2023-24 NFL Conference Championship Odds and Predictions

On February 11, 2024, the Super Bowl will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada for the first time. Before heading to Allegiant Stadium, the conference championship games are scheduled to determine the Super Bowl 58 matchup. We are evaluating the latest NFL conference championship odds and locking in our best bets at NFL betting sites.

AFC Championship Odds

The following AFC Championship Game odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The AFC playoff odds favor the Chiefs repeating and going back to the Super Bowl. Currently, the Chiefs are +375 to win the AFC Championship, according to the best football betting sites.

The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals follow behind the Chiefs with the second-best AFC odds at +550.

AFC Championship Betting Favorites

According to the AFC playoff odds at online betting sites, three teams are above the rest:

Kansas City Chiefs (+375)

For our AFC West betting preview, we have the Chiefs winning the division title for the eighth straight season. However, the Chiefs may regress from their 2022 season record of 14-3.

Naturally, as long as Patrick Mahomes is a healthy quarterback, the Chiefs are always going to have a chance. He does things that no other quarterback is able to do in the NFL. Mahomes is the best player in the league and he’s great at making players around him better.

In 2023-24, the Chiefs are banking on Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore to step up. The Chiefs know what they have in Marquez-Valdes Scantling. If Toney and Moore elevate their games, the loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster won’t mean as much.

This Patrick Mahomes throw to Travis Kelce is poetry in motion. 😲pic.twitter.com/BsbTm5OUwV

— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) August 23, 2023

The offense is predicated on Travis Kelce and Mahomes being healthy. If he’s active, the field opens up for everyone else. The offensive line should be in good form with the addition of tackle Donovan Smith. Orlando Brown Jr. is out, but Smith is a worthy replacement.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chiefs are waiting on Chris Jones to report to the team. However, Jones wants a contract similar to Aaron Donald’s and is willing to hold out until Week 8. He is seeking roughly $30 million per year after finishing with 15.5 sacks last season¹.

Defensive question marks are the biggest concern for the Chiefs, but Mahomes will keep this team a favorite in the conference.

Buffalo Bills (+550)

Following a 13-3 regular season, the Bills suffered a playoff loss to the Bengals in disappointing fashion, 27-10. The Bengals impressively held Josh Allen and the offense in check. Allen passed for 264 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in the loss.

The Bills were not in the best shape for that game, with injuries finally catching up to them in the Playoffs. They dealt with a rash of injuries, notably to their secondary last season. Even though the Bills were short-handed in the secondary, they still won 13 games.

Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things 😳
pic.twitter.com/XOtTJJMtxO

— PFF (@PFF) August 26, 2023

The injury list was extensive for the Bills for some weeks. First-team members of the secondary, Tre’Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer all missed significant time in 2022. With all three cleared to play in Week 1, the defense should experience a significant boost.

The middle linebacker position is of concern for the Bills after Tremaine Edmunds left for Chicago. Tyrel Dodson is No. 1 on the depth chart, but he is in the midst of a position battle during the preseason. If defensive tackle Ed Oliver can break out in 2023-24, this group will receive a big lift.

In addition to defensive injuries, Allen was dealing with a nagging elbow injury. In any event, the offense was second in the league, with 297.8 yards and 28.4 points scored per game².

Cincinnati Bengals (+550)

Last season, the AFC Championship Game odds favored the Chiefs by 1.5 points over the Bengals. In a close contest, Kansas City edged the Bengals out by a field goal for a 23-20 win.

Joe Burrow will have his regular cast of receivers to target. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd form one of the best receiver rooms in the NFL.

With Joe Mixon out of the backfield, there is no reason why the Bengals shouldn’t put up big numbers again. The offensive line should get stronger with Orlando Brown Jr. up front at left tackle.

The countdown begins. pic.twitter.com/ldmteipIu1

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) August 27, 2023

In the 2022 season, Burrow passed for a career-high 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. For the second straight year, he completed more than 68 percent of his passes³. Look for a similar year from Burrow with the Bengals.

With the additions of Dax Hill and Nick Scott, the defense has the potential to be a Top 10 unit. The Bengals have a decent enough chance to have a Top 5 defense and offense in the NFL this season.

Best AFC Championship Value Bet: Miami Dolphins (+800)

The Dolphins are loaded with playmakers all over the field. In Tua Tagovailoa’s fourth season in the NFL, the Dolphins want to see him take this team to the next level. If Tagovailoa stays healthy and avoids concussions, there is no denying that the Dolphins can have a Top 5 offense.

Hill returns and hopes to have a big season alongside Jaylen Waddle. Waddle suffered an injury to his midsection a few weeks ago, but the Dolphins have downplayed its seriousness. When everyone is healthy, it will be tough for any defense to stop this speedy duo.

