2023-24 AFC West Division Betting Preview and Predictions

The AFC West has a chance to be the most competitive division in football. Depending on how well head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson work together in their year together in Denver, there won’t be many easy wins in the AFC West for the upcoming 2023-24 season.

The Kansas City Chiefs enter the year looking to win the AFC West title for the eighth consecutive season. Since the 2016-17 campaign, the Chiefs have finished at the top of the standings in the AFC West. The Denver Broncos are the last team to finish ahead of the Chiefs in the division.

The Las Vegas Raiders appear like the weak link of the AFC West. There are more question marks in Las Vegas than any other team in the division.

Let’s dive into the 2023-24 AFC West odds, courtesy of the best NFL betting sites, and make our predictions for this competitive division.

Over/Under Odds and Exact Wins For AFC West Teams

The following AFC West odds and prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Kansas City Chiefs 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The Chiefs are on the heels of yet another successful season. Despite losing wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, the offense stepped up while the defense showed considerable improvement.

Following a 14-3 regular season, the Chiefs advanced to Super Bowl LVII and beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-35. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs captured their second Super Bowl in their third trip to the big game in four years.

Hill’s departure from the team just forced Mahomes to share the ball more with his other targets. Mahomes set a career-high with 5,250 passing yards. He threw 41 touchdowns and 12 interceptions on 67.1 percent passing¹.

When Mahomes needed a first down, he found tight end Travis Kelce, who always seemed to find a soft spot in the defense. Kelce had a career-high 110 receptions, with 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns².

Overall, the Chiefs’ offense led the league with 413.6 yards per game in the regular season³. This season, wideout Marquez Valdes-Scantling figures to take on a more prominent role with JuJu Smith-Schuster in New England. He’s the only receiver on the roster with more than 600 yards receiving in 2022.

He’s just kidding… unless? 😳@PatrickMahomes pic.twitter.com/qu5UoMs4JA

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) August 5, 2023

Chiefs Win Total Odds and Prediction

Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are receivers that will be asked to have their best seasons in the NFL. As a rookie out of Western Michigan in 2022, Moore was in the background of an exceptional offense. However, the slot receiver will undoubtedly see more looks in 2023.

Moore will be a sneaky option for prop bets early in the season before the markets catch up. A bigger concern than Moore has to be Toney. The former first-round pick of the New York Giants has already been with two teams in two years.

He was expected to play a bigger role last season. However, Toney didn’t see the field, and when he did, Mahomes didn’t look his way often. Now, Toney is behind in training camp after undergoing minor knee surgery on the first day of practice⁴.

It isn’t the only notable player the Chiefs could be without to open the season. Former 49er defensive lineman Charles Omenihu will be forced to miss six games after violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy⁵.

Defensive tackle Chris Jones has not appeared at training camp as he holds out for more money. Expect Jones and the Chiefs to come to a resolution before Week 1. However, it hasn’t been the smoothest camp for the Chiefs. Safety Nazeeh Johnson also went on IR after tearing his ACL in camp.

The Chiefs are the obvious team to beat in the AFC West. As long as Mahomes and Kelce are healthy, they’re in fine shape. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Chiefs take a step back after winning the Super Bowl.

They have a tough schedule, including a much-improved Lions team, Jets, Bengals, Eagles, and Dolphins. Less than 12 wins in the regular season isn’t out of the question for the Chiefs in 2023, especially with the AFC East Buffalo Bills and AFC North Cincinnati Bengals coming for the AFC crown.

Chiefs Exact Win Total

For the 2023-24 season, the Chiefs are favored to win 12 games at +475 odds. That would be two fewer wins than their Super Bowl campaign in 2022-23. A 12-5 season is plausible for the Chiefs.

They will likely be involved in some close games in a tough schedule. Not all of them are going to go in their direction. Despite the Chiefs not expected to be as strong, they have the best odds to win Super Bowl 58 at +600.

Mahomes and Kelce will get this team to double-digit wins by themselves. It just may not look as pretty as last season. An 11-win season at +500 is worth considering at football betting sites.

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 NFL Season Predictions

The LA Chargers have the second-best odds to win the AFC West. Following the Chiefs at -170, the Chargers are +300 to win the division. Last year, the Chargers finished second in the AFC West at 10-7.

It was an up-and-down season for Los Angeles, which ended with a 31-30 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round. The Chargers got out to a quick start in the opening quarter. They went into the second quarter with a 17-0 lead and 27-7 at halftime.

In typical Chargers fashion, they didn’t know how to close out a playoff game and went home early. They did the same during the Philip Rivers era.

Is this going to be a case of another talented quarterback going to waste on the Chargers? The Chargers are blessed to go from one franchise QB to the next so quickly. However, it means little without a trip to the Super Bowl.

