Place
• 2023 Wins: 3
• 2023 Top 5’s: 9
• 2023 Top 10’s: 15
• 2023 Poles: 1
• 2023 Laps Led: 832

Joe Gibbs Racing’s No. 19 car has been one of the most consistent on the Cup Series grid this year. There have been times when Truex Jr. has flat-out dominated races. In the regular season, he leads the Cup Series in Top 10 finishes with 15. Truex Jr.’s effort resulted in the regular season title.

Additionally, Truex Jr. finished second with 832 laps led this season³. He and James Small have worked well together, and it could result in a Cup Series Championship for the two of them. However, has Truex Jr. peaked too early before the Playoffs?

Martin Truex Jr finished P24 tonight at Daytona.

He was also presented with the regular season championship trophy post race! @DucksUnlimited pic.twitter.com/twvvaHuztI

— Joe Gibbs Racing (@JoeGibbsRacing) August 27, 2023

If Truex Jr. has the right car, and he’s in a rhythm, there is no doubt that he can roll to a championship. Truex Jr. isn’t coming off a model performance. In fact, it was one of his worst finishes of the year.

Truex Jr. finished 24^th, for his first performance outside the Top 20 since July 9. Prior to this past weekend, Truex Jr. crossed the finish line in the Top 10 in six straight races⁴. Overall, he is first in the Cup Series with an average finishing position of 11.4.

The 43-year-old NASCAR veteran most recently won on July 16 at New Hampshire. By his standards this season, Truex Jr. is likely due for a win soon. If you want to play it safe with a driver who is likely going to be consistent in the playoffs, the regular-season championship is a solid bet.

Denny Hamlin (+550)

• 2023 Car: #19 Joe Gibbs Racing/23XI Racing Toyota Camry TRD
• Crew Chief: Chris Gabehart
• 2023 Ranking: 3rd Place
• 2023 Wins: 2
• 2023 Top 5’s: 9
• 2023 Top 10’s: 12
• 2023 Poles: 4
• 2023 Laps Led: 389

Can Michael Jordan add NASCAR champion to his long list of accolades? Jordan and Denny Hamlin are co-owners of 23XI Racing. Currently, the race team has a partnership with Joe Gibbs Racing on the No. 11 car.

If it happens, Hamlin will have to be a different driver in the Playoffs than he has been in the past. We’ve seen Hamlin have success in the regular season. However, he has had a tendency to fade come playoff time.

Hamlin has had a fast car to work with this season. He leads the Cup Series in 2023 with four pole positions. There are truly no excuses for Hamlin this year.

Hamlin’s team has worked wonders on his car to get it prepared for races. With a wager on Hamlin, you can feel confident that he will take chances to get to the front.

Reaction to what happened between Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson at Pocono from Aric Almirola and Daniel Suárez. #NASCAR #RaceHub pic.twitter.com/zRUH2go6iM

— FOX: NASCAR (@NASCARONFOX) July 26, 2023

He will not play it safe and be conservative in the Playoffs. It can be a blessing and a curse at times. When Hamlin ran Larson into the wall to take over the lead at Pocono last month, it was an aggressive move that worked out well for him.

Hamlin has four Top 5 performances in his previous six events. Similar to Truex Jr., he isn’t coming off a sharp performance though. Hamlin finished 26^th in an effort that he’d like to forget about as the Playoffs approach.

Best NASCAR Championship Value Bet: William Byron (+600)

• 2023 Car: #24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro
• Crew Chief: Rudy Fugle
• 2023 Ranking: 1st Place
• 2023 Wins: 5
• 2023 Top 5’s: 5
• 2023 Top 10’s: 13
• 2023 Poles: 3
• 2023 Laps Led: 877

William Byron does not have the pedigree or career resume of some other drivers in the Playoffs. That being said, Byron is only a 25-year-old and on the edge of breaking out to be a household name in motorsports.

Byron is going into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs as the No. 1 seed after notching 28 playoff points. The Hendrick Motorsports young gun, running in the historic No. 24 car, finished in a tie with Truex Jr. for the most points at 2,036.

The last time the No. 24 car won at @WGI was 2001, the same year @JeffGordonWeb went on to win the championship.

Will history repeat itself with @WilliamByron? pic.twitter.com/h6xZuDEhYz

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) August 21, 2023

The Charlotte native grabbed the most wins with five in the regular season. In fact, there wasn’t another driver to win at least four races this season in NASCAR⁵.

Two weeks ago, Byron bounced back after a rough stretch on the track. He won at Watkins Glen, and then had a fairly strong showing at Daytona, where he finished eighth to wrap up the regular season. The road-course win was his first victory since Atlanta on July 9⁶.

Hendrick has to like the progress that they’ve seen out of their young driver. If Byron gets the job done, he will be one of the youngest drivers to win a NASCAR Championship. In 2020, Elliott was the third-youngest driver to win a championship at 24 years of age⁷.

Byron’s NASCAR Championship odds hold an abundance of value. Given his success this year, the fact that he has the third-best NASCAR Playoff odds is a steal at +600.

Best NASCAR Championship Longshot Bet: Chris Buescher (+1600)

• 2023 Car: #17 RFK Racing Ford Mustang
• Crew Chief: Scott Graves
• 2023 Ranking: 4th Place
• 2023 Wins: 3
• 2023 Top 5’s: 6
• 2023 Top 10’s: 12
• 2023 Poles: 0
• 2023 Laps Led: 231

The hottest driver in NASCAR isn’t Larson, Truex Jr., or Hamlin. That honor belongs to Chris Buescher, who has come out of nowhere over the last month. Buescher has been on an incredible tear, with three wins in his previous five starts.

Buescher wanted to show it wasn’t a fluke, so he parked his Ford Mustang in Victory Lane this past weekend at Daytona. He only needed to lead two laps in the race to win on Saturday night.

A push from @keselowski, and @Chris_Buescher was well on his way. 🏁 pic.twitter.com/6rs4p0GceD

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) August 27, 2023

In Buescher’s previous five starts, he has finished first, seventh, 11^th, first, and first⁸. So, even in the races that Buescher didn’t win, the 30-year-old RFK Racing driver was running in great shape.

Believe it or not, but Buescher is second in the Cup Series with an average finishing position of 12.231⁹. This doesn’t look like a driver who should have +1600 odds to win the NASCAR Championship.

Buescher should probably be in the +900 range to win the Cup Series title in 2023. He isn’t accustomed to being in the spotlight in September. That is the one negative on Buescher, but you can’t deny the confidence and fast car he is bringing to the Round of 16.

With +1600 odds to win the NASCAR Cup Series title, Buescher has to be on your shortlist.

2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Prediction

From July 16 to August 13, Byron had the worst stretch of the season. He didn’t finish in the Top 10 over five starts. However, the driver of the No. 24 Hendrick car was red-hot leading up to that downfall.

Byron had eight finishes in the Top 10 from April 23 to July 9. That included two wins and five Top 5 performances across 11 outings. He was due to go through a period of regression. With that lackluster stretch out of the way, Byron should be well prepared for the Playoffs.

He was able to regain his championship form down the stretch in the final two races of the season. Byron won at Watkins Glen and ended the season with an eighth-place finish at Daytona on Saturday.

In 26 events this season, no driver has won more races than Byron. Additionally, Byron’s eight stage wins are the most in the Cup Series. Only Truex Jr., the regular-season champion, managed to finish with as many points as Byron.

The No. 24 car is being overlooked going into the Playoffs. Look at considering using Byron as the centerpiece of your NASCAR betting strategy for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.