Tyreek Hill’s speed is UNFAIR 🐆
pic.twitter.com/NbNTsaQtVB

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) August 26, 2023

The Dolphins’ offensive line leaves fans wanting more. Fortunately, Tagovailoa has the talent to move in the pocket and escape if needed. The Dolphins signed former New England Patriots offensive lineman Isaiah Wynn to provide depth behind Tarron Armstead.

Meanwhile, the defense is expected to be one of the most underrated groups in the NFL. It would have been nice if the Dolphins had Jalen Ramsey for a full season, but he should be ready for late November or early December.

Vic Fangio’s defense should be in good shape with Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou. Drafting Western Carolina cornerback Cam Smith only helps the outlook for the Dolphins’ secondary.

If the offensive line exceeds expectations, the Dolphins will be one of the best in the conference. With AFC playoff odds of +800 to win the conference title, consider a value bet on Miami.

Best AFC Championship Longshot Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers (+3500)

There are several up-and-coming quarterbacks in the NFL. The Steelers’ Kenny Pickett could be a solid breakout candidate in the 2023-24 campaign.

In his second season, and first as the full-time starter, Pickett is expected to take a big step forward. As a rookie, the 25-year-old passed for 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns, and nine interceptions⁴.

All indications out of training camp are that Pickett is on track to take off. In preseason games, Pickett was outstanding and received an “A+” rating from our point of view after the Steelers went 3-0.

Visual proof of just how excellent #Steelers QB Kenny Pickett was during the preseason

– 1st in yards per attempt
– 1st in 1st down percentage
– a PERFECT 158.3 passer rating
– 2nd in completion percentage
– 0 turnovers and multiple touchdowns

He certainly looks the part. pic.twitter.com/IOeDuXuU3s

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) August 26, 2023

He and George Pickens are poised to be a force in the AFC North division. Also, the addition of wide receiver Allen Robinson gives this team a strong passing attack. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in the backfield gives this offense plenty of balance.

The Steelers will not have the best defense in the NFL. However, they have a chance to rank in the top half of the league with a healthy T.J. Watt.

On both sides of the ball, the Steelers should have some form of success and surprise at times throughout the year. At +3500 odds to win the AFC, this looks like a good bargain bet.

AFC Championship Prediction: Buffalo Bills (+550)

We keep going back to the fact that the Bills finished 13-3 last season in spite of a carousel of defenders. Most teams wouldn’t have made out so well if they had to endure this many injuries.

Additionally, Allen was playing with a sprained UCL in his elbow. Despite suffering the injury in November, the Pro Bowl quarterback stayed on the field through the Playoffs. He has his main targets back, and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid should contribute immediately.

When they have a healthy secondary, the Bills are as dangerous as any team in the AFC. You have to suspect that the Bills are feeling some disrespect after the public jumped off the bandwagon following their loss in the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs.

Just when you start overlooking the Bills, they rise up to overtake the AFC in 2023-24.

NFC Championship Odds

The following NFC Championship Game odds are courtesy of Bovada:

According to odds at Super Bowl betting sites, the Chiefs and Eagles are projected to meet in Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58. The Eagles have the best odds to win the NFC at +300.

However, are we expecting the Eagles to regress after such a memorable season? The San Francisco 49ers and even the Dallas Cowboys could be prepared to leapfrog the Eagles in the NFC odds as the season progresses.

NFC Championship Betting Favorites

The Eagles and 49ers are considered the betting favorites to win the NFC Championship.

Philadelphia Eagles (+300)

The Eagles will not be able to take teams by surprise this season. Every opponent they face is well aware of the type of team they are dealing with now. Defensive coordinators are throwing everything they have at quarterback Jalen Hurts.

After a standout campaign, which saw Hurts pass for 3,701 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions, he’s going to have a bullseye on his back. Additionally, Hurts gained 760 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns⁵.

Jalen Hurts has a master plan to bring Philadelphia another Lombardi Trophy

The Eagles quarterback stars on the cover of SI’s 2023 NFL preview: https://t.co/Ei4XPHafsT pic.twitter.com/Jtia28N3Ey

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) August 21, 2023

Once again, the Eagles will have an array of targets for Hurts to throw to. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert return for the Eagles this season. However, the defense should miss the presence of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps.

That being said, there are still ample playmakers on the defensive side of the ball for Philadelphia to have success. Led by Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Fletcher Fox, and Brandon Graham, the Eagles will be terrific in the box.

Nevertheless, the rest of the NFC East is showing signs of improvement. Philly is likely to have company in the divisional race. There appears to be better value than the Eagles’ NFC playoff odds in 2023.