In three seasons, Justin Herbert has passed for 14,089 yards, 94 touchdowns, and 35 interceptions. He owns an above-average completion percentage of 66.9⁶. Herbert will have receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and running back Austin Ekeler back in the offense.

The addition of rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston should make this a more dynamic offense. Johnston is expected to take pressure off Allen and Willians in the passing game. Herbert can’t complain about the first-round pick that the Chargers made at the 2023 NFL Draft.

Every Justin Herbert touchdown in 2022 ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/SVmDqQxdLC

— NFL (@NFL) July 26, 2023

Chargers Win Total Odds and Prediction

The biggest issue potentially plaguing the Chargers’ pursuit of the Super Bowl is their defense. Rush linebacker Joey Bosa is back on the defense for the Chargers, but questionable depth in the pass rush could be a concern.

In any event, the secondary should be in good hands and the linebacker core will make plays often this season. As long as the defense isn’t awful, the Chargers will still win plenty of games due to Herbert and the offensive fireworks.

The Chargers are going to be a fun team to watch. This should be one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. Does it equate to a spot in Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII? Probably not. But the Chargers are at least a 10-win team in 2023.

Chargers Exact Win Total

How do the Chargers follow up a 10-7 season? It could be more of the same for this team.

This is a talented roster, and with the addition of Johnston, should put up points. Replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator should be an upgrade. Moore and Herbert are sure to have a positive working relationship.

The defense can’t afford many injuries, though. If Bosa goes down, the secondary will be under fire often. There isn’t ample depth on the Chargers to get away with a defense ravished by injuries. Not with a tough schedule in the AFC West.

All things considered, the Chargers shouldn’t be too much better or worse than the 2022 NFL campaign. With that in mind, we have no reason to predict anything worse than 10 wins.

Denver Broncos 2023 NFL Season Predictions

Last season, Russell Wilson arrived in Denver to great fanfare. He was expected to fix all of the quarterback woes that the Broncos have experienced since Peyton Manning retired. It has been an ugly carousel of quarterbacks that have come and gone through Denver.

Wilson had one of the most bizarre seasons in the NFL. He looked utterly disinterested and confused for most of the season. The 12-year veteran passed for 3,524 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 60.5 percent completions⁷.

The Broncos finished the regular season with a record of 5-12 after failing to meet expectations. It wasn’t all Wilson’s fault, but when you’re the quarterback making $245 million, the blame is going to fall on your shoulders.

He has to be better, as does the rest of the roster. Hiring a hard-nosed and successful coach like Sean Payton might be what the Broncos need to turn things around. There wasn’t any sense of leadership under Nathaniel Hackett last year.

Payton’s presence likely changes the culture in Denver immediately. If he can get this team thinking and playing on the same page, the Broncos should win well more than five games. However, Wilson will set this franchise back several years if he doesn’t figure it out.

He has two talented wide receivers at his disposal that should only get better in 2023. Jerry Jeudy is coming off a career season. The 24-year-old former Alabama star caught 67 receptions, 972 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns in his third-year⁸.

The Broncos were dead last in the NFL in scoring per game. In 2022, they averaged an anemic 16.9 points per game⁹. There were too many drives that would stall out after a promising start. Wilson’s ability to put the Broncos in the end zone was not up to par.

Russell Wilson, “Last year is Last Year…” 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZPMF4qTzlI

— DNVR Broncos (@DNVR_Broncos) July 28, 2023

Broncos Win Total Odds and Prediction

The locker room should be in better order with Payton as the boss. However, if the Broncos are going to be in contention for the playoffs, Wilson has to play considerably better. For a guy that looked like he didn’t care last year, it’s hard to see him flipping a switch and motivated to learn a new system.

According to reports out of training camp, the offense hasn’t been in top form. Last week, Wilson went through an entire red-zone drill without throwing a touchdown pass. Payton doesn’t seem too concerned, but he did note that Wilson and the offense are still learning a new system¹⁰.

To his credit, Wilson is in much better shape physically after losing some weight. He is moving around well. That being said, do you have faith in Wilson learning this offense and doing a 180 from last season?

Perhaps if the Broncos had an elite defense, we would feel more optimistic. The defensive unit should be above average, though this isn’t a Top 5 unit. Losing Dre’Mont Jones on the edge is likely to hurt.

Many people believe that Payton can turn the Broncos’ fortunes around immediately. It is not a given, though. We don’t foresee the Broncos getting to ten games or even flirting with a ten-win season.

Broncos Exact Win Total

The Broncos have it tough in the AFC West. Of course, the Chiefs are going to be tough, while the Chargers are expected to be competitive again in 2023.

Denver’s AFC West odds are a little off at +550. Before betting on the Broncos, search for odds to win the AFC West at roughly +700 or higher. At +4000, the Broncos are a longshot team to win the Super Bowl this year.