San Francisco 49ers (+375)

On the other side of the country, the 49ers are not expected to have much company. As our top pick to win the NFC West, San Francisco should have it easy in their division this year. Consequently, the 49ers are expected to have one of the best records in the NFC.

Brock Purdy beat Trey Lance so badly for the starting job that the 49ers traded the former third-overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft for a fourth round pick from Dallas. There are people who doubt Purdy, but he did everything asked of him after replacing Jimmy Garoppolo.

Purdy is surrounded by one of the most well-rounded offenses in the NFL. The 49ers are one of the few offenses that does not necessarily require elite quarterback play.

That isn’t taking anything away from Purdy, because he still has to complete the passes and not make mistakes. Lance couldn’t figure out how to do it, but Purdy is excelling in allowing his elite playmakers to dictate games.

The elite 49ers’ defense, led by Nick Bosa, should be in top form. Short-field position and forced turnovers should be the norm with the Niners. After recovering from UCL surgery on his elbow, expect Purdy and the 49ers to be a top NFC contender.

Best NFC Championship Value Bet: Dallas Cowboys (+550)

The Eagles are feeling confident about this season. However, they can’t help but look over their shoulders at the Cowboys and New York Giants. Dallas, in particular, could finally be ready to get over their playoff demons and go to their first Super Bowl since 1996.

Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith aren’t here, but the current roster looks like a major contender. But, if the Cowboys are going to go deep in the Playoffs, it will be because of their defense. Dak Prescott and the offense have to do their part, but the defense may very well be the catalyst.

Micah Parsons has the best odds to win the 2023-24 DPOY award at Bovada. Including Parsons, they have a Top 5 cornerback tandem with the newly-acquired Stephon Gilmore and Trevon Diggs.

It isn’t like the Cowboys won’t be able to win games with Dak Prescott and the offense, though. There is a lot to like about this receiving core, which includes CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Brandin Cook in his first year in Dallas.

We have the Cowboys upsetting the Eagles to capture the NFC East title. Furthermore, we’re taking it a step further in the NFC.

Every sack from Micah Parsons during the 2022 regular season 🔥👀

How many will he get in 2023? 🤔 #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/MhWu0hIbZX

— Ernie (@es3_09) August 19, 2023

The Cowboys are one of the favorites in the NFL conference championship odds for the NFC. However, this is also a good value bet on the Cowboys at +550.

Along with the Cowboys, the Lions at +850 might be worth considering. The Cowboys have the depth and defensive advantage over the Lions, though.

The way we see it, if Prescott doesn’t turn the ball over at a high frequency, the Cowboys will be in a prime position. In 2022, Prescott passed for 2,860 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions.

This was a drop from 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in his first season after suffering a devastating ankle injury⁶.

Mike McCarthy has to tell Prescott that he has a great supporting cast and defense to rely on. He does not have to play hero ball and take unnecessary risks.

If the message gets through to Prescott, the Cowboys have the tools to win the NFC Championship.

Best NFC Championship Longshot Bet: Green Bay Packers (+2300)

The departure of Aaron Rodgers is probably better for the organization. The Rodgers drama had been going on for too long in Wisconsin. There has been no secret about Rodgers wanting out of town for at least a few years now.

Similar to when Rodgers waited behind Brett Favre, Jordan Love has been waiting his turn behind a future Hall of Fame quarterback. Love was drafted with the 20th overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft.

He has spent little time in regular season games, but Love has looked composed and well-prepared to run the offense any time he’s had an opportunity. Also, Love doesn’t have an empty cupboard.

That’s the type of drive you want to bring into the regular season.

Glad Matt LaFleur kept him in for another drive.

Jordan Love 🤝 Christian Watson. pic.twitter.com/BrLP0tpd1e

— RELA 𝕏 (@itzzSKL) August 26, 2023

Love has some weapons to work with this season. Expect Love to grow and mature alongside receivers Romeo Dobbs and Christian Watson. A safety valve out of the backfield like Aaron Jones helps significantly as well.

Some defensive players will be required to step up, notably second-year linebacker, Quay Walker. Rashan Gary, Lukas Van Ness, and Kenny Clark make this a fairly capable defense.

The Packers may not win the NFC North, but a wildcard and surprise run in the Playoffs could be in the cards.

NFC Championship Prediction: San Francisco 49ers (+375)

The 49ers aren’t perfect, but you can say the same for every team in the conference. The NFC Championship odds reveal what should be a competitive conference in 2023-24.

However, this is the most well-balanced team on both sides of the ball. They are the one team in the NFC that doesn’t have to depend on their quarterback so heavily. Best of luck to the Eagles if Hurts is out for a significant period of time.

After a frustrating exit in the playoffs last year, expect the 49ers to come back this season with an appearance in the inaugural Super Bowl in Las Vegas.