Besides the Chiefs and Chargers, the Broncos play the Lions, Jets, Dolphins, Bills, and Browns. Going on the road to Chicago in Week 4 could present some issues as well.

We are predicting another disappointing season in Denver, but two more wins are an improvement over last year’s debacle.

Las Vegas Raiders 2023 NFL Season Predictions

For the first time since 2013, the Raiders will have a different starting quarterback. With the franchise not wanting to pay Derek Carr, they released him in February after the team couldn’t work out a trade.

The Raiders have turned to Jimmy Garoppolo as their next starting quarterback. It might not be for long, though. Garoppolo is coming off an ankle injury and there are questions of whether he can get through the season.

There were stipulations written into Garoppolo’s contract due to his injury suffered last season with the 49ers. According to Addendum G, he was not owed any money before passing a physical. He did pass the training camp physical, but reports out of camp haven’t been positive.

The offense has reportedly looked out of sorts with no rhythm or chemistry. On Saturday, Garoppolo threw three interceptions and it wasn’t the first time in training camp. There were also dropped interceptions that could have resulted in more picks¹¹.

Wide receiver Davante Adams is still with the Raiders, but the cupboard is empty otherwise. Star tight end Darren Waller was traded to the New York Giants to free up cap space, leaving a huge void in the passing game. Michael Mayer has the potential to develop into a star, but isn’t duplicating Waller’s success in his rookie season.

Optimistic Raiders fans may not talk about Jimmy G’s struggles and point to how well the defense played. However, there isn’t anything special about this defense. The secondary will get torched for big yardage.

Raiders’ QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who spent his off-season recovering from a foot injury, did in fact pass his training camp physical and is expected to begin training camp with his teammates, per league source. Raiders are not placing him on the Physically Unable to Perform list.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 23, 2023

Raiders Win Total Odds and Prediction

There are no redeeming features for the Raiders. Adams is stuck in football purgatory on one of the worst teams in the NFL. The best strategy for the Raiders would be to tank for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.

The Raiders will have stiff competition against teams like the Arizona Cardinals of the NFC West. But the Raiders should be in the mix for the worst record in the NFL in December. Garoppolo is a solid tank commander for the Raiders this season.

If Garoppolo is injured, and we are confident that his ankle will flare up, the Raiders have to choose between Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell. In other words, the Raiders will go from bad to horrible in one play.

On top of their lack of talent issues, their schedule is not going to be a breeze. Seven wins are likely well out of reach for the Raiders.

Raiders Exact Win Total

In Josh McDaniels’ first season at the helm, the Raiders finished with a record of 6-11. The roster didn’t improve, and you could argue they’ve downgraded. Now, their schedule gets tougher in 2023.

Defenses should be able to commit to stopping the run game, with or without star running back Josh Jacobs, and force Garoppolo to beat them. The running game will be asked to do much for the Raiders. And with the secondary likely getting beat up, the Raiders will have to abandon the run in the second half of games.

Will Jacobs even be on the roster? There is a chance that the Raiders rescind his franchise tag and make him a free agent before the start of the regular season¹². The odds probably point to Jacobs staying put, but it’s worth noting that the Raiders are considering cutting Jacobs loose.

The Raiders at +1100 to win three wins is one of the best value bets in the 2023-24 AFC West odds. They can win four games, but +1100 odds is a gift on the Raiders to finish at 3-14 in 2023.

2023 AFC West Divisional Winner Odds

The following AFC West odds are courtesy of BetUS:

The Chiefs may not match their production from last season with 14 wins. Nevertheless, this is still the team to beat in the division. The AFC West odds are accurate with the Chiefs as the betting favorite.

If the Broncos are going to get in contention, they need Russell Wilson to play like the 2019 or 2020 version. He has some weapons to work with, but it’s asking a lot of Russ to bounce back so well from last year’s disaster.

As far as the Chargers are concerned, they should score plenty of points. However, the defense is still too leaky for us to recommend betting on the Chargers for your NFL betting strategy in the AFC West.

The Raiders? As we stressed earlier, the Raiders have a better shot at the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Chiefs should win the AFC West for the eighth straight season.

AFC West Finishing Position

BetUS’s AFC West odds give the Chiefs a sizable advantage. The Raiders have the longest odds to win the AFC West at +1400.

At -170, the Chiefs are expected to win the division. Following the Chiefs, the Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders should fall in line.

There shouldn’t be too many surprises, with the Broncos a possible surprise. That being said, the offense has to be exceptionally better in a new offensive scheme to finish second.

The best value picks for this AFC West prop bet are the Chargers to finish second at +175 and the Broncos to finish third at +200. Las Vegas should be well behind the rest of the division, so the Raiders in fourth place at -150 isn’t a bad option either.